Most Meaningful Matchups - Championship Week Edition!
Plus the Path to the Playoff for the 8 (!) Teams left
We’ve come to the final weekend of the college football season – Championship Weekend. There are 10 games – all of them good in my opinion. I’m going to rank them below in order of what I think will be a combination of the best and most important (yes, meaningful) games in relation to the playoff. BUT – make no mistake – these are ALL meaningful. These are teams playing for their conference championship and in many cases, it’s teams that never or rarely have had this kind of opportunity.
We’re also going to break down the Path to the Playoff for the 8 teams who still have any hope below the game list. So enjoy…here we go>>>>>>
10. Kent State vs. N. Illinois (MAC Championship) – Noon on ESPN – Detroit, MI: The MAC has been very parity-driven this year but these are the two teams that survived and made it. Northern Illinois in particular has had a dream season and Sean Lewis, head coach at Kent State, is going to be in a bigger job in the next couple of years.
9. W. Kentucky at UTSA (C-USA Championship) – 7:00 PM (Fri) on CBS Sports Network: Despite a disappointing loss last week, it’s been a dream season for the UTSA Roadrunners. They are now on the map in Texas and throughout college football and seem likely to keep their head coach for another year. Western, meanwhile, imported an entirely new offense and a bunch of transfers and jumpstarted their way into the CUSA Championship Game. Impressive all the way around and this is a rematch of a classic game these two played back in October.
8. Utah State at #19 San Diego State (Mountain West Championship)– 3:00 PM on FOX: San Diego State, if they win, has a great shot at a NY6 Bowl. Meanwhile Utah State has had an amazing turnaround in just one year under Blake Anderson. The Aggies and the Aztecs both have to feel good about their seasons, there’s most on the line for Aztecs. Watch out for their outstanding punter!
7. Appalachian State at Louisiana (Sun Belt Championship) – 3:30 PM on ESPN: This is probably the best game that not many people will watch this weekend. The Sun Belt Conference has become as good as any in the G5 and these two teams, along with Coastal Carolina, are the reason why. It’s UL Head Coach Billy Napier’s swan song before he heads to Florida. Should be a very well-played game.
6. #10 Oregon vs. #17 Utah (PAC 12 Championship) – 8:00 PM (Fri) on ABC – Las Vegas: Oregon tries to get revenge for the pounding they got a couple weeks ago at Utah while the Utes want to go to their first Rose Bowl ever. Oregon is on the final outskirts of the playoff race (see below) but the PAC 12 Championship matters anyway. I wouldn’t expect a blowout in this game.
5. #15 Pittsburgh vs. #16 Wake Forest (ACC Championship) – 8:00 PM on ABC– Charlotte, NC: Two teams that were not expected to be in this position but have had wonderful seasons. The winner goes to a NY6 bowl, the loser may fall out and this may be a one-time chance to win a championship – especially for Wake Forest. Should be a high scoring affair.
4. #24 Houston at #4 Cincinnati (AAC Championship) – 4:00 PM on ABC: This game is a big one for Cincinnati to solidify its place in the playoff. However, it would be a mistake to overlook one loss Houston (who in my view should be ranked higher than 24th). The Bearcats could use a big win over the Cougars to ensure they stay at #4 or move up – but the AAC has a history of close championship games and I think this is no exception.
3. #9 Baylor vs. #5 Oklahoma State (Big 12 Championship) – Noon on ABC – Dallas, TX: For Oklahoma State it’s likely win and they are in, unless Alabama beats Georgia. But Baylor is evenly matched with them. Despite this being the Big 12, I expect a defensive slugfest to get a fabulous Saturday started. Several teams will likely be rooting for Baylor to knock Oklahoma State out of contention. Should be fun!
2. #2 Michigan vs. #13 Iowa (Big 10 Championship) – 8:00 on FOX – Indianapolis, IN: This game is a real linchpin for the entire playoff structure to wrap up Saturday night. Michigan looked very impressive against Ohio State but Iowa is a great defensive team that thrives off of turnovers and field position and should hold up better against the run than the Buckeyes. I’d expect a close game here but if Michigan doesn’t turn the ball over, they should win.
1. #1 Georgia vs. #3 Alabama (SEC Championship) – 4:00 on CBS – Atlanta, GA: The game of the weekend, and likely the game of the season, the Georgia-Alabama game has defined the SEC for a half decade and doesn’t look likely to change anytime soon. Georgia seems to have a clear advantage on the lines and, while Alabama has the more explosive offense by the numbers, Georgia has been more consistent. The Tide couldn’t block Auburn for most of the game last week – hard to see how they do better against the Dawgs. However, stranger things have happened. Watch to see if early scoring lets one team get the other out of sorts early – if Georgia, in particular, can get up a couple scores, it could spell real trouble for Alabama’s offensive line. On the other hand, Georgia hasn’t had any moments this year where they had to come from behind past the first quarter…if the Tide can take a second half lead, we’ll see what the Dawgs are made of. I’m thinking Georgia wins this – as I predicted to start the season but we’ll see. The other drama could be if it’s close and one or two other top 5 teams lose – could the Tide get in with two losses? Probably not but we’ll see!
Paths to the Playoff:
There are 6 teams with a real, legitimate shot at the playoff and 2 with an extreme outside shot. Here’s the realistic path(s) for how they make it:
1. Georgia – in no matter what, win and they are #1, lost and they probably only drop to #3. Even a blowout loss to Alabama – highly unlikely – probably doesn’t drop them out.
2. Michigan – win the Big 10 Title Game and they are in. Lose to #13 Iowa and they are probably out, although a close loss and a bunch of other people losing, including Alabama, Oregon and others.
3. Alabama – probably has to beat Georgia in SEC Title game. Win and they are in, and probably #1. If they lose – and it would have to be close - their path would be at least two of these three losing their title games – Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, and/or Michigan.
4. Cincinnati – must win and could really use Georgia beating Alabama. A loss by either Michigan or Oklahoma State wouldn’t hurt either. A loss and they are out.
5. Oklahoma State – win the Big 12 Title game and have Georgia win the SEC Championship Game over #9 Baylor and they are *probably* in. If Alabama beats Georgia, then Ok State needs to win and be hoping for a loss by either Cincy or Michigan.
6. Notre Dame – sitting pretty (although now coach-less shockingly) at 11-1. They need Georgia to win in all likelihood and probably need at least 2 of 3 of these teams to lose, Michigan, Cincinnati and/or Oklahoma State.
-BIG GAP HERE-
7. Oregon – The Ducks only chance is a convincing win in the PAC12 Championship, a Georgia blowout win over Alabama and for Cincinnati, Michigan AND Oklahoma State to all lose. Plus, it wouldn’t hurt for Baylor to just barely beat Oklahoma State in a sloppy game since they are also a two loss top 10 team. It’s not likely – but never say never.
8. Baylor – See Oregon above except it would also help the Bears for Oregon to lose or win sloppy.