Year: 67-63-2
Last Week: 5-9
Woof! Well that was awful. After starting the week a pleasant 5-4, I lost all the Sunday afternoon, evening and Monday games to blow the week. Obviously, after having several good weeks in a row I was due, and definitely I was due after getting all confident last week. Do I regret it? Not a chance. Celebrate the good things in life, because the bad things will come around sooner than later. We will take a closer look at the errors in a bit, but first the weekend wrap up.
Best Call: My predication about Panthers-Chiefs was perfect, as it was indeed a close game that the Chiefs nearly lost. Patrick Mahomes saved the day like usual, so there is no need for alarm. I expect them to be more focused this week. Honorable mention to the Bucs. Yes, I got the game wrong, but I warned you about the karmic load again. This is really gaining the whatever the opposite of momentum is.
Worst call: The Cowboys nearly beat the Steelers and easily covered the spread in what I would describe as a turd-burger laid by the entire Steelers squad. Mike Tomlin probably had an aneurysm screaming at them at halftime. This was an obvious look ahead game and I missed it. My anger at the Steelers turd-burger reminds me of one of my favorite sports media tropes. Next time a sports media figure lashes out at an athlete or team, scroll back a few weeks and look at them boldly declaring how great that team or player is, then scroll forward through the player or team losing something. Nothing makes sports media figures angrier than being wrong. And SOMEBODY has to be blamed. It sure wasn’t their fault for picking the wrong team or player. THEY were right, the player or team just choked. They are chokers now.
Bad Beat: This week, reigning Chokemaster Flex, the San Diego (not LA) Chargers, managed to avoid choking away a lead. They did not, however, manage to avoid disaster as two straight tries at the worst play in football (the end zone fade) lead to two catches, bobbles, and lost victories as time expired. Also, two lost covers.
After last week when I choked big time in an obvious look ahead week, I am hoping to rebound this week with a renewed focus on the basics. I will take a break from practicing my end zone celebrations and get back to looking at each team. Let’s do what everyone does when the have to make a decision, make a pros and cons list. And, just like everyone who does that, let’s realize that this offers no real help as there is no way to identify which pros and cons are most important or figure out how to weigh them. Then just pick one because we have to.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans -1
Indianapolis Colts Pros:
Defense is VERY good. Stops the run very effectively and the pass pretty well too.
Running game can be effective in the right situation.
Offensive line can keep Philip Rivers upright.
Cons:
Philip Rivers tackling
Philip Rivers throwing
One of these players is not a currently active skill position player for the colts. Which one is it?
Michael Pittman Jr., Nyheim Hynes, Jonathan Taylor Thomas, Mo Cox, Trey Burton, Jack Doyle, Zach Pascal, Jordan Wilkins, and Marcus Johnson. If you said Jonathan Taylor Thomas because you know what Home Improvement is, then you are right. But only because I added Thomas to Jonathan Taylor’s name. This is a who’s who of who dat.
Tennessee Titans Pros:
Derrick Henry
Ryan Tannehill (as a Dolphins fan, this is really befuddling).
AJ Brown.
Cons:
Their pass defense is one of the 5 worst in football.
Their coach said he would cut off his penis to win a Super Bowl.
They lost to the Bengals.
Colts win 34-17.
Washington Football Team vs. Detroit Lions -4.5
WFT Pros:
Alex Smith should be comeback player of the year… and probably decade.
Chase Young will probably be defensive player of the year by default as there have been almost zero productive defensive rookies so far.
Terry McLaurin is a Pro Bowler
Cons:
They are an NFC East Football team.
Detroit Lions Pros:
They have won more games than some other teams.
Matt Stafford has been a really good quarterback his entire career.
Adrian Peterson is a Highlander.
They once had Barry Sanders.
Cons:
Matt Patricia
The Lions defense might have said they let Todd Gurley score on purpose, but it is looking increasingly like that is just their base defense.
This is just a reminder that they took a cornerback that can’t get on the field over Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa. I don’t care if you have Matt Stafford. He’s not immortal.
Lucky for the Lions, only the WFT plays in the NFC East. Lions -4.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Green Bay Packers -13.5
Jacksonville Jaguars newbie Jake Luton can scoot.
James Robinson is doing an awful lot for a team with no real threats elsewhere.
Cons:
They can’t play the Texans and their 30th ranked defense every game.
Jake Luton is still Jake Luton
The Jaguars efence
Green Bay Packers Pros:
Aaron Rodgers many looks
Aaron Rodgers throwing to Devante Adams
Jaire Alexander as a No. 1 cornerback
Cons:
I have a better change of stopping the runs after a trip to Taco Bell than the Packers do on Sunday.
The Packers continue to insist on investing in the future of the team (drafting Love, refusing to trade draft picks, refusing to sign good players) rather than getting the most out of Rodgers. The Packers transition from Farve to Rodgers has caused them to think franchise QBs grow on route trees. They don’t. This is a huge mistake. Just ask the Browns.
I think Luton got lucky against one of the worst defenses in football last week. The Packers aren’t great, but they aren’t Houston either. If you think Aaron Rodgers plans on taking a week off this season, you are mistaken. Packers -13.5.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. NY Giants +3
Philadelphia Eagles Pros:
They almost can’t help but to start having fewer injuries.
Carson Wentz is sometimes not bad.
They are going to win their division.
Cons:
They are an NFC East football team.
NY Giants Pros:
They are unquestionably the second best team in the division with 2 wins.
They have a good cornerback in James Bradberry.
Cons:
Their highly drafted quarterback is the fourth best in the division. Behind two Eagles, Alex Smith on one leg, and a guy who dominated the AAF.
They are an NFC east team
Even if their lawyers can successfully sue the Cowboys, WFT and Eagles to get back the wins that were wrongfully and illegally given to those teams instead of the Giants, they will still have fewer wins than the Steelers.
NFC East game. TAKE. THE. POINTS. Giants +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers +6
Tampa Bay Pros:
Tom Brady is clearly the reason for any recent winning for the Patriots. He has played well for the most part this year, but is clearly starting to struggle with Philip Rivers syndrome.
Any team could go to the NFC Playoffs this year. The Saints are 1 game ahead of the 7th playoff spot. They are in the 1st playoff spot.
Their run defense has been really great.
Cons:
Antonio Brown
Carolina Panthers Pros:
Christian McCaffrey was back this week and took apart the Chiefs defense. He is really, really good.
Teddy Bridgewater did not miss time with his concussion.
Their pass defense remains ok. The Chiefs are just better.
Cons:
Christian McCaffrey got hurt again.
Their run defense is weak.
Very rarely will the cons section include an actual con, but here we are. Look. I think the Bucs are really talented, and should be able to get to the Super Bowl. I can’t overemphasize enough though, the kind of negative energy something like the Antonio Brown signing brings. Lucky for them… McCaffrey is out this week. Bucs -6
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns -3.5
Houston Texans Pros:
Deshaun Watson. Man is he great. Without him, this team is literally the Jaguars.
They fired the worst GM in football.
They are going to get a good draft pick… oh wait, no. The Dolphins are going to get a good draft pick.
Cons:
The defense
They almost lost to someone named Jake Luton.
The fan experience.
Cleveland Browns Pros:
5-3!
Baker Mayfield is definitely better this year.
Their coach is familiar with the basics of coaching.
Cons:
Team still isn’t really going anywhere.
OBJ injury puts the brakes on any offensive gains they were having.
Baker Mayfield being better seems to mean league average.
I would rather have the points here. I think the Browns are better, but look out for the Watson back door cover. Texans +3.5
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders -4
Denver Broncos pros:
Their offensive players have returned for the most part.
Jerry Jeudy is starting to catch on in his rookie year after a quiet first half. He’s a brilliant route runner, who will only get better.
Cons:
Their defense is definitely not back. I’m not the only one who thinks so… Derek Carr is pleased with some of the absences. Listen to him describe playing against the injured Von Miller.
Remember Drew Lock’s dancing from last week? I do and wish I don’t. It’s not his first time either. My biggest take away from these is that he is always by himself while doing them…
Las Vegas Raiders Pros:
They have clearly improved as the season has wore on. Their defense is better and Derek Carr has been playing well consistently.
The Raiders once had athletic marvel Bo Jackson on their squad. Bo Jackson is one of the greatest multi-sport athletes of all time, on a list with guys like Deion Sanders, Jim Thorpe and Jim Brown. I really miss when guys would do that.
Cons:
They should have lost last week as I predicted. Only the smallest bobble kept them from being right back on track for 8-8. The running game has been flat (not Jacob’s fault, he has been good, line isn’t opening any holes) and they still struggle to pressure the quarterback.
They don’t seem to be able to follow coronavirus guidelines, and were severely fined and lost a draft pick last week. This may seem irrelevant, but with cases surging, not staying clean will cost them.
Worst of all… Stephen A Smith likes them. I don’t mind Stephen A as much as some do. I see him for what he is, a talking head. I find him entertaining in a silly way at times. He knows next to nothing about football though (he knows quite a bit about basketball) and he seems to be forgetting that they were a bobble away from 4-4.
Look. These teams are relatively even when healthy. At this point, the Broncos are close to the point where they have even health. The Raiders got lucky last week. I bet they don’t this week. Broncos +4
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins -1.5
Los Angeles Chargers Pros:
Justin Herbert’s deep ball is as good as it gets. It’s not just the big plays, it’s how he always seems to get his receiver in stride.
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are thriving with a QB who can get the ball downfield accurately.
Sadly for the Chargers, this particular approach to winning things is ineffective.
Cons:
While Herbert has been incredible on the deep ball, he is middle of the pack in completions less than 20 yards. His receivers have created 5 yards of separation on a large amounts of his throws. This has contributed to all the big plays. Why does this matter? The Dolphin cornerbacks will not be granting 5 yards of separation at all. Can he work the short stuff to backs, tight ends and the slot?
The Chargers have the worst special teams in the NFL (they did last year too, it’s not a fluke). The Dolphins have the best. Only a couple games each year are won and lost here. This game is the biggest unit mismatch in the league this year. It’s the equivalent of this year’s Jets vs. the 2007 Patriots.
The Chargers are down to using Kalen Ballage at running back. Why does that matter? He was cut from the awful group the Dolphins are using.
The biggest threat to the Dolphins this week isn’t the Chargers. It’s Covid. They just had 4 players go on the Covid list including two critical starters (Van Noy and Wilkins). I’m still taking the Dolphins though. The special teams gap is rarely considered in these picks, but with a team that always finds a way to lose like the Chargers, this is when it will rear it’s ugly head. Dolphins -1.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals -2.5
Arizona Cardinals Pros:
Kyler Murray’s stats this season are better than Lamar Jackson last year when he was a unanimous MVP. Stopping him on the ground is very hard. Just like Lamar Jackson though, he has some holes in his air game.
Patrick Peterson is quietly back. The last several games, he has shadowed and limited some of the best receivers in football. This week he takes on the very talented Stephon Diggs, who is a critical cog in the Bills air attack.
How about this brother? The one bar helmet is the equivalent of the guy wearing the coronavirus mask on his mouth while his nose is uncovered.
Cons:
The rest of their defense is… not good. They just let a guy who threw for 98 yards the week before toss up 250.
Their running game has been a dud. After setting fire to the fantasy football universe last year. Kenyan Drake has been pedestrian and Chase Edmonds can’t handle the full load.
For an MVP, Kyler’s Madden Rating sucks.
Buffalo Bills Pros:
Good Josh Allen has reappeared the last two weeks, and hope has returned to Western NY. From SI:
Since Tre’Davious White has gotten back to full strength, the Bills defense has gotten a whole lot better too. This week he will have his hands full against DeAndre Hopkins. While he had a quiet week on the stat sheet last week, he drew 4! DPI flags.
With the return to health of some of their defensive players, a quiet storyline is that they have the least salary on IR of any team. Being healthy at this time of the year is better than being good.
Cons:
I have a new theory about Josh Allen. It’s not random universes. It’s twins alternating lives. One of the twins took chemistry in college while the other played football.
The Bills simply cannot run the ball. Outside of Josh Allen runs, they can barely get off the line of scrimmage. Their one hope is the recently promoted Zach Moss.
Outside of Stephon Diggs, the remaining skill position players are limited. After a good year last year, John Brown has disappeared. Neither of their backs is great at catching and their tight ends are not a serious threat.
The Bills defensive resurgence gives me the confidence I need to take them here. If they can hold down Russ, they can hold down Kyler. Bills +2.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Cincinnati Bengals pros:
They are quietly building a better team. Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and the increasingly good Bengals secondary are good building blocks for the future.
There have been almost no Bengally things to post this year. There haven’t been many disaster plays. They have surprised with a few wins. They keep games close.
Cons:
Exchanging one headache for another…
If you thought Stephen A’s support was troubling… Skip Bayless is the evil version of Stephen A. He also manages to know less about all sports and real life. Sorry Joe. I look forward to Skip trashing him when he doesn’t turn into Joe Montana because he’s an asshole.
Pittsburgh Steelers Pros:
Their defense is still a hellscape, it’s just that they forgot to leave Hell for last weeks game until the 4th quarter. Watch out, this team has been getting ripped all week by Mike Tomlin in the film room. Joe Burrow is a bottom 10 QB against the blitz. The Steelers blitz. A lot. Look at this rare defensive tackle stiff arm.
Their wide receiver depth is incredible. They transition seamlessly from one star to another like they grow on trees. Goodbye Antonio Brown. Hello, Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson.
Ben Roethlisberger might not be able to throw the deep ball accurately anymore, but he is still great in the mid-range and he doesn’t make many mistakes.
Cons:
Ben Roethlisberger has two injured knees and is out on Covid protocol. At last check, he is out of healthy knees. You need legs to throw.
I don’t think they need Ben for this one. Rookie QBs are 4-24 vs. the Steelers since 2004. Yikes. I think they come out hungry after last week. Steelers -7
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams -1.5
Seattle Seahawks Pros:
Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett
Cons:
Every last thing about their defense.
Los Angeles Rams
They have one of the few CBs capable of playing man on DK Metcalf in Jalen Ramsey. They do not, however, have anyone for Tyler Lockett.
The Rams defense has gotten much tougher as the year has gone on.
The Rams thrive on misdirection. On offense, play actions, sweeps, and crossing routes are the key to what they do. This seems like a bad thing for a team like the Seahawks who seem lost out there already. They have had 2 weeks to draw something up for this game.
Cons:
Jared Goff is a bad quarterback. All of the tricks, and bell, and whistles the offense uses are meant to disguise this fact. If you game plan to eliminate that stuff, he is just fancy Brian Hoyer.
I’m taking the Seahawks. Why? Because Russell Wilson. That’s why. Seahawks +1.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints -9.5
San Francisco 49ers Pros:
They have one of the best rosters in football. It is a shame we will never see it.
They have one of the best coaches in the NFL. He is coaching a BCS school level of talent.
They are sneaky. Just when you think things are hopeless, they sucker you with a good game.
Cons:
Everyone is hurt. That’s it. I showed the list last week. They are missing virtually every starter.
New Orleans Saints Pros:
Michael Thomas is back. He didn’t get a lot of run because of the score last week, but I expect him to thrive.
Alvin Kamara is a monster who shows no signs of slowing down.
Even their defense finally played well. I will note here, though, that the only two games that they performed well in were against the Bucs. That win was so easy a 30 lb lighter Jameis Winston got in the game and celebrated not throwing a pick 6 by eating a W. I assume this is the first carb he has had this year.
Cons:
This is a very dangerous look ahead game. On a short week, with the resurgent Falcons coming up, after a very easy win, they could easily overlook this one.
I like the 49ers to surprise coming off a long week. Look, if you made it this far down the article, good for you. I like the 49ers to spring a trap. 49ers +9.5
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots +7
Baltimore Ravens Pros:
Despite the absence of star CB Marlon Humphrey, the defense had no trouble slowing down the Colts. They remain a top unit, and this is going to be trouble for very weak Patriots group.
Lamar Jackson is still very talented and when he gets going, he remains one of the best in football.
Cons:
Lamar Jackson is looking more an more like Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick. He started off incredible, then sputtered as a limited grasp of the offense forced the team into simple plays and quick single reads.
What he doesn’t realize, while making this assertion, is that he is telling on himself. The only reason teams are able to do this is that the Ravens cannot have enough plays or options/audibles to fight this. They can’t because Lamar can only handle a rudimentary offense. He is still out here using a wrist list to call plays. His sideline moping from the first half last Sunday, instead of film review, is a sure sign that there were no plans to change the plays. In the second half, he turned things around by hitting quick throws, but they were still almost exclusively one read throws. Teams know that if that read isn’t there, he is going to run. Unless his knowledge of the offense grows to a place where he can make multiple reads and on the fly audibles, this team will stagnate.
New England Patriots Pros:
Cam Newton looked better last week during that intramural scrimmage with the Jets.
The defense still has elite players like Stephon Gilmore.
Bill Belichick is still the coach.
Cons:
The losses are too much to handle at this point. It is looking like the loss of Brian Flores was very significant, given how well he is coaching in Miami. The lack of quality draft for the last 5 years have lead to very little skill talent. The offensive and defensive lines are in shambles and key defensive players are sitting the year out. The loss of Tom Brady hurt, but he left for an obvious reason. The rest of the team is not good. They need a reset.
Despite my concerns with Lamar, I just don’t think this Pats group has enough left in the tank to take down a real playoff contender of any kind. Ravens -7
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears +3
Minnesota Vikings Pros:
Dalvin Cook has self-immolated and is now leading the NFL in all the rushing statistics.
Despite starting people they found on the street in the secondary (literally) the defense has been ok.
Justin Jefferson has been great so far. This rookie WR class will be remembered like we remember the QB class of Elway and Marino.
Cons:
I assume you read what I said about the cornerbacks being part-time ikea employees or something.
That Assasin’s Creed game looks great. I just needed to put that somewhere. Kirk Cousins is in the game as a colossal giant boss who you defeat by unleashing a team with a winning record.
They have a bad case of Falcitis where they love winning games that don’t matter against bad teams.
Chicago Bears Pros:
Their defense is top notch and has notoriously caused the Vikings problems.
Their offense has a good playermaker in Darnell Mooney. He has been turning up with huge plays the last few weeks. Allen Robinson is a star too, so the WR aren’t the problem…
Cons:
Matt Nagy, Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky is the kind of love triangle that could best be described as equilaterally terrible.
This team has stopped winning ugly, and started losing. There is very little difference between these two things.
Their offensive line is basically the equivalent of the Vikings secondary. They are starting people off the street.
I like the Bears to surprise everyone and win this. They are one of the few units capable of neutralizing Dalvin Cook. Without him, the Vikings are just the Bengals. Bears +3