Dan Cox, Republican candidate for Governor, has been on social media recently spreading questionable interpretations of Maryland’s election data.
As part of his support of Donald Trump’s bogus claims about the 2020 Presidential Election, Cox is purporting that there was serious election fraud in Maryland in 2020.
Just as I alerted our Republican Central Committee after serving President Trump’s volunteer legal team in Philadelphia and my concerns which formed the basis for my MPIA request to our Board of Elections, my House District had statistically improbable high Democrat “votes”. See the analysis below.
From former USA Intelligence Analyst Seth Keshel...
MARYLAND
Biden – 1,985,023 (65.36%)
Trump – 976,414 (32.15%)
Red – High/Rampant Fraud
Yellow – Possible/Likely Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
For a state overwhelmingly favoring Biden, there is a startling amount of excess Dem votes, including in overwhelmingly Republican territory. I have met with MD integrity group previously and the numbers in Carroll and Harford are eye-popping. Frederick went from 3 point Trump win to 10 point loss, with a Trump gain in votes. Anne Arundel is +44k over 2016 for Biden at a massive record, with a modest Trump gain.
Statewide, Obama (x2) and Clinton were all in 1.6mm range. Biden is up ~300k, with little explanation and solid GOP trends away from the massive Dem strongholds that crush the GOP in the south. Estimate 128k heavy for Biden, at lenient estimate.
Baltimore City trended clean. Doesn’t mean no fraud, just a clean trend.
Best Trump county audit targets – Harford (12k), Carroll (8k), Anne Arundel (20k) and Frederick (8k).
If Biden is 128k heavy, margin would be 63.8% to 33.6%, or 881k votes
This entire line of thinking makes quite a bit of assumptions about the electorate in Maryland.
Let’s look at the statistics:
Voter turnout in Maryland increased from 71.98% in 2016 to 74.63% in 2020. That was an increase of 255,584 votes from ‘16 to ‘20.
Joe Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton by 5.03%. Donald Trump’s percentage of the vote decreased from 33.91% in 2016 to 32.15% in 2020.
The percentage of votes going to third-party candidates greatly decreased in Maryland from 2016-2020. In 2016, third-party candidates received 5.76% of the vote. In 2020, it was only 2.48%.
The data clearly explains why Joe Biden was “heavy” voters in certain jurisdictions. But the political environment explains everything else.
What election truthers fail to recognize is that Donald Trump is wildly unpopular outside of their own circles. Trump was always very much upside down in support in Maryland compared to any Republican President, and certainly compared to Governor Larry Hogan. Few, if any, independents broke to Trump during the election. A not insignificant percentage of Republicans did not vote for Trump. Many of them (myself included) voted third-party. Others voted for Biden, regardless of their political affiliation.
One of the counties that was identified in this “analysis” was Anne Arundel County. The data claims that Biden was “heavy” by 20,000 or so votes. Now, let’s take a look at the results for Anne Arundel County Executive from 2014 to 2018:
2014: Schuh (R) 107,952 (61.1%); Johnson (D) 68,379 (38.7%)
What drove the higher turnout for Steuart Pittman in 2018 over George Johnson in 2014? It was driven by voter dislike of Donald Trump, to the tune of 50,000 more votes for the Democratic candidate.
In Cox’s home county of Frederick County, we saw a similar increase in Democratic votes in the County Executive race from 2014 to 2018:
2014: Gardner (D) 42,444; (53.8%); Young (R) 36,131 (45.8%)
When you put the data into context, one could argue that Biden underperformed in Maryland compared to expectations.
Look, was there minor amounts of voter fraud in Maryland? Probably, at very small, unidentifiable levels. But to suggest that Anne Arundel, Carroll, Frederick, and Harford Counties were “heavy” with Biden votes ignores all of the evidence to the contrary and is pushed only by people whose minds have been warped by a delusional ex-President and want to spread their delusions across the entire state of Maryland.
Dan Cox is so enamored with this false narrative that he doesn’t even see the forest for trees. He thinks that spreading this kind of misinformation is going to help his campaign for Governor but all it really is doing is making it obvious to all people, both Republicans and Democrats, that Cox is completely unqualified to serve in any elected office, much less the highest office in the state.
Brian, so, if you and your band of RINOS are so damn sure that these claims are bogus why not fly out to South Dakota and claim the 5 million dollars from Lindell? It's absolutely disgraceful, that you continue to push PROPAGANDA to the people of Annapolis and vicinity. The CIA'S "FRACTIONAL VOTING ALGORITHM SYSTEM been corrupting MARYLAND for decades..Just think you all will never have to work again ?
Brian, I appreciate you trying to provide reasons for the voter numbers Dan, Seth, and many others are questioning. Seth is only looking at trends using historical numbers and using the trends to make a prediction, a hypothesis. In the times of "follow the science", let's use the scientific method to prove or disprove the hypothesis.
A quick analysis of Anne Arundel County using publicly available state and county data appears to show a huge increase in the number of voters for Biden over past presidential elections. The raw numbers show a +44k (35%) increase for Biden over Clinton's 2016 numbers at the same time Trump gained votes, +5k (4%). The third party candidates lost 10k. If you assume all lost third party votes went to Biden then he still gained 34k (26%) votes over Hillary, still a whopping number.
Where did the 34k votes come from? There were not that many new Dem registrations assuming new GOP registrations voted for Trump. Could it be a large number of "inactive" voters voted in 2020?
The groups I am familiar with want to answer that question and a few other questions. They want a thorough analysis of all the data, the "whole truth".
A fair and transparent election is paramount to our republic. People want a full forensic audit to regain trust in our system, trust is something that is hard to maintain and easy to lose.
Cox Spreading Bogus Election Conspiracy
Brian, so, if you and your band of RINOS are so damn sure that these claims are bogus why not fly out to South Dakota and claim the 5 million dollars from Lindell? It's absolutely disgraceful, that you continue to push PROPAGANDA to the people of Annapolis and vicinity. The CIA'S "FRACTIONAL VOTING ALGORITHM SYSTEM been corrupting MARYLAND for decades..Just think you all will never have to work again ?
Brian, I appreciate you trying to provide reasons for the voter numbers Dan, Seth, and many others are questioning. Seth is only looking at trends using historical numbers and using the trends to make a prediction, a hypothesis. In the times of "follow the science", let's use the scientific method to prove or disprove the hypothesis.
A quick analysis of Anne Arundel County using publicly available state and county data appears to show a huge increase in the number of voters for Biden over past presidential elections. The raw numbers show a +44k (35%) increase for Biden over Clinton's 2016 numbers at the same time Trump gained votes, +5k (4%). The third party candidates lost 10k. If you assume all lost third party votes went to Biden then he still gained 34k (26%) votes over Hillary, still a whopping number.
Where did the 34k votes come from? There were not that many new Dem registrations assuming new GOP registrations voted for Trump. Could it be a large number of "inactive" voters voted in 2020?
The groups I am familiar with want to answer that question and a few other questions. They want a thorough analysis of all the data, the "whole truth".
A fair and transparent election is paramount to our republic. People want a full forensic audit to regain trust in our system, trust is something that is hard to maintain and easy to lose.