Discover more from The Duckpin
May 2023 Maryland U.S. Senate Power Rankings
For the first time in eight years, Maryland has an open U.S. Senate seat.
Well, it’s time for a new Power Rankings. Between now and the Maryland Primary next April, we will be ranking the announced and potential candidates for U.S. Senate in order of the likelihood of their election next November.
The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the winner, but who is best positioned to win the election at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time.
#10: Token Republican Nominee (R)
The best outcome for Republicans, frankly, is to nominate this candidate. After Dan Cox was nominated statewide, it’s the only way to avoid whatever embarrassment the likely choice of Republican voters is.
#9: Steven Seuferer (D)
#8: Moshe Landman (G)
The only bright side for Mr. Landman is that he’ll make it to the general election ballot, which is more than I can say for most people on this list.
#7: Jerome Seagal (D)
This is now Segal’s sixth run for political office if you count his abandoned plan to run for the Democratic Party Presidential nomination against Joe Biden for 2024. Segal’s run for U.S. Senate will ultimately end up just as pointless as all his other runs for office
#6: Former Congressman John Delaney (D)
John Delaney was last seen making a quixotic run for President in 2020 that didn’t get very far. Delaney has, mostly, been out of the game since he dropped out of that race. With his wife considering a run for his old House seat, I can’t imagine both Delaneys would seek to run this year.
#5: Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawondo (D)
The likelihood that a County Councilman is going to make the jump to U.S. Senate is slim and none. Jawondo first ran for Congress in 2016 before getting elected to the County Council the following cycle. My guess is that Jawondo is waiting to see what Jamie Raskin does and if Raskin runs for the Senate, Jawondo will switch back to run for Raskin’s seat.
#4. Congressman Jamie Raskin (D)
Jamie Raskin has had an eventful and traumatic two years. From the loss of his son to his defeating cancer, Raskin has had a lot of personal challenges on his plate. I doubt those will enter too much into his thinking, but I’m not sure that another D.C. area candidate is going to get very far.
#3: Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski Jr. (D)
Olszewski has an opportunity if he wants to take advantage of it. With no announced Baltimore-area candidates at present, Olszewski could fill that lane and build up additional statewide name ID even if he loses. Does he want to take on the Democratic establishment to do that? That remains to be seen.
#2: Congressman David Trone (D)
Troune announced his candidacy the day after Ben Cardin announced his retirement, and the crowd went mild. There is no doubt that Trone will spend millions in order to
buy the seat win the campaign, telling some associates he is prepared to spend up to $50 million. While that is all well and good, can Trone create enough enthusiasm among the Democratic base to win the nomination? It’s not likely.
#1: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D)
The second Alsobrooks announced her candidacy, she became the nominee. She would have been the likely frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Governor. Instead, Alsobrooks passed on the race and endorsed Wes Moore. For that, Moore and his political apparatus really owe Alsobrooks a lot. With the Washington area suburbs playing an ever-growing role in Democratic primary politics and with the election occurring during a Presidential election year, Alsobrooks will likely remain the overwhelming favorite unless her campaign really, really drops the ball.