Goucher Poll Tells Us What We Already Knew

New Poll is just another data point telling us that Dan Cox is doomed at the ballot box.

Political analysts have been making assumptions for quite some time that Dan Cox has no chance tow in the November general election. Now, with fifty days to go prior to, there’s another piece of empirical data showing us what we already knew.

In the Goucher Poll released this morning, Dan Cox trails Wes Moore by 22 percent.

Moore leads with 53%, with Cox trailing with 31%. Duckpin-endorsed Libertarian David Lashar is third with 4%.

If Cox were to finish with 31% of the vote, it would be the lowest total for a Republican gubernatorial candidate since 1986.

Cox’s main problem at this point is that over a third of the electorate thinks that Cox is “far or extreme right” while only 13% of the electorate thinks that Moore is “far or extreme left.”

Cox’s big problem here, of course, is firepower. Wes Moore raised ten times as much money in the last reporting period than Cox did. On top of it, Wes Moore has many state and national unions, civic groups, and superPACS in his corner. Dan Cox has none of that support and none of that infrastructure. And while Cox may be trying to cover up what he has said in the past, he has no campaign infrastructure to broadcast a new narrative beyond the extreme narrative from the primary.

When you get into the weeds of the poll, you learn what the stupid part of all of this is.

Likely voters were asked to select three issues from a list of issues that could determine their choice for governor. “The economy and taxes,” “crime and public safety,” and “public schools and education” were among the most selected issues.

• The economy and taxes: 64 percent
• Crime and public safety: 62 percent
• Public schools and education: 60 percent
• Infrastructure like roads, bridges, and highways: 35 percent
• Environmental issues: 28 percent
• Affordable housing: 26 percent
• Public transportation: 8 percent

Two of those top three issues should favor the Republican candidate. These are issues that a generic Republican should be able to mop the floor with a generic Democrat on due to inflation, Maryland’s high taxes, Maryland’s high crime rate, and concerns with public safety, particularly in Baltimore. And yet Wes Moore is winning by 22 points because Dan Cox can’t focus on those issues and instead is still talking about “jabs for jobs.”

While talking about how people are concerned about the economy, taxes, and crime, this is probably something worth noting:

Sixty-two percent of Marylanders approve of the job Hogan is doing as governor, 28 percent disapprove, and 8 percent say they don’t know.

Former President Donald J. Trump is viewed favorably by 32 percent of Maryland residents. Sixty-one percent view him unfavorably.

So at least Dan Cox is outpolling Donald Trump’s favorability, I guess. But it goes to show the perils of a Republican candidate for Governor ignoring the Hogan model and instead genuflecting at the altar of Trump.

One final point to note: Cox’s 22-point deficit comes at roughly the same point in the election cycle as Larry Hogan’s 22-point lead did in 2018.

One of the more fascinating things in this poll is David Lashar polling at 4%. A Libertarian has *never* polled a 4% in a Governor’s race in Maryland. Libertarian results in Maryland gubernatorial elections look something like this:

• 2018: Shawn Quinn 0.57%

• 2014: Shawn Quinn 1.46%

• 2010: Susan Gaztanaga 0.76%

• 2006: No candidate

• 2002: Spear Lancaster 0.68%

The statewide high water mark for Maryland Libertarians is when Gary Johnson received 2.86% in the 2016 Presidential Election. While Lashar is limited in resources, he still has plenty of room to grow among the electorate and the roughly 30% or so of voters who are not locked in. All of which is yet another argument for including the other candidates in the debates.

The upshot of this poll is that it tells us what we already know: Republican voters knowingly gave up on this election in the primary.