We are officially entering the halfway point of most fantasy football seasons (most leagues skip week 17). For almost half of you, the first half of the season has been a disappointment. For a select few, we are entering into desperation mode. If you don’t win this week, you are toast. This should mean emptying the vaults. If you have someone like Miles Sanders or Raheem Mostert, you need to trade them this week for help now. But who should you trade for. This column is here to offer some help for the truly desperate.
I am not the world’s greatest fantasy football player by any stretch of the imagination, but I am a very solid player. Still, to I tend to be a bet “Hedger” so I have brought in a friend of mine who IS a great fantasy football player, Zach. Zach almost always drafts phenomenally, almost never loses a trade to anyone but me and makes great in-season additions. His advice is worth heeding. In this column, we are going to go head to head in a game called Love, Date, Wait.
We will take a look at three players from each position that have something in common and give you our advice to love them, date them, or wait on them. Most of these players should be available for a trade in your leagues, since they are not top players at their position. As so many women (and men) protest, all the good men seem to be taken. While these folks aren’t the best available, they could be just what you need to sneak into the playoffs. Best of all, they themselves are probably available, foibles and all. True love doesn’t wait. It makes a trade right now.
Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert
The rookies are now officially all taking over their teams with Tua Tagovailoa taking over in Miami. Burrow has been a starter since week one, and Herbert just needed his team to get “poked” in the right direction. So far, both Herbert and Burrow have been universally regarded as successes. Will Tua? Zach and I are here to help. Zach’s choices will appear italicized. Mine will just be wrong.
Joe Burrow
Date - This will probably come as a surprise given his performance last weekend. He torched the Browns and coolly worked in his big three of Boyd, Higgins and Green. I see one huge problem though. That was their last game against the Browns. Burrow has torn the Browns apart, as the former OSU man and Ohio native has taken delight in facing his in-state rival. Against non-Browns related teams, he is… much worse. In standard scoring, he is averaging a paltry 14.5 points per game in those. His remaining schedule includes the Steelers twice, the Ravens again (who crushed him), Miami’s cornerbacks, Washington’s D line (if you look, their D is better than you realize), and the Tennessee Titans. The only GOOD matchups are Dallas and Houston. While he will probably have a few good games, you wouldn’t start him against anyone but Dallas here.
Love - Face it, the Bengals suck, in fact each of these bachelors suck in my opinion but Joe has more long term appeal in my opinion for a number of different reasons. Though slightly boring, Joe will be consistent in an offense that has a few more good years with Mixon in the picture. This window will last longer than AJ Green’s window of departure but let’s hope that brings in more talent, draft picks etc. Cincinnati has to build around him. There is no other option. However, keep in mind that going after Burrow may never be anything special if you are the type who likes flair or variety. It’s sort of like when you always date the same looking girl? I.e. Cincinatti Bengals obsession with blonde/redheaded quarterbacks: Boomer, Dalton, Palmer. But Burrow is different. He is young, he is a winner and will be easy to shop if he has a slightly more vanilla bean statline than Andy Dalton has.
Justin Herbert
LOVE - Herbert has shown incredible deep ball accuracy, running ability and an ability to spread the ball around. Even with skill position players like Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler missing time, Herbert has not missed a beat. Just last weekend, he obliterated Jacksonville with one of the best QB games of this year. Herbert will be getting back Ekeler (a great pass catcher) and Allen looked fine this weekend. I think he has the best mix of schedule, talent and leaky defense to create scoring for the rest of the year. This is the only one of these three I would consider going steady with every week.
WAIT - Oddly, I feel like Justin Herbert may actually be a better quarterback than Phillip Rivers ever had the potential to be but Justin Herbert is playing in an awful and aging offense that has no identity and can’t seem to identify a starting running back because all of them are grenades. Herbert has been great at seeing the field and breaking down plays it seems so far but the truth is, in the fantasy world, he just isn’t sexy. He is untradeable, he is boring. He’s just nothing to write home about and you’ll ultimately need to drop him.
Tua Tagovailoa
WAIT - Will Tua be good this year? If you look at the situation, it isn’t hard to be optimistic. The Dolphins offense has been one of the NFLs best in recent weeks. A lot of credit for that has been given to Ryan Fitzpatrick. While Fitzpatrick has played fine, I will remind you that he was a career backup before this gig. Devante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Adam Sheehan and Preston Williams are not big names, but there is a lot of talent there. For a player known for his accuracy, huge targets like these are going to be a boon. Fitzpatrick made a habit of lobbing to ball up to these guys and letting them win battles. So can Tua. I wouldn’t dwell on his performance in his first week against a stout Rams group, but following that game, the schedule gets very inviting. Arizona, San Diego (LA doesn’t want them, and I don’t want them there), the Jets, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Las Vegas and Buffalo are all possibly good matchups for a quarterback. Tua is also the only one defenses haven’t been able to see tape of at this point to tailor their defenses. Invest now, start later.
DATE - Tua was an absolute stud in college and now has promise to potentially live up to his overhyped draft status. I do think he’s worth taking out for a few weeks so you don’t miss it if he goes off, but the window is small. Draft him, wait until he has one good week, and then ship him to the guy in your league that likes to take risks. You know the guy, the one who always has a foolproof draft plan, also the guy that announces his picks with an obnoxious dissertation that usually starts with “Sleeper!” or “Bet you didn’t see THAT coming”, or “Booyah”. So yeah, it’s the booyah guy. Or simply just your league fish fan. Tua will be the best night you’ve had in a while until she falls over drunk and you have to roll her into her Uber.
Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones III and Kareem Hunt
These three are all facing a return to backfield committee life with their football spouse returning (or appearing in Helaire’s case). Which of these would make a good trade target now, with their owner starting to grow concerned about having to share their backfield with another man.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
LOVE - None of these guys is going to give you a full bout of confidence, but The Fresh Prince feels like the safest bet to me for a number of reasons. First, Kansas City is a team that is going to put up a lot of points every week. It doesn’t matter who they play. Second, they will be ahead a lot, so they will run to preserve that lead. Third, they throw to their backs a lot, and, at this point, Helaire is the better receiving back option. Then there is the issue of the replacement waiting in the wings. Leveon Bell has proven himself a much worse player than Leonard Fournette and Nick Chubb. Bell doesn’t have much left in the tank. Finally, Helaire is the one of the three who has been identified as marriage material by his team. Hunt and Jones are viewed as short term rebounds.
LOVE - If you don’t play your cards right, CEH will be the one that got away. CEH was the hottest draft pick in the first few weeks of the season, however he’s having commitment issues lately and I am feeling like it's not you, it's actually him. Or perhaps Andy Reid can’t see the field to call the right plays, and the steam that appears lost in CEH is inside Andy’s face shield. However, he will bounce back, as will the offense and you will still have incredible power for trade or if this is a keeper league to shop him as KC is a powerhouse of an offense.
Kareem Hunt
DATE - This is a tough call for second place, but I am going with Hunt for several reasons. Chubb is the unquestioned starter of the team. Helaire and Jones are the starters of their teams. Hunt is also banged up and playing through several injuries right now, any of which could be aggravated and lead to missed time. Chubb was the better back and a touchdown machine while healthy. Hunt has been solid, but not as spectacular. Some things to note here though… if you are in a PPR, Hunt is still a solid pickup because he is the featured third down back. He doesn’t have a high ceiling with Chubb back, but the receptions give him a nice floor. He also has a decent schedule now. Hunt is more likely to put up points next week than Jones since Chubb is still out. He makes the best immediate rebound guy.
WAIT - Baker Mayfield has great commercials and an occasionally ironic mustache. That is ALL you are getting from Cleveland. Chubb is just a slight ‘chubb’ right now but will return to full form and then where does that leave you with Kareem. At this point, I see Baker going full Willie Beamon and calling his own shots, in fact I’d argue that Baker may have never actually read a single page in any play book. With Chubb returning, and possibly looking to split carries and nobody else for Baker to heave the ball up to, I see no point in going after him now.
Ronald Jones II
WAIT - Jones is a worse option for PPR than Hunt due to his lack of involvement in the passing game (something Fournette is much better at). Jones also has a tough schedule coming up in the immediate future. This team is basically turning into The Bachelor house with Godwin, Evans, Brown, Fournette, Jones and Gronk are all wanting attention. So why is Jones listed as wait, and not date? His playoff schedule is incredible. Atlanta twice, Detroit and Minnesota. WOW. If you are a team that is doing well and can afford to hang on, I would do it. Maybe by then some of the other Bachelors will be eliminated.
DATE - Ronald Jones was the cute ‘girl-next-door’ type that you chatted at the bar with about good books, exotic teas and places you like to travel to and then her hot friends showed up and ruined everything and made it about them, took her away and gave you that “You’re not good enough for my friend” look. If you have Jones, pair him with one of his friends, Godwin or Evans or maybe even Antonio Brown this offense seems like it’s going to swallow running backs whole. Note: Since Tom Brady has had three 1,000 yard rushers in his entire career and, unlike Ronald Jones, none of them had boring names. They had names like Stevan Ridley, Antowain Smith, and who can forget BenJarvus Green-Ellis. However, until you have another option, he will do the job at 15ppg roughly and sometimes get that extra punch in so long as Fournette is being Leonard Fournette.
Wide Receiver: Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins and CeeDee Lamb
All three of these youngsters have had very hot starts to the season but are not the first option in their offenses. Going young can be risky, as there can be immaturity issues. This also applies to football.
Tee Higgins
LOVE - It’s hard not to see the connection that Joe Burrow and Higgins have established. Since getting a major role, Higgins has done nothing but rack up fantasy points. Higgins primary competition for outside touches is the whiny and inefficient AJ Green. While Tyler Boyd is the guy most likely to rack up catches and points, Higgins is the big play threat, and the guy Burrow will spend the rest of his life with. I don’t see why a team working toward its future would prioritize the development of AJ Green over Higgins moving toward the end of the year. The schedule is bad, but all that means for Higgins is more throwing. Targets equal points for WRs.
LOVE - I don’t love Tee Higgins because I love Joe Burrow but it seems like whoever truly runs the show in Cincinnati is how I play Madden. Simple. Pick one guy on one side, throw the ball to him, and only run so you can keep giving the ball to the same guy. I don’t think Higgins is anything special nor anybody else, and it certainly isn’t A.J. Green’s team anymore but this year it seems like the dude in charge is in Higgins career mode and it's going to be his year.
Chase Claypool
DATE - Chase is a very attractive young man who will generate a lot of suitors. There are some problems on the radar for him this year however. The first is his role. When everyone is healthy, he is clearly Dionte Johnson’s backup. Johnson has been out a lot this season, but that doesn’t mean he will be the rest of the year. He is expected to play next week. He also faces a situation where his quarterback is a seasoned veteran who doesn’t key in on one player. He works the matchups, to find the best player to target each week. Thus you have no idea when it will be a Claypool week, a Johnson week, or a Shuster week. Barring injury, you will have a hard time figuring out when to play Claypool. This feels like a player who will be on your bench for the 4 TD games and in your lineup for those 2 catch 25 yard outings. Dating someone hoping they will change (into a weekly contributor) is generally not a great idea.
WAIT - So, it was one amazing night that you are going by. Really? It’s lust folks. Just lust. I know it was a night you’ll never forget, but now you sort of wish you hadn’t because the time to pick up Claypool and trade him happened simultaneously. Pittsburgh is still undefeated but Big Ben is old now and may not even know Claypool’s first name.
CeeDee Lamb
WAIT - This guy has some bad luck. It seemed he had dropped into the perfect situation in Dallas, an elite QB, elite O-line, and stars on the outside to leave the middle of the field open for him. Well, that hasn’t worked out so well. He got catfished. The beautiful Dak Prescott profile picture he fell in love with has turned into Andy Dalton. Now, even Dalton is out with a serious looking concussion. The offensive line is in shambles. So why wait? Three of his four fantasy playoff matchups are Cincinnati, Philadelphia and the Giants. That is a murderer’s row of fantasy points. If Dalton can come back, the line get a little healthier, or the team go out and get a better QB (Fitzpatrick?) his target share in the middle of the field is the sort of high floor that is nice as a flex option if you already have a great team.
DATE - The problem with CeeDee isn’t his attitude, or lack of actual talent, it’s Jerry Jones. With Dak Prescott out, Old Man River gets to run this team exactly how he wants to. That may or may not include CeeDee in its near or immediate future. He is going to be the fantasy equivalent of Miles Austin. It’s going to be as toxic as his relationship with his girlfriend appeared to be on draft night when he ripped his phone out of her hands. With Andy Dalton playing the game of 500 with his receivers in an offense he likely can’t comprehend that seems to be scratching Zeke’s back more than anyone, I think CeeDee is going to produce two weeks of actual fantasy impact. Sell High, or buy low.
Tight End: TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant and Mike Gesicki
These three are young rising stars. None of them have gotten out to quite the start their owners were hoping for however. Perhaps one or more of them can turn it around. Or… maybe they aren’t who we thought they were.
Noah Fant
LOVE - This week was not a great week for Fant in his return from an ankle injury. He did manage a 3-36, so that was ok, but most of the time, he seemed to be out of the mix. When I put him in the love spot, here is what I am thinking. Of all three of these guys, he seems most likely to become the one you take home to your family this season. The Broncos will need to pass a lot. They don’t have a great team with all the injuries, so they will be behind a fair amount. Fant has shown good chemistry with Drew Lock in the past. The other options, as constituted, have not. Now, I don’t think Lock is good. I think he is bad. But even bad quarterbacks can fixate on a player and make them great. Think Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Fant seems like the best bet to get this treatment. With the abundance of OK tight ends, you want someone who can stand out.
WAIT - You know the girl who says she is always ‘fresh out of a breakup’. That’s John Elway. His series of bad quarterback decisions including the rise then fall of Peyton, have all left the Broncos with zero offensive talent, including two talented running backs who are clearly fringe RBs in this offense. Fant should however thrive in this offense but he, like me, had to google who his quarterback actually is. Fant is seeing looks and touches but Denver is red zone averse and it’s not worth it. Fant is going to take you to the Promised Land one Sunday afternoon and then not text or call you back, but will casually like your photos on Facebook and follow your story on Instagram. Dump!
TJ Hockenson
DATE- This isn’t very fair, because I like Hockenson, I just think he has a low ceiling. It has become clear that the plan in Detroit is to run the ball a lot, and throw out of necessity. This has limited the stats of usual stat magnets like Matt Stafford, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones. Hockenson has put up solid TE 1 numbers, and I think that will continue, but I simply think his upside is capped around TE 7. They just don’t seem to throw enough to justify a higher number. He is a good pick if TE is the only hole on your roster, but if you need a miracle, I like Fant’s upside more.
LOVE - Hockenson plays in one of the most poorly managed teams with a perpetually boring offense, whose locker room seems to be planning a weekly mutiny on ‘that guy that used to wear the red windbreaker in New England’. TJ showed promise last year to be a top tier TE and he has the consistently predictable Stafford tossing him the ball. Sometimes in fantasy that is all that you need. Injuries often change this offense completely so I think I have stayed away from literally anybody that plays for the Lions since Megatron’s prime. He is the one you love but not really be in love with. He’s the one you can take to the company party and everyone will say, “Oh, she was so….nice”. Worth having, but he doesn’t need to be around forever.
Mike Gesicki
WAIT - While Gesicki has been the worst of these three when on the field, and it seems like Gesicki has a vanishing act at times, I want to see what happens when Tua takes over. Here is what gives me hope. Tua has the arm strength and accuracy to hit a big target with a Hindu-deityesque catch radius like Gesicki in ways Fitzpatrick could only dream of. Second, young QBs tend to love tight ends. They are safe throws over the middle of the field. Gesicki is actually the most talented receiver in this group, the question is how much Tua will target him. Sometimes you have to get to know someone before you see all the good in them. Sometimes you find they are exactly who you thought they were.
DATE - Gesicki’s stats are confusing until you look at the logo on his helmet. Fitzmagic loves his receivers and plays madden like someone who doesn’t realize they have running plays. However, it’s Tua Time and we simply don’t know how this offense will work around him. I wish Tua was permitted to have a Hover-Round on the field but he has likely reached his out of pocket max for his insurance so he will be forced to use his legs to move. This could spell good or bad days for Mikey but nothing yet that screams consistent to me. If you have the stomach to sit through an entire Dolphins game, pay attention to Tua and his ability to stay comfortably IN the pocket. Sit tight and keep an eye on him.Ho