Welcome to the latest installment of The Duckpin Republican Presidential Power Rankings. These rankings will list, in my estimation, the contenders for the Republican nomination for President on a 1-10 scale. This list will be updated every month; maybe more once we get to later in the year.
The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the Republican nominee, but who is best positioned to win the nomination at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time.
#10: Ex-President Donald Trump(FL) (Previous: 10)
Trump’s problem is that he has a ceiling of around 28% of the vote in a multi-candidate race. Trump’s best asset right now is that he also seems to have a floor or around 28% of the vote in a multi-candidate race. So says a new poll on the state of the 2023 Presidential race. I have no idea how Trump overcomes his ceiling. And yet, it is difficult to discount him with that kind of floor. Especially considering that’s about how he started the 2016 race that ultimately saw him win the nomination. Of course, his absolutely stupid attack on Ron DeSantis probably not going to land beyond his core supporters.
#9: Governor Chris Sununu (MD) (Previous: NR)
Sununu told CNN that he’s thinking about running. But he starts with the same problem that Tom Harkin had in the 1992 Democratic primary. If Sununu wins the New Hampshire Primary, as Harkin won the 1992 Iowa Caucus, he was also supposed to win because it is his home state. If he loses the New Hampshire Primary, his campaign is practically over. I still doubt he actually runs; anybody can think about running, but pulling the trigger is a completely different animal.
#8. Sen. Tim Scott (SC) (Previous: 8)
No person helped himself more this spring than Sen. Tim Scott did with his rebuttal to President Joe Biden’s address to Congress. The speech didn’t even help his much as the wild Democratic overreaction to it did, particularly with all of the disgusting racist comments Democrats directed at Scott. Scott raised his profile, both within the GOP and nationally writ-large, with his speech. It is uncertain if he plans to run in 2024, particularly with Nikki Haley thinking about it, but it bears watching; especially true considering he is now raking in boatloads of fundraising dollars. The entire situation regarding what his book may or may not say about running in 2024 is beyond weird, even if the publisher admitted fault. But not as much as a top Senate aide moving over to his political operation.
#7: Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (KS) (Previous: 7)
Pompeo had a bit of a moment last year at CPAC and there’s a bit of a buzz around Pompeo at the moment. He won 3rd place at the CPAC straw poll (which only netted him 2% support). Pompeo’s problem, other than the obvious connection to Trump, is his general lack of a political base. Being elected as a member of Congress from Kansas is hardly a wide political base from which to launch a presidential bid. Pompeo, of course, is boosted by his service as Director of the CIA and as Secretary of State. Pompeo may run, and originally it was hard to imagine him becoming the nominee. But Pompeo is already in Iowa and making a compelling case regarding protecting the Republican win in the Iowa 2nd District. His work with Donald Trump and the surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban is going to do him no favors.
#6: Former Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) (Previous: 6)
There is no question now with Christie; he’s running for President and running hard. Christie recently said “I’m also not going to be one of these people who’s going to say, ‘Well, I’ll wait to see what President Trump’s going to do.’ You know, I’m not going to defer to anyone if I decide that it’s what I want to do, and that I think I’m the best option for the party and for the country.” He even says waiting for Trump is disqualifying. Christie missed his best shot to run in 2012, and the shine was gone by the time he actually ran in 2016. I struggle to see what constituency he appeals to if he runs in 2024, Trump or no Trump, no matter how much he tries to out-Trump Trump. However, he has a book now: Republican Rescue: Saving the Party from Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden. His recent appearance on the Ruthless podcast made a lot of waves. All this tells us that he’s certainly running but as an anti-Trump, not Trump-like, candidate.
#5: Governor Brian Kemp (GA): (Previous: 4)
Guess who launched a federal PAC? The one guy on this list who, in effect, took on Trump head-on and lived to tell the tale. Remember when Kemp skunked Trump-endorsed candidate David Perdue in the Republican primary by over 50 percent? Think Republican voters won’t be interested to learn about that? Kemp will not necessarily run for President in 2024; he could be angling to run for the U.S. Senate in 2026 instead. However, he is a conservative Governor from a swing state with a track record. He would be formidable.
#4: Former Governor Nikki Haley (SC): (Previous: 5)
Look, she’s running, announcing her campaign would launch on February 15th. Her service as Ambassador to the U.N. gave Haley the foreign policy chops that she lacked from her time as Governor of South Carolina. Haley is in a great spot; she remains popular with the Trump wing of the party while still retaining ties to the rest of the party, she lives in a key early primary state, and she’s the only woman seriously considering a run. And she finally FINALLY seems determined that she will not give Trump a free pass to run, which creates an awkwardly broken promise
#3: Gov. Glenn Youngkin (VA) (Previous: 3)
All of a sudden Glenn Youngkin is dropping hints that he may actually run. In the latest sign, Youngkin took a walk on committing to serve out his full term. He took office with guns blazing, and conservative voters are taking notice. And now he’s about to go campaign for candidates across the country. Youngkin seems to have somewhat cracked the code as to how to appeal to Trump voters without alienating non-Trump voters or bending the knee to Trump. It’s a helluva tightrope to walk, but it’s a model a lot of Republicans will be looking to emulate next year. His ability to do that, his already existing national profile, his personal wealth, and a lot of the national media living in his state is going to give him a chance to continue to raise his profile. If he wants to be President, this might be his best chance. And based on his 2022 campaign schedule, he knows it, which is why he kept expanding his schedule and profile the closer we got to the election. Now he has tax cuts on his agenda, and he better deliver for Virginia. Some think that his recent decision regarding a battery plant is fodder for 2024, but they forget local concerns about Chinese investment in Smithfield.
#2: Former Vice President Mike Pence (IN) (Previous: 2)
“Well, there might be somebody else I prefer more.”
Mike Pence’s answer as to whether he would vote for Trump in 2024 or not unequivocally answered the question of whether he was running in 2024 without answering. Not that his 2024 activities didn’t tell us already. Pence’s profile in this race is similar to that of Joe Biden when he ran in 2020. Arguably, Pence is the most qualified candidate in the field: he’s been a small business owner, a Congressman, a Governor, and of course Vice-President. That last part is what will trip him up. In a primary election, Pence will be hampered by the Trumpiest part of the Republican base that is mad because Pence didn’t violate the law, the Constitution, and common sense and unilaterally throw out the results of the 2020 Presidential Election. One thing, though, that does show the problems that Pence has with the pro-Trump elements of the party is his perceived “disloyalty” to Trump for not going allow with the attempted Trump coup of January 6th, for which he was booed at the Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference.
#1: Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL) (Previous: 1)
Ron DeSantis will remain the frontrunner until somebody shows they can compete with him. That Trump is already attacking DeSantis tells you everything you need to know about the pecking order at this stage of the race.
Dropped Out: Larry Hogan (#9)
February 2023 Republican Presidential Power Rankings
Drop out? HOGAN is in it to win it.