Last week: 5-9-2
Current Year: 109-110-4
Well, that was a disaster. I was feeling deeply suspicious of my picks after I made them and realized how many favorites I picked, and boy did I pay for it. So many close losses, two pushes, and a holiday heaping of regrets. It’s tough to go back in time on these, but I would love to have taken my own advice about the season pushing so many of these teams back into the middle. I also want to give credit to the odds makers who got a lot of games very close to the final score. In order to turn this around, we need another guest picker to pick me up. For this week, I am going to go Holiday style, giving each team a Christmas song that best represents them. First, week in review.
Best Call: The Bills continue to be my saving grace. Unlike most favorites, they are having no trouble figuring out how to pummel teams into spread submission (phrasing). This week’s victim, the Denver Broncos, had actually been playing ok the last few weeks before running into the Western NY Buzzsaw. Bills is no longer famous wild west character with no discernable connection to NY. Now they are the Dolla Bills. If you aren’t throwing your Dolla Bills behind them every week you are crazy.
Worst call:
Well, the line is wrapping around the concourse as I write, which is problematic for someone who is supposed to be a fake expert. Bad Beat: Most of my defeats were of the epic “Boy do you suck at this” kind. The Bucs were a 1/2 yard from having to kick a covering field goal with time running out. Sadly they got the first down and were able to do kneel downs from the Atlanta 9. Speaking of that game: here is a quick pic of some games the Falcons have lost…
The Falcons’ mojo is so bad, the Bucs’ karma had to sit this one out. It was so bad the source of the karma even got a TD. Is it the Vick dogfighting thing? The former Man of the Year Eugene Robinson getting busted on a prostitution sting the day before a Super Bowl? Wasting Deion Sanders? I don’t know, but it’s super bad.
Now we head into Christmas weekend and I do want to wish my readers a Merry Christmas, and if Christmas isn’t your jam, Happy Holidays. Speaking of Christmas, JC Braz wrote a fun article about some of the worst Christmas songs, check it out here, and I am going to keep this going by assigning every team a Christmas song to represent them this weekend. I will link up to Spotify so you can sit through them if you want. If not, I don’t blame you. Hopefully all this holiday cheer will get me headed back on the right track.
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints -7
The Vikings: What better for a Vikings fan this season than an ode to your (and Justin Jefferson’s) relationship with Kirk Cousins.
The Saints: Here comes Drew Brees, here comes Drew Brees, right down Beale Street, he’s got short passes for all his WR and Running backs the same…
The game: I am learning my lesson from last week. This seems like a game the Saints should win going away, but the Vikings are not as bad as they have played the last few weeks. Drew can’t pressure up top (where the Vikings are the weakest). Meanwhile, I think the Vikings treat this game like the Bengals treated that Monday-nighter. This is their Super Bowl. They aren’t going to the playoffs. Vikings +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions +9.5
The Bucs: Tom Brady the red nosed liar, had very shiny playoff record. But it seems like now he blows. All of the other Buccaneers, used to laugh and call his plays. They never let poor Brady, throw the ball down the field all the way. Then one foggy playoff year, Bruce Arians came to say, Brady with your arm so weak, won’t you just handoff this week…
The Lions: They will actually be home for good after New Years, but you get the point.
The game: I don’t trust the Bucs with this many points. I know the Lions are bad, but the Bucs keep having games they should win, be way closer than they should be. Lions +9.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals -5
The 49ers: And rotator cuffs, fresh knee ligaments, a COVID free week, some sturdy ankles etc. I’ll spare you the kid screeching version of this one.
The Cardinals: I’m pretty sure this is about Kyler Murray. You can check though. A star dancing through the night tho for sure.
I’m gonna stick with my beloved Cardinals here. The 49ers lost in week 1 when they had everyone healthy. Now with everyone gone, I don’t see the result improving, that’s for sure. Cardinals -5
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders +3
The Dolphins: Only one team out here rockin’ the Hawaiian QB this year…
The Raiders: Every year… every Christmas… 8-8
The Game: Do you know why this line is 3? Because I don’t. I’m not saying the Raiders can’t win, but with the Dolphins getting their offensive players back, and Derek Carr either out or limited, I have no idea how they would. This feels like the 8 on the losing side for the Raiders. Next week can be the 8 on the winning side. Dolphins -3
Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
The Bears: Little Saint Nick Foles my ass…
The Jaguars: The you is Trevor Lawrence with the first pick. Special thanks to the Jest for making this happen.
The Game: The Bears have re-awakened their team by doing something no one saw coming. They stopped relying on their horrible quarterbacks to move the ball and let their solid running backs do it. What a revelation. It’s going to be so sad this offseason when they miss the playoffs by a tie-breaker because it took them 10 weeks to figure out to stop using their awful quarterbacks. The Jaguars literally CANNOT win this game without turning the above song into Last Christmas. Bears -7.5
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers +2
The Colts: Philip will play his best for them… barumpapumpum.
The Steelers: The Steelers can believe in Ben all they want, but he was run over by a reindeer like 4 weeks ago.
The Game: Do you believe in the Steelers right now? It’s really hard to right now. They looked like molten garbage last week, and Big Ben looked like the end result after the garbage re-solidifies. Meanwhile, the Colts did Colts stuff and snuck away with a victory. I don’t feel good about this, but we are in desperation mode for the Steelers now, who have to stop the bleeding this week before they end up behind the Browns in the division race, something I never would have considered a month ago. Steelers +2
New York Giants vs. Baltimore Ravens -11
The Giants: On the first day of the NFL new year, my GM gave to me, 5 bad linemen, 4 no name wideouts, 3 draft picks out of the NFL, 2 expensive RBs and a QB who throws INTs.
The Ravens: Passing? Not this year…
The game:
The Ravens have been red hot, but 11 points is a bit much for me here. I think Daniel Jones returns and the offense puts up enough points to cover. Giants +11
Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs -10.5
The Falcons: I’m not sure anything can bring them out of this funk, but if a bunch of musicians getting together to solve world hunger can do it for Africa, I’m sure it can fix the depressed Falcons fans. (*hunger in Africa has not been resolved at this time)
The Chiefs: I mean, what can you say. It’s all sunshine in Kansas City this time of year.
The game: The Falcons can’t stop the pass. They can’t run the ball. The Chiefs only pass, and they’re only real weakness is stopping the run. This does not make any sense if you want to go Falcons. Let’s just let this team die with dignity. Chiefs -10.5
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets +9.5
The Browns: This is the happiest Christmas in the current incarnation of the Cleveland Browns. Everybody in the sixth city is feelin’ it.
The Jets: listen to this if you want a genuine Jets fan experience.
The game: the Browns are riding high. Their offense has come together, their defense is putting together a good stretch. The Steelers are fading. This is their time to stand and deliver what Cleveland fans have yearned for: dominant play from a heavy favorite. The Jets blew not just this season, but all past and future seasons last week. It was all for nothing. Listen to Christmas Shoes again and imagine if Marty McFly DID disappear. Browns -9.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans -8.5
The Bengals: Dear Bengals fans, please consume in moderation and do not get behind the wheel.
The Texans: This feels like a blow by blow of how the Texans got Deshaun Watson to sign that contract extension.
The game: Do you want to give the Texans this many points? Because I don’t. Bengals +8.5
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers -3.5
The Broncos:
*John Elway walks into bathroom and turns on shower
*with a forlorn look, Elway walks in and starts to sing in the highest pitch possible..
“I want a real quarterback for Christmas, anyone just like me will do…”
The Chargers: I’ll have a baby Blue Christmas, until I fire you… Anthony Lynn
The game: Why would you make the Chargers the significant favorite here? There is no proof they can run a competent game plan. At least the Broncos were playing well until they got throttled by the Bills. DO NOT TRUST THE CHARGERS. Broncos +3.5
Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Football Team -2.5
The Panthers: It’s going to be a sad Christmas after the firing of GM Marty Hurney, architect of the Cam Newton years. It’s hard to say goodbye to the past.
The WFT: For the team with the most name based confusion…
The game: I have a sneaking suspicion there will still be no McCaffrey. Without the threat of the run, the WFT defense will lock this game down. WFT -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys +2
The Eagles: Last Christmas, we gave Carson Wentz Cheers, this year, to save us from tears, we will give them to someone special… Jalen Hurts
The Cowboys: This explains a lot about the current Cowboys team. It seems like he did get lost again.
The game: I don’t think the Cowboys are going to be the ones who figure out how to slow down Jalen Hurts. Last week Jalen Hurts produced more TDs than Carson Wentz did in any game in his career. 4. Might want to stay with this for a bit and see where it goes. Eagles -2
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks -1.5
The Rams: Despite last week’s massive let down, the Rams still have Aaron Donald baddest man in football, so in his honor…
The Seahawks: With Russell Wilson ready to do his usual magic, December and January are the Seahawks’ most wonderful time of the year.
The game: I mean, these are two of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams in the NFL. I have no idea what either will do on any given week, so let’s just assume they will do the opposite of last week. Rams +1.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers -3.5
The Titans: In case you missed it…
Oh my, will someone PLEASE think of the children. Handing off to Derrick Henry is the happiest sleigh ride of all.
The Packers: It’s that time of year for the coldest of cold weather teams…
The game: This is one of the worst run defenses against Derrick Henry and one of the worst pass defenses vs. Aaron Rodgers. I have no idea which is the better matchup, but they are both VERY favorable. I like Henry a little more. Getting hit when it is 20 degrees by Derrick Henry sounds like the worst experience possible. Titans +3.5
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots +7
The Bills: I imagine every Bills fan I know quietly singing this song to Josh Allen on Friday.
The Patriots: Coming up in two weeks for the Patriots… a welcome break from 2 decades of winning.
The game: this does not seem like nearly enough points. The Bills are going to stick the knife so deep into the Patriots that you are gonna need an MRI to find it. Bills -7