It’s already time for your 2021 NBA preview. If you feel like basketball just ended, you are right, it did. Lebron James won his 4th NBA Championship for the Lakers as his brand building has now maximized on the west coast to go with the Midwest and the Southeast. The only places for him now to win a title are Texas and the Northeast. While the rest of the NBA is playing checkers, Lebron is playing Risk. If he makes a move for Kamchata we will know something is up. Meanwhile, the NBA itself faces it’s greatest challenge, making sure it's players get a Covid vaccine before the elderly and care providers. Just like they did with the testing. Otherwise, NBA players out of a bubble are going to be a disaster. If you thought NFL guys and MLB guys like to hit the town, wait till the NBA gets going. When it comes to the NBA, the off court action is always more interesting than the on court product. What super-teams are being formed, who is going to be a free agent, who got traded where, when and why? And this doesn’t even factor in the personal drama of who is with a Kardashian this season, what GMs have burner accounts, and who said what about whom. The NBA has become the WWE of real sports where heels are born, baby faces are popular and gimmicks are everywhere. If you just like to sit back and watch the games, you probably like college hoops. I like the whole package. So let’s take a look at the upcoming season with 10 storylines. 5 this week and 5 next week. And 10 predictions. 5 this week, 5 next week.
Can Lebron run it back?
Probably. Look, Lebron is a tank. He has physically dominated the league for 15 years now. Even now, in a league full of Space Jam like mutants, Lebron is still the biggest and the baddest. Pairing him with fellow mutant Anthony Davis only makes him that much stronger. Lebron has never played with a better fit than Davis. Wade might have been better (he was), but his skill set overlapped with Lebron too much. The only worry I have with the Lakers is the short rest. They just finished the bubble. Lebron cares for his body in a very careful way, planning for the long break to revitalize himself. He won’t get that this year. He is going to have to accept rest days this season if he is going to play in the playoffs. They have put better pieces around him than last year when it was a bunch of vets signed at the minimum. Players like Dennis Schroder and Montrzel Harrell offer way more offensive upside then the group last year. Finally, who is going to stop them? The Celtics lost depth, the Raptors didn’t get better, the Warriors lost Klay, the Clippers are a chemistry nightmare, and the Nuggets can’t be the best team with a slow, immobile big. I simply don’t see any other team having a chance against a healthy Lakers squad. So rest now, win later.
Can Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid ever work together?
No. It’s just that simple. Both of them need spacing around them to be the maximum amount of effective, and both of them destroy the other’s spacing. Combined they are great on defense, with both being borderline All-defensive team players. On offense though, the court isn’t shaped right for the two of them. Simmons needs to work an inside-out game, like Rajon Rondo did with the Celtics. He needs to get in the middle of the paint and score or distribute. Guess who else needs to be in the paint. Joel. Sure, he CAN spot up on the three point line, but that makes him a waste. There are tons of bigs who can stand at the three point line and shoot .320. He is barely an average shooter out there. In order to justify his pick and roll deficiencies he needs to be able to punish smaller bigs under the basket. But he can’t do that with Simmons’ man standing there. Unless Simmons can develop a league average outside jumper, the 76ers are doomed.
Can the Bucks finally get their shit together?
Maybe. The problem of this team comes down to the player who has the ball at the end of games being bad at shooting. Giannis still can barely hit league average on threes. Until he can, teams will keep sagging into the middle to force him to shoot. Switching out the poorer shooting, worse defending, and less clutch Eric Bledsoe for Jrue Holiday was a very smart move and worth the upgrade. Khris Middleton is a good third option. Then… things start to get dicey. Brook Lopez is so slow he has no chance on pick and rolls. Dante DiVincenzo is developing into a league average 5th starter. After that, low end NBA roll players. It’s still going to come down to Giannis at the end of games. He has to be able to punish teams from the outside. My guess is, he still can’t.
What the Hell is going on with James Harden.
James Harden has finally shown signs of trickling into camp this week, but his message is very clear. He is not invested in the 2021 Houston Rockets. It’s fair to wonder, though, if the Houston Rockets are invested in the 2021 Houston Rockets. After a trade for the worst contract in the NBA, the broken John Wall, and the release of several high profile veterans over the last 6 months like Robert Covington, Clint Capela, Russell Westbrook and Austin Rivers. The roster is a broken mess that shows no sign of competing for a championship now, or in the years to come (since they traded away all their draft picks). With little prospect of competing in a stacked Western conference, it is fair to wonder if James Harden is interested for sitting through a pointless rebuild at this stage in his career. Of course, the reason he isn’t being considered by better teams is the massive usage rate he requires. A team like Brooklyn isn’t going to trade for him to stand on the three point line and spot up. James Harden has become a one man team with his 1-1 game and his demand to always have the ball (the main reason he pushed to get rid of high usage players like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook). Until he can show he is a team player, he won’t be sought out by the best teams. The irony is, in order for the Rockets to be good, he has to keep being selfish. No one else on the team can score. This feels like something of an infinite loop situation. It’s a shame, because James Harden is the best 1-1 scorer I have ever seen. Unfortunately for him, the NBA isn’t a 1-1 league. The best teams usually win.
Can Jason Tatum turn into a superstar.
In order for the Celtics to make the NBA finals this season, Jason Tatum needs to become his former mentor Kobe Bryant (RIP). That is asking a lot of a young player (only a handful of players have ever been that great on the wing). It’s probably asking too much. With the departure of Gordon Hayward and the decline of Kemba Walker, however, the future has to be now. While they are a very tough unit defensively, and a very smart offense, Tatum needs to be a player who can go off like Damian Lillard or James Harden in order for them to have a shot at the finals. He made a big leap last year, and he needs to make another one this year. That will be tough with defenses keying on him more than ever. He will also need to be able to distribute the ball better. His modest assist numbers do not reflect a player who makes his team better. Even James Harden can fill up the stat sheet with assists. If Tatum can turn into this player, it will allow the rest of the team to find their role. Kemba Walker can play very limited minutes, Jalen Brown can fulfill his destiny as a Shawn Marion type player who fills up the box score, Marcus Smart can wreak defensive havoc and their rotating army of quick footed bigs can slide around on defense and set screens on offense. It all depends on whether Jason Tatum is elite or not.
Prediction 1: The Lakers repeat, and it isn’t all that hard.
Prediction 2: The Raptors win the East and go back to the finals
Prediction 3: James Wiseman is the Rookie of the Year
Prediction 4: Luka Doncic is the MVP
Prediction 5: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is most improved