Adley Rutschman Might be the American League MVP
He may not be the having the best year in baseball, but has any player meant more to his team this year?
What does the Most Valuable Player award mean to you?
The Baseball Writers Association of America, which created the award and runs the awards voting, does not define the meaning of “Most Valuable”:
There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.
The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:
1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2. Number of games played.
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4. Former winners are eligible.
5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.
You are also urged to give serious consideration to all your selections, from 1 to 10. A 10th-place vote can influence the outcome of an election. You must fill in all 10 places on your ballot. Only regular-season performances are to be taken into consideration.
Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, including pitchers and designated hitters.
“Most Valuable” therefore ends up in the eye of the beholder. Maybe Aaron Judge is your idea of Most Valuable, as he leads the league in WAR, Slugging, OPS, Total Bases, Home Runs, RBI, Walks, Runs Created, Win Probability Average, and a bunch of other sabermetric categories. All for a winning team. Maybe the fact that Judge looks poised to break the AL single-season home run record is a factor to you.1
But if you are looking at the player who might mean the most to his team, that player might be someone else. Adley Rutschman.
The idea that Rutschman is an MVP candidate is something I freestyled last week
But when you look at the numbers, there is a serious case here.
Zach Eisner for Baltimore Sports and Life writes:
When Adley Rutschman was called up to the majors on May 21st, the Orioles were 16-25. As of today, the Orioles are 63-58. Now, a lot has contributed to this unexpected 47-33 run; the O’s bullpen has been one of the best in the MLB and starting pitchers like Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer have far exceeded expectations, but there’s no denying that everything changed the day Adley Rutschman took his first big league at-bat.
After the games of May 20th, the Orioles were 14 games out of first place. They were 6.5 games out of a wild card spot. After a quarter of the season, the Orioles were on pace to finish 63-99 for the entire year.
The Orioles are currently, incidentally, 63-58. With 41 games to go, the Orioles have equaled their expected wins for the entire year pre-Rutschman.
The Orioles are also 11 games out of first place. But more importantly, the team is 2.5 games out of a wild card spot, and briefly held possession of that wildcard spot last weekend.
That 47-33 record the Orioles have since Rutschman’s recall? That’s a full-season pace for 95 wins.
Eisner goes on to compare Rutschman to every player in the American League since his call-up. The stats are telling:
Here is where Rutschman ranks in some of the key statistical categories amongst all American League players (with 150+ PA) in the last 2 months:
5th in OPS
4th in OBP
3rd in BB%
2nd in doubles
2nd in WAR
Once again, that’s not in comparison to all AL rookies or to all AL catchers, that’s to every single player in the AL. And for those curious, the only player ahead of Rutschman in WAR is Aaron Judge who just so happens to be having a historically great season.
And those statistics don’t even get into what he means to the pitching staff defensively and in the way he catches a game. Statistically, he makes the pitching staff better in so many ways.
On top of all of this, the Orioles have the best record in the American League East since Rutschman’s call-up.
So it goes back to what your definition of Most Valuable is. If your idea of Most Valuable Player is the player having the best year, then Aaron Judge is the American League MVP and it isn’t particularly close.
But if your definition of Most Valuable Player is which player provides the most value to his team and their success, it starts to become a different conversation.
Aaron Judge is having a monster year, but on a team full of stars.
Shohei Ohtani is the most fascinating player in the world, but on a team that can’t get out of its own way.
Justin Verlander? Having the best season of his career at 39(15-3, 1.95 ERA), even better than when he won the MVP in 2011. Dylan Cease? Another great pitcher having a great year (12-5, 2.09 ERA). Both serious Cy Young Award cotnenders. But they only pitch every five days, even if they do pitch for a contender. Does that make them the most valuable?
Rutschman? He is the heart and soul of a team that took off after he was recalled.
I have no expectations that Rutschman wins the MVP, especially given the monster year that Judge is having. But voters would be foolish to overlook his contributions to this Orioles team and how his arrival transformed this team to a contender.
Honestly, the 61 that Roger Maris hit in 1961 is the real record. The only players that hit more in a year are Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire (2x) and Sammy Sosa (3x) all did so with chemical assistance.