May 2023 Republican Presidential Power Rankings
“We’re just going to have to go into the basement, ride out the tornado and come back up when it’s over to rebuild the neighborhood.”
Welcome to the latest installment of The Duckpin Republican Presidential Power Rankings. These rankings will list, in my estimation, the contenders for the Republican nomination for President on a 1……13(!) scale. This list will be updated every month; maybe more once we get to later in the year.
The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the Republican nominee, but who is best positioned to win the nomination at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time.
#13: Ex-Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (MT): (Previous: NR)
Fun fact: Corey Stapleton has lost four out of five statewide elections he has run in Montana. But decided in November to run for President anyway. He also has been releasing country music, too. Live your best life, man.
#12: Ex-Mayor Steve Laffey (CO): (Previous: NR)
Steve Laffey was Mayor of Cranson, Rhode Island from 2003-2007 before losing the U.S. Senate Primary to Lincoln Chaffee in 2006. He has run for office a few times in Colorado since moving there a while ago. But he too threw his hat in to run for President.
#11: Larry Elder (CA): (Previous: NR)
Elder for America was a sponsor at CPAC Texas, so the announcement that Elder was running for President surprised nobody. Why else would a talk show host and failed gubernatorial candidate be spending that kind of scratch? Is this going to be a Dale Peterson-type campaign? Or something legitimate?
#10: Former National Security Adviser John Bolton (MD) (Previous: 10)
John Bolton would possibly be one of the worst on-the-stump candidates for President in a long time. I am also reasonably convinced that he would be better at addressing our national security interests than
#9: Tucker Carlson (FL) (Previous: NR)
Don’t tell me that he isn’t thinking about it.
#8: Vivek Ramaswamy (OH): (Previous: 7)
I’ll be honest, I had absolutely no idea who the hell this guy was until he started talking about a run and ultimately announced. I still don’t know very much except he is a billionaire, is against “wokeism” and the ESG framework. It’s the part where he is a billionaire where, in the modern social media driven political market, can take him from being a nobody into being a contender. Though billionaires from Morry Taylor to Michael Bloomberg have run for President with no success. Ramaswamy seems like a guy who wants to drive the conversation more so than somebody with delusions of actually winning. But I’m not sure “I am in this race to take the America First agenda further than Donald Trump ever did” as a message is going to go very far.
#7: Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (AK) (Previous: 9)
He’s running for President, which is still a bit of a surprise to me. Some think Hutchinson is the ideal Republican candidate. I question that after seeing what the modern Republican Party has become. But Republicans have done worse, and almost certainly will in 2024.
#6: Former Governor Nikki Haley (SC): (Previous: 4)
Inflating your campaign finance number is not something anything resembling a strong campaign does. Haley does not seem like she’s going to make it terribly far.
#5: Former Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) (Previous: 6)
He’s attacking Ron DeSantis. He’s attacking Donald Trump. He went to Texas to meet with donors. He’s running. But considering that Christie 1. Missed his chance in 2012 and 2. got shellacked in his 2016 campaign, will anybody care? He’s was recently in New Hampshire starting to rehab his name. He’s attacking Trump, at least. He can govern. But can he win? Unlikely.
#4. Sen. Tim Scott (SC) (Previous: 5)
Launching an exploratory committee in the way that Tim Scott did was honestly kinda weird. He’s not facing a “resign-to-run” law like Ron DeSantis has been. He’s not facing re-election to the Senate. It’s obvious that Scott is running for President. Why else does he put out this ad? But when will he officially run? Who knows.
#3: Former Vice President Mike Pence (IN) (Previous: 2)
It’s not if Pence runs. But when.
#2: Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL) (Previous: 1)
Ron DeSantis’s campaign began to implode the second that this Beta Male move happened.
The continued obsession with Disney is not helping him, either with voters, elected officials, or with donors.
“What the fuck is wrong with RD?” one participant wrote after DeSantis did not curtail his out-of-state publicity tour to return home amid massive flooding in the Fort Lauderdale area…..
….Over the past few years, the Florida governor has risen to Trump’s top internal rival without even declaring his candidacy. And part of that rise has been fueled by his pull with the GOP’s megadonor class, who prefer him to Trump because, while he brings a similar set of MAGAfied policies, he has not, to date, attempted a coup. That wellspring of financial support has been instrumental in fueling his rise, but the investments are predicated in large part on a belief that he can take down Donald.
That belief seems to be wavering, as the donor revolt has been brewing since at least last month. And it’s not just skittish donors like Richard Uihlein or Thomas Peterffy, who went public with his complaints last week. Several other top donors to DeSantis were livid about the governor referring to the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine as a “territorial dispute,” with at least one major donor calling DeSantis to urge a walk-back, a source with knowledge of the outreach and another person briefed on it say. “My understanding is that the message was: ‘If we wanted a fucking MAGA candidate, we would donate to Donald Trump,’” the second source says.
All while the media is questioning if DeSantis has what it takes to take on Trump. All is not well in DeSantis land.
#1: Ex-President Donald Trump (FL) (Previous: 1)
He’s running. GOP voters want to commit political suicide and hand the election back to Biden. And now, I’m not sure there is anything that can stop them. Some people think his nomination is inevitable and some people think he can be stopped. But one Republican quoted in Politico said it all:
As a shrewd Republican strategist, and no NeverTrumper, put it to me recently: “We’re just going to have to go into the basement, ride out the tornado and come back up when it’s over to rebuild the neighborhood.”
Dropped Out: Mike Pompeo (#8; not running for President); Doug Burgum (#10); Glenn Youngkin (#11)