Cox Spreading Bogus Election Conspiracy
Candidate for Governor sharing more than questionable data on-air and online
Dan Cox, Republican candidate for Governor, has been on social media recently spreading questionable interpretations of Maryland’s election data.
As part of his support of Donald Trump’s bogus claims about the 20202 Presidential Election, Cox is purporting that there was serious election fraud in Maryland in 2020.
No evidence has actually been provided that any fraud happened, but that hasn’t stopped Cox from spreading these ridiculous and clownish claims.
Just as I alerted our Republican Central Committee after serving President Trump’s volunteer legal team in Philadelphia and my concerns which formed the basis for my MPIA request to our Board of Elections, my House District had statistically improbable high Democrat “votes”. See the analysis below.
From former USA Intelligence Analyst Seth Keshel...
Biden – 1,985,023 (65.36%)
Trump – 976,414 (32.15%)
Red – High/Rampant Fraud
Yellow – Possible/Likely Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
For a state overwhelmingly favoring Biden, there is a startling amount of excess Dem votes, including in overwhelmingly Republican territory. I have met with MD integrity group previously and the numbers in Carroll and Harford are eye-popping. Frederick went from 3 point Trump win to 10 point loss, with a Trump gain in votes. Anne Arundel is +44k over 2016 for Biden at a massive record, with a modest Trump gain.
Statewide, Obama (x2) and Clinton were all in 1.6mm range. Biden is up ~300k, with little explanation and solid GOP trends away from the massive Dem strongholds that crush the GOP in the south. Estimate 128k heavy for Biden, at lenient estimate.
Baltimore City trended clean. Doesn’t mean no fraud, just a clean trend.
Best Trump county audit targets – Harford (12k), Carroll (8k), Anne Arundel (20k) and Frederick (8k).
If Biden is 128k heavy, margin would be 63.8% to 33.6%, or 881k votes
Cox further made these claims in an embarrassing radio interview on WCBM today.
This entire line of thinking makes quite a bit of assumptions about the electorate in Maryland.
Let’s look at the statistics:
Voter turnout in Maryland increased from 71.98% in 2016 to 74.63% in 2020. That was an increase of 255,584 votes from ‘16 to ‘20.
Joe Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton by 5.03%. Donald Trump’s percentage of the vote decreased from 33.91% in 2016 to 32.15% in 2020.
The percentage of votes going to third-party candidates greatly decreased in Maryland from 2016-2020. In 2016, third-party candidates received 5.76% of the vote. In 2020, it was only 2.48%.
The data clearly explains why Joe Biden was “heavy” voters in certain jurisdictions. But the political environment explains everything else.
What election truthers fail to recognize is that Donald Trump is wildly unpopular outside of their own circles. Trump was always very much upside down in support in Maryland compared to any Republican President, and certainly compared to Governor Larry Hogan. Few, if any, independents broke to Trump during the election. A not insignificant percentage of Republicans did not vote for Trump. Many of them (myself included) voted third-party. Others voted for Biden, regardless of their political affiliation.
One of the counties that was identified in this “analysis” was Anne Arundel County. The data claims that Biden was “heavy” by 20,000 or so votes. Now, let’s take a look at the results for Anne Arundel County Executive from 2014 to 2018:
2014: Schuh (R) 107,952 (61.1%); Johnson (D) 68,379 (38.7%)
2018: Pittman (D) 118,572 (52.3%); Schuh (R) 107,905 (47.6%)
What drove the higher turnout for Steuart Pittman in 2018 over George Johnson in 2014? It was driven by voter dislike of Donald Trump, to the tune of 50,000 more votes for the Democratic candidate.
In Cox’s home county of Frederick County, we saw a similar increase in Democratic votes in the County Executive race from 2014 to 2018:
2014: Gardner (D) 42,444; (53.8%); Young (R) 36,131 (45.8%)
2018: Gardner (D) 55,692 ; (52.1%); Afzali (R) 46,063 (43.1%)
That was a 13,000 vote increase for Gardner from 2014 to 2018. Less than the “heavy” votes for Biden in Frederick County.
When you put the data into context, one could argue that Biden underperformed in Maryland compared to expectations.
Look, was there minor amounts of voter fraud in Maryland? Probably, at very small, unidentifiable levels. But to suggest that Anne Arundel, Carroll, Frederick, and Harford Counties were “heavy” with Biden votes ignores all of the evidence to the contrary and is pushed only by people whose minds have been warped by a delusional ex-President and want to spread their delusions across the entire state of Maryland.
Dan Cox is so enamored with this false narrative that he doesn’t even see the forest for trees. He thinks that spreading this kind of misinformation is going to help his campaign for Governor but all it really is doing is making it obvious to all people, both Republicans and Democrats, that Cox is completely unqualified to serve in any elected office, much less the highest office in the state.