Week 13 record: 10-5
Overall Record: 97-92-2
Wooo! I know I shouldn’t have gone that far to celebrate, but still! What a great week of pickin’ it. I even survived the most shocking thing of the NFL season, sudden, overwhelming competence from the NFC East. It was a crazy week, and we are going to take a closer look in just a second. First, let’s acknowledge something even more shocking. Adam Gase wasn’t even the worst coach on the Jets, let alone the league. Who knew that Gregg Williams was a sleeper agent planted by Jets brass to set off the nuclear bomb in the event that the Jets got too close to a victory. Welcome to NFL: Homeland Edition.
I simply find it to be impossible this was a play call by an NFL defensive coordinator. Even one as dumb as Gregg Williams. Gregg has a lot of experience perfecting the tank, having been the only coach in history to be on two winless teams (He was DC, then HC, of the 0-16 Browns). Apparently he was shocked and angry when fired, which makes sense given he was just following orders. Of course, if you don’t fire a coach from the worst defense in the NFL after that call, you might as well just put out a neon tank sign. In classic Gregg Williams style, he forgot to be subtle.
Best Call: So many good candidates here, but the best is probably the Pats. The Chargers set a new level of incompetence on special teams. They gave up 2(!) special teams touchdowns and, on five Pats punts, managed to have the wrong number of personnel on three. They lost very easily despite the Patriots only throwing for 67 yards. That should be impossible, but, again, the Chargers always lose in the margins.
Worst Call: The NFC East. The Giants and WFT both had stunning victories (not against the spread, just victories). They victimized flat Seahawks and Steelers teams who clearly were not ready to play. The Steelers have an excuse, having just come off a ridiculous situation last week where they were punished for the Ravens incompetence. The Seahawks just continue to disappoint after a strong start to the season. The Eagles still embarrassed themselves though, so that helped.
Miracle Cover: There were no bad beats this week (I got handily smoked in my 5 losses). Instead, let’s be thankful for win. The Texans had driven to the Colts 2 as time was winding down, down 6. Then the Texans Texaned:
Ouch. That’s a tough way for everyone to find out who the Texans’ center was. The Colts covered, and I went home double happy as I got the cover and the Dolphins draft pick got a little better.
Let’s look forward to week 14. It’s the fantasy football playoffs, so hopefully you are gearing up for a big run. If not, you suddenly have to watch football as a random observer instead of an enraged, biased team owner. The Sunday games are going to be pretty lame this week… until we get to Sunday night. The Steelers-Bills matchup will definitely be the game of the week, as the surging Bills meet the suddenly sputtering Steelers. This could be a playoff preview. On Monday we get the Art Modell Bowl (Ravens vs. Browns). Last week, I made it pretty clear your team wasn’t going to the Super Bowl. But I think there was some confusion. Your team is definitely going to the Super Bowl. Maybe not this year (some teams are already eliminated), but definitely next year. I’m sure this will cheer everyone up.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams -6
The Patriots: The Patriots are the zombie of your cousin Jenny who you just shot in the chest, but forgot to chop the head off of. You think they are gone, so you start talking to your other cousin Eric, and you guys come up with plan to head out to a local mall in Pittsburgh, when all of a sudden Jenny bites you in the neck. The Pats are 6-6. If they win this week, they get three straight games against the AFC East. They basically control their own destiny. If they make the playoffs, Bill Belichick has like a 50 percent chance of making the Super Bowl in his career.
The Rams: Their very good defense features two of the very best players in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald. While they definitely have some flaws on offense, all of the other NFC contenders have serious flaws too. When it comes down to it, in the winter, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, defense usually does win championships.
Well… the Rams kicked in the door and chopped Jenny's head off with a chainsaw. I wasnt really wrong though. The defense only gave up 17 points. The Pats offense is just too terrible. I wonder why…
Berrios is the Jets 4th receiver.
Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears +2
The Texans: They can’t get to the Super Bowl this year, but they will next year, because they just need to build some pieces around Deshaun Watson. They will have an easier schedule next year. If they trade some high priced veterans for some picks, they could quickly reload. With a new coach and GM, they can form a real plan. With Watson at QB, anything is possible.
The Bears: They have played themselves out of contention, but they have all the pieces here to be a strong team next year. They just need a QB. With the offseason coming up, they can dump Nagy, Foles, and Trubisky. They can pick up any number of solid QBs who will be available, and if the offense is competent, then the defense is good enough to make them an instant contender. Of course, this is banking on the Bears doing something they have never done. Pick a good QB.
I’ll take the Texans -2 here. They are the ones with the good QB. Yes, the rest isn’t great, but when push comes to shove, I want him leading the final drive. Not Folbisky. Since Nick Foles declared how fine it was to win ugly… the Bears are 0-5.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5
The Vikings: The Vikings are still in the playoff mix somehow, despite starting 1-5. They have gone 5-1 in their last six, and the master of defensive scheme Mike Zimmer has got this team playing well enough to hide its porous secondary. Any team with Dalvin Cook has a chance. If they pound the ball, and work play action, they can score on any defense.
The Buccaneers: They have Tom Brady. You just can’t count that dude out ever. The GOAT gets rings like they are his precious.
Despite suffering a karmic overload from signing Antonio Brown, I think the Bucs -6.5 get this one. They are tremendous at stopping the run. Without that, the Vikings will have to rely solely on Captain Kirk Cousins. On the other side, Brady will pick apart a secondary with a lot of holes.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
The Titans: Their offense is as good as any in the NFL on any given week. We saw last year where that could take them, to a conference championship game. It’s not a stretch to think they could get over the hump this year with a little luck. They need to avoid Kansas City. That is the one team that can really hurt them. They have good odds against anyone else. Matchups will be important.
The Jaguars: Welp. This will be interesting. Look. The team is clearly on a 3 (7) year plan to rebuild, so it’s tough to imagine them in the Super Bowl next year. Look at the Dolphins though. With the right coach and draft picks, you can quickly create a contender. Like the Dolphins, they have a stockpile of draft picks. There are some good pieces already in place, especially on offense. Last year at 0-7 the Dolphins were a laughing stock. Last week, nobody on the Bengals was laughing as they got pounded.
The Jags nearly pulled off yet ANOTHER “Jag” (scoring a touchdown in the waning minutes, needing a 2 pointer to tie, and not getting it) last week but this time, they got the two point conversion. This lead to a moral victory in overtime instead of at the last seconds of regulation. Still, another cover for the kings of the moral victory. I think they do it again here. The Titans are so up and down, who knows which team will show up this week. Jaguars +7.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
The Cowboys: The Cowboys are out of the mix for this year, but next year, with the return of Dak Prescott and the hopeful return to health of the offensive line, the offense should be great. If they focus on the defense in free agency and the draft, they could build enough of a defense to be a contender. (as I am saying this, Jerry Jones is probably trying to figure out how to take QB Trevor Lawrence). The NFC is still wide open, as all the major contenders are flawed.
The Bengals: They are also out of the mix for this year. Joe Burrow looked good until his leg got blown up. If they fire the coach, strengthen the offensive live, and keep working on the defense, they will be contenders in a tough division. With Roethlisberger only getting older, Lamar Jackson regressing and Baker Mayfield still not elite, there is a window for them to have the best quarterback in the division.
OK, that was stretching it. The Bengals played the dirtiest game of the season last week, with players intentionally stomping on Dolphins and repeatedly hitting Dolphin punt returners before the ball got there. This did not help them at all, as being dirty is not the same as being good. Meanwhile, the Cowboys look more competent with Andy Dalton, but that is a pretty low bar. Both coaches are bad. Let’s just take the points. Bengals +3.5.
Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants +3
The Cardinals: If Kyler Murray can get his shoulder healthy, he is a threat to any defense. You never know when he is going to go off for a 75 yard running, 300 yard passing day. If they can string together a couple wins to get the division crown, they can certainly be counted as a possible Super Bowl contender. It’s a stretch given the injuries, but I can’t count this team out.
The Giants: The Giants are probably going to the playoffs, as I like their chances to win the division. They have suddenly put together a competent defense, which keeps them in every game. They also have at least a chance Daniel Jones could pull a Joe Flacco and suddenly become a turnover-free QB for 3 games and get them in the Super Bowl.
I am so scared every time I think about picking the Giants. Their early season awfulness is clouding my judgement. I still like the Cardinals here (I am who I am), but Murray’s clear injury and their inconsistency is unnerving. I don’t like the Giants with McCoy at quarterback. I’ll say Cardinals -3
Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers -2.5
The Broncos: The Broncos are out of the mix for this season, but next year, they have a real chance. If Drew Lock can cut back on the turnovers, the young receivers will be another year older. Their running backs and O-line are good. Their defense schemes very well. They could quickly catapult past the Raiders. They won’t be better than the Chiefs, but you never know what could happen, injuries, retirements, whatever.
The Panthers: Next year, if they can shore up the defense, this team has the makings of a division champ. The Saints having been hovering over salary cap hell for years, and next year’s cap is going to break them. The Bucs Tom Brady thing isn’t going that great. The Falcons gotta Falcon. They are well positioned to be a contender for the next 5 years. They have great offensive pieces.
The Broncos did exactly what I thought last week, and played hard to earn that cover. Even if you grant the Chiefs that Hill TD catch, they still don’t cover. I’ll still go with the Panthers here, coming off the bye. They should have McCaffrey back. With all their pieces back in place, I like them to finish the season strong and get ready for next year. Panthers -2.5.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins +7
The Chiefs:
The Dolphins: It all comes down to defense. Their personnel and scheme are a beautiful marriage that puts them in position to bottle up the most explosive passing offenses. In the playoffs, you usually find… the most explosive passing offenses. The key for them is the development of Tua. If he can start putting together more touchdowns and less field goals, they have all the pieces in place. For all the criticism the pick has received in recent weeks with Herbert and Burrow supposedly being ahead of him, he has shown the ability to do what they couldn’t. Avoid interceptions. He still has 0.
This game won’t show much about the Chiefs. We know they are great, and we know they can turn it on when it matters. It is more about the Dolphins. Is their defense at a playoff level or not. Even a loss where they hold KC under 24 would be a positive. I think this game will be closer than expected, so I will take the Dolphins +7.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders +3
The Colts: They are going to test the adage that defense wins championships. They have a strong defense, but very little in the way of playmakers on offense. This team needs to play its absolute best defense in the post-season. Rivers will also need to do a Joe Flacco and miraculously avoid bad plays for 3 games in an otherwise mistake-prone career.
The Raiders: This team is young, so while they are probably out of the mix for this year, they could still do some serious damage next year. With a fast and fresh group of receivers, and a power running game, the only thing missing is more talent on defense. They will get another draft to try to find some impact players, and if they do, they could be a threat.
This is going to be me if this game gets anywhere near my TV. These two are more mediocre than a beige pant suit.
The Raiders have looked horrendous the last two weeks, so I guess I will take the Colts. Look, someone has to win this game. Colts -3
New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks -13.5
The Jets:
The Seahawks: Remember when last week I joked Russell Wilson was the problem. He actually was the problem last week, as the defense was fine. Not great, but fine. This team gets as far as Russ can take them. He needs to reconjure his early season form to get this group back in the mix. The defense has been a little better, and if it can get up to passable, this team can make a run with one of the best big game players in the league in Wilson.
As noted in the beginning, the Jets appeared to be openly tanking last week, but it would be easy to overlook something. The last two weeks they have played competitive games, and covered the spread in both. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been sputtering. The Seahawks can’t be trusted with this many points right now. Jets +13.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions +9
The Packers:
Holy shit.
The Lions: As predicted, the Lions got suddenly better last week without Matt Patricia. They have a good quarterback and good skill position players. With some help from free agency and the draft, they could have good players on defense. This team becomes an immediate playoff contender (like they were before Patricia arrived) with a good coach. The Lions couldn’t mess this up… right?
I think the Lions will be a whole lot tougher without Patricia, but I still like the Pack here. Rodgers is red hot, and the Lions just don’t have the pieces to contain him this year. Packers -9
Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Chargers +1.5
The Falcons: They have a QB who has been to a Super Bowl, and he has great wide receivers. Their defense is an atrocity, so next year, that is the place to start. If they can be effective in the draft and free agency, they can definitely get to a place where they can choke in the Super Bowl again. I didn’t say they had to win it… just get there.
The Chargers: They have awesome players all over the roster. This team should be 9-3, not 3-9. They have been coached to disaster. It’s amazing, in a league with a lot of parity, how being unprepared can take so many 1 score wins into score losses. The one score loss has been a Chargers specialty as long as I can remember. Maybe this is why. (via Mike Sando)
Holy shit.
This game is incredibly meaningless. If I could take the Falcons to win by 20 I would. Thankfully, I don’t have to. Falcons -1.5
Washington Football Team vs. San Francisco 49ers -3.5
WFT: People wonder why teams hire coaches like Ron Rivera, who is neither an excellent offensive or defensive coach. It’s because a coach like Rivera provides structure, authority and accountability to a team. You look at teams like the Bengals since Marvin Lewis left and you see why they kept Marvin Lewis as long as they did. Without someone to provide structure, you are lost, and the front offices of both the Bengals and WFT are a disaster, so the head coach has to provide it. If their defense continues on this trajectory, we could be looking at the Rivera Bears defense that laid waste to the NFL in the late 2000’s.
The 49ers: They just need to get healthy. They are somehow still in the mix for the playoffs this season, but it is next season they have their eyes on. With everyone back healthy, this team could easily be right back in the Super Bowl again.
This is going to be a true smash mouth game. The WFT has been much more competent with Alex Smith under center, providing at least turnover free football if nothing else. Meanwhile, the 49ers just try to gut it out each week. I think the WFT can shut down the 49ers run game, and Nick Mullens is simply not a good QB. I’ll take the WFT +3.5.
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
The Saints: This team needs it’s defense to be consistently great. They have occasionally great performances, but they need to lock that in. Their offense will score enough, but the defense needs to play good for 3 straight games to get it done. I think they have the talent to do it. Meanwhile, they need Drew Brees to be healthy, and to play as well as his backups do.
The Eagles: The ship has sailed for this season. I think they need to move on from Carson Wentz. I think if they create an offense around Jalen Hurts, like the one the Ravens put around Lamar Jackson, they could make a similar leap. The key is addressing the holes in the secondary. They need another top line CB and a safety. If the defense gets better, they could quickly retake the NFC East.
AHHHHHHHHH!!!!!! Well shit.
These are two teams going in very different directions. Saints -7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills -1.5
The Steelers: This team will get as far as Big Ben can take them. I said it last week, and I will say it again. He is the key. He has been struggling the last few weeks to keep the offense humming. If he can find his early season form again, and find more big plays down the field, this team has the defense to win it all.
Buffalo Bills: This team will get as far as Josh Allen can take them. I said it last week, and I will say it again. He is the key. He has been stepping up the last few weeks, keeping the offense humming. If he can avoid his mid season form, and keep finding big plays down the field, this team has enough defense to win it all.
This brutal schedule has not helped the Steelers, but I think the loss might have been good for them. They had been barely winning for weeks, and it felt like they had gotten complacent. I wonder if this will jolt them back into reality. Meanwhile the Bills show no signs of slowing down. It’s strange because, in a lot of ways, Ben and Josh are similar. Both are big, strong guys, with big arms and the ability to absorb hits. Where they are not the same is age. I will keep riding the Bills -1.5, especially at home in December.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns +2
The Ravens: Look, we know the offense can be great. Why it has not been great this year is a product of defenses adjusting to Lamar Jackson and injuries. They are probably out of the mix this year, especially after the Corona virus thing, but if they can get the O-line healthy and add a couple pieces, develop Lamar further and keep the defense together, there is no reason to think they can’t get right back in the mix next year.
The Browns: This is a team clearly on the upswing. Everyone got very excited about Baker Mayfield’s incredible performance last weekend, but the Titans are the second worse pass defense in the NFL (The Jets still exist). It would be expected that he would have a good week. This week is the test. If he can prove he can throw it this week, then this team is capable of going to the Super Bowl.
This one feels like a handing of the baton from one contender to another, but I am deeply suspicious. The Ravens are going to be a VERY desperate team. This is their last shot at preserving real playoff hopes. If they lose this one, they probably have to win out. While their schedule looks easy, they have been making easy games hard. I think they empty the playbook this week and surprise a high riding Browns squad. Of course the Browns have been waiting a long time to get revenge for this…
Ravens -2