We are still 111 days away from the 2020 General Election and way too many people are talking about the 2024 Presidential Election.
Here are some recent headlines:
“Will Chris Christie run for president in 2024? Ex-N.J. governor says he wouldn’t rule it out.”- NJ.com, 7/14
“Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan’s memoir could foreshadow 2024 presidential bid”- Baltimore Sun, 7/15
“2020’s still up in the air, but there’s already buzz about the 2024 GOP presidential field”- Fox News,
“Why moderate Republicans will have it rough in 2024”- Washington Post, 7/9
“Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing”- Politico, 7/2
“In his VP, Joe Biden is picking the 2024 Democratic nominee”- Los Angeles Times, 7/10
“Talk of 2024 infects 2020 race”- ABC News, 7/8
That’s just in July and except for one story that’s just taking into account Republicans. And that ignores the subtle and not so subtle moves potential 2024 candidates took earlier this year. From Larry Hogan’s flirtation with a primary challenge to Rick Scott running Joe Biden attack ads in Iowa back in January, the “invisible primary” has been going almost as long as this public speculation.
Can we just not?
Look, the 2020 Presidential election seems like it began a century ago, but it really began the day after Donald Trump’s shocking victory in 2016.
(In truth it began earlier than that when you consider how many Republicans basically started running for the 2020 Republican nomination when they thought Trump’s campaign was a dead duck. That of course never materialized).
If there’s anything the 2016 Presidential election has taught us it’s that there is nothing that is certain. And even among Republicans, we have absolutely no idea what the lay of the land will look like six months from now, never mind January 2024.
Here are just a few of the things that are left to be decided:
Does President Trump get re-elected?
If he is re-elected, will he support Vice-President Pence in 2024? (not bloody likely considering Trump shows loyalty to nobody)
If Trump loses, by what margin?
If Trump loses, does Trumpism survive the defeat?
What does Congress do between now and 2023?
If Biden wins, does he run for re-election?
What’s the COVID pandemic doing? Is it over? How did it end?
What does the economy look like?
What other unforeseen calamities have occurred?
And none of that takes into account what the individual candidates themselves are doing?
I can name 14 credible potential candidates right off the top of my head:
Greg Abbott
John Bolton
Tom Cotton
Chris Chrisite
Ted Cruz
Rick DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Larry Hogan
Josh Howley
John Kasich
Mike Pompeo
Marco Rubio
Ben Sasse
Rick Scott
Many of those potential candidates are still in office and you never know what state issue might impact a governor’s campaign, or how the Congressional debate helps or hurts Senators.
And that doesn’t take into account anybody from outside politics that runs, nor anybody in the Trump family. When you look at some of the people who ran for the Republican nomination in the last thirty years, there are some people you just forgot that ever ran at all.
2024 speculation is a fun parlor game, and I’m sure that the PredictIt markets will be abuzz with speculation before Christmas. But can we please just try to survive the 2020 election first without any more of this goofy speculative talk?
As a political junkie, I am always looking ahead and speculating.