There’s a chance - and I’m not saying that it’s likely, nor that it’s probable, but the chance does indeed exist - that the 2022 midterm elections are a blowout that dwarfs all blowouts. Republicans do so well that they make 2010 and 1994 - when they seized the majority in Congress and outdid the polls - seem like afterthoughts. Again, it’s not probable, but the chance does exist. Consider, if you will, the following data points:
Even for an incumbent President facing his first midterms, where the incumbent party typically underperforms, Joe Biden has ridiculously low approval ratings;
Republicans aren’t just competing in swing districts or states, they’re expanding the map dramatically. They may well win the governorship in New York state, which hasn’t seen a Republican elected statewide in 28 years - nearly a whole generation. They have a multitude of competitive U.S. Senate and U.S. House races all across the Northeast, and all of their incumbents in that region will win handily.
The only places in the Northeast where they may lose seats are Maryland and Massachusetts, where popular centrist governors were either termed out or didn’t run for re-election and were replaced by far-right candidates who will almost assuredly lose on Tuesday.
Another example of this phenomenon is Pennsylvania, where Republicans could have picked up the governorship if they’d nominated a centrist. Instead, they nominated a far-right, Trump-supporting extremist who will lose handily.
At the federal level, though, Republicans are expanding the map. They’re running competitive statewide or U.S. House races in Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania.
Let’s focus for a moment on that last point: Expanding the map federally. There was always one race that was going to be close in New England, the Second Congressional District where I live. That district features an exact rematch of the 2018 race between Bruce Poliquin (R), Jared Golden (D), and independent Tiffany Bond, who doesn’t live in the district. This is one of the most competitive House races in the nation, and both parties have poured money into it - that’s not unexpected.
What is unexpected, though, is that Republicans have also expanded the playing field well beyond Maine’s Second Congressional District. Two years ago, it may have seemed that Maine’s Second was the only New England House seat in play. Now, that’s clearly not true. Consider, for a moment, the other House seats that are - at least nominally - competitive:
New Hampshire’s First
New Hampshire’s Second
Rhode Island’s Second
Connecticut’s Fifth
All of these are districts that, even in a wave midterm election favoring the minority party, should be relatively safe. Other than the Rhode Island Second, they are all represented by incumbents, who are ordinarily favored by default. In the Rhode Island Second, the Republican candidate is a former mayor who ran for governor twice - Allan Fung. While he didn’t exactly do well in either of those races, he wasn’t an embarrassment either, given the current sorry state of the Rhode Island Republican Party. That gave him the stature to run for Congress, and it’s working out pretty well for him so far: nearly every poll shows this race very competitive. In a Republican environment, he’ll probably win.
Connecticut’s Fifth is a different story: It’s a typical Democrat-held, yet competitive, district, much like Maine’s Second. Still, though, in the past, the Republicans haven’t played around much in this district, unlike in Maine’s Second; it shows that they are expanding the field even to similarly competitive districts in overwhelmingly uncompetitive states. If a particular district is potentially competitive, the partisan nature of the state as a whole may well dissuade both national parties from investing many resources there, especially if in it’s an expensive media market, like Connecticut. We see a bit of an example of this in Massachusetts’ 9th District, which hasn’t drawn much outside spending, despite looking competitive on paper.
All of these signals, so far, point towards a mixed result, rather than a huge wave. But zooming out, we see the following issues at the statewide level:
Nominal incumbent Kathy Hochul appears to be in danger in New York state, requiring intervention from the Clintons on her behalf;
The Oregon gubernatorial election, featuring a bizarre three-way race, may well lead to a Republican pickup;
The incumbent governor in Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, is polling far closer than she ought to be to her too-conservative opponent, Tudor Dixon;
All Republican incumbents, from Greg Abbott to Chris Sununu to Brian Kemp to Ron DeSantis, are likely to win handily.
All of this says that Maine ought to be highly competitive on Tuesday, at every possible level. If it is, Republicans probably had an amazing day nationwide. The national parties ought to be pouring tons of money into Paul LePage’s attempt to reclaim his old job, as well as Bruce Poliquin’s similar comeback attempt - and they are, to be sure. In the Second District especially, Maine has seen tons of spending. Those efforts are likely to trickle down to state-level candidates for the Maine House and the Maine Senate, as well.
As a resident of one of the most targeted towns - and states, and congressional districts - I can attest to this personally. Every ad on TV is a political ad, and that’s all I see online now, too. Every day I come home to at least three mailers; both parties seem to be pouring tons of money into Gardiner.
Yet, I can’t say with confidence what will happen on Election Day, especially locally, either at a statewide level or here in Gardiner. Either LePage or Poliquin could win or lose; Republicans have the potential to take the majority in either the Maine House or Senate, or neither. It is, to be blunt, a total crapshoot, just like the current state of play for the United States Senate. It may make Election Day entertaining, but it sure does make it impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy.
Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying.