Forest Gump’s momma once famously said “life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get.”
As we prepare for probably the fullest weekend of college football so far this year – PAC 12 play begins finally - I thought it would be good to look at some fan bases who have bitten into the “chocolate” of a new season and found caramel or macadamia nut…and some fan bases that found the orange mousse or – for me – coconut.
Fan bases of Ohio State, Alabama and other powers can’t understand the thrill of a team starting out 2-0 or 3-0 or with big, unexpected wins. Conversely, a team that is perpetually downtrodden isn’t that surprised with a bad start. Let’s take a look at programs who’s fans have to be thrilled…and ones who are likely horrified.
Caramel Bite:
Northwestern – Big Ten West (2-0): After an uncharacteristically dreadful 3-9 record last year that featured possibly the worst offense in the FBS, certainly in the Power 5, Northwestern changed coordinators, found a transfer starting QB and came out roaring in their opener against Maryland, winning by 30 points. Maryland’s subsequent win over Minnesota gave that more resonance, but then the ‘Cats followed that up with a 17 point come-from-behind win over rival Iowa, winning the kind of game that they could not have in prior years. Pat Fitzgerald deserves a lot of credit here – we’ll see how the rest of the season goes but Northwestern’s fan base – which has an under-appreciated national reach – has to be thrilled.
Auburn – SEC West (4-2): Auburn has not played particularly well this year until this past weekend’s game when they destroyed LSU. They are on here because they should be at least just 3-3 and probably 2-4. An incredible run of...luck…to put it very charitably…helped them avoid a certain loss against Arkansas in their third game and falling behind by 8 points late in fourth quarter in their fifth game against Ole Miss. That doesn’t even count these referee shenanigans in their opening game with Kentucky. Perpetually aggrieved with Gus Malzahn, except when he gets bizarre breaks against team like Alabama to come up with victory, Auburn fans have to be feeling good that the soft landing the SEC referee corps has given them early in the season has allowed them to get their feet under them in time for the stretch run.
Indiana – Big Ten East (2-0): I touched on Indiana’s win over Penn State a couple of weeks ago, they followed that up with a solid two touchdown victory over suddenly-game (we think…maybe) Rutgers and heads into a Saturday tilt with Michigan trying to get their second win over the reeling Wolverines (who lost to in-state rival Michigan State last week) in 41 tries…yes that’s right…Indiana has lost 39 of the last 40 games against Michigan. If they win Saturday, Hoosier fans will have to feel like they have stumbled into a Godiva store offering unlimited, free samples.
Coastal Carolina – C-USA (5-0): For the Chanticleers and their turquoise turf field, the novelty of being a full FBS program is wearing off – and this has become a really fun program. Really fun! With a unique offense and a great recruiting location in South Carolina, Coastal’s coach Jamey Chadwell has this team ranked 20th in the country and rocking and rolling. The fans – who have been regularly flocking to the stadium and supporting the ‘Cleers, have to be having fun.
Honorable mention (truffle filling maybe?) – Arkansas – SEC West (2-3 but should be 3-2). & Miami – ACC (5-1).
Orange Mousse Bite:
Penn State – Big Ten East (0-2): Starting the season as the team considered most likely to challenge Ohio State for the Big Ten title and get a spot in the College Football Playoff, Penn State had a brutal offensive and clock management performance in the season-opening loss to Indiana referenced above and then basically could not stop Ohio State on defense last week at home in Happy Valley. They face Maryland at home this week so you’d think their first win is pretty likely but this is definitely not what Nittany Lion fans had in mind for 2020.
LSU – SEC West (2-3): After fielding perhaps the best team in the history of college football last year and concluding a 15-0 national championship run, the Bayou Bengals lost both coordinators, their Heisman Trophy winning QB Joe Burrow and a number of other players. A step back was expected…but not this. LSU has looked lost on defense for most of the year – a disorienting feeling for anyone who’s watched LSU regularly over the years – and have been inconsistent on offense and dealt with a number of injuries. Put it this way…Mississippi State threw for 623 yards on the Tigers in SEC Week 1 and scored 44 points. MSU has not scored a combined 44 points in the five games since. It doesn’t get any easier. After a bye week this week, the Tigers get to take on…Alabama. Orgeron may be on a warm-to-hot seat going into next year.
Kentucy – SEC East (2-4): The Wildcats were a trendy pick by some to exceed expectations and win 6-7 games in 10 game schedule. Mark Stoops by all accounts has done a very good job in Lexington and they’ve had a couple of good games but it’s been really up and down. For fans who wanted to see Kentucky return to the form they had two years ago when they won 10 games, the season has not played out the way that people were expecting.
Texas/Oklahoma – Big 12 (3-2/4-2): These two teams have winning records and, for Oklahoma who beat Texas in their rivalry game, the season has gotten back on more of an even keel. However, both of these teams were expecting to be top 10 teams. Let’s put it this way…Texas fans in particular are very weary of the inconsistency they see in their program. Without a miracle comeback against Texas Tech, the ‘Horns would be 2-3. If Oklahoma could hold big second half leads they might be undefeated and in mix for college football playoff. Neither team is close to where their fan bases expected them to be. After several College Football playoff appearances and six straight Big 12 titles, Oklahoma fans probably aren’t quite as miserable as Texas fans…but it’s close.
Pittsburgh – ACC (2-4): Pitt started out 3-0 and looked like they might be set up for a solid, and perhaps great season…and now they’ve lost four straight and the wheels seem to be coming off of the Narduzzi regime. Perpetually underachieving, Pitt seemed to hit rock bottom against Notre Dame, losing 45-3…a team that had struggled in recent games. Fans have been pretty patient there as Narduzzi ended streak of coaches coming to Pitt and staying a short time before bolting, but eventually it’s reasonable to expect a breakthrough season and better recruiting. Neither seem to be happening for Pitt in the seventh year of the Narduzzi “experience”.
Minnesota – Big 10 West (0-2): After a breakthrough 11-win season that concluded with a bowl win and a wide-open Big 10 West, the Golden Gophers were a trendy choice to open their season with a win over Michigan (even got the ESPN Game Day treatment) and contend for the Big 10 title. They lost a lot on defense but those losses have not been close to being filled and they’ve had injury issues with their punter and kicker, among other key positions. Losing to Michigan isn’t necessarily shameful but they were blown out by a team that turned around and lost to a mediocre Michgian State team. Then, they went on the road and blew multiple big leads to Maryland, losing in overtime. There’s time to turn around and finish strong – but this was not the start I expected from P.J. Fleck’s squad and the raised hopes of Gopher fans have certainly been dashed by an 0-2 start.
Dishonorable Mention (the coconut bite): Louisville – ACC (1-5), Iowa – Big 10 West (0-2), Tennessee – SEC East (2-3)
In closing, it will be fascinating to see if any of these positive stories become huge in the second half of the season (for example we’ll know a lot more about Indiana after this week) and likewise if there are any turnarounds on the horizon for the disappointments. Feel free to share your thoughts with me on Twitter @justinready.