Overall Record: 17-14
Last Week: 7-9
After getting off to a slow start in week 1, the odds-makers evened things out and struck a blow for mediocrity. I finished a disappointing Jeff Fisheresque 7-9. Hopefully this week will see a return to the joy of week 1. The most disappointing aspect of this last week was losing out on the games I felt most confident in, mostly due to backdoor covers (or failed backdoor covers). This was one of those weeks where it felt like I was on the losing end of all the backdoor covers out there (until Sunday night), regardless of which side I took.
Best Call: Packers -6.5
The Aaron Rodgers revenge tour continued unchallenged this week, as they romped to an easy win over the short-handed Lions. Even the hot start by the Lions in this one did not leave me concerned. With Aaron Rodgers refocused, this looks like a team that will be tough to slow down.
Worst Call: Probably saying you shouldn't bet a ton of favorites and then doing it. If I have to pick just one game though…Washington +7. There are so many candidates for this list. I felt confident that the Steelers, Bills, Panthers and Titans would cover and they all fell victim to the dreaded back door cover (or in the Panthers case, stopped the back door cover on the 4 yard line). I still feel confident, though, in my evaluation of these squads. The call I feel least validated in was the pick against the Cardinals. The Cardinal’s showed me they are not a flash in the pan, and so far no one seems to have an answer for Kyler Murray, who has left two of the NFL’s best defenses in his proverbial and literal dust.
Bad Beat: A lot of candidates here too, due to all the lost covers, but the best/worst is probably the Steelers just deciding not to kick the field goal that would have covered at the end. They dramatically outplayed the Broncos, but I didn’t live to tell about it.
This week, the theme of the week is going to be desperation. A team can be 0-2 and make the playoffs (around a 10 percent chance), but 0-3 almost completely ends your hope (six teams ever). This means that some bad teams are going to give it all they have to avoid this fate. I am going to be picking a lot of teams that I sense will be playing with desperation at their back this week. The other major factor will be injuries as a number of teams were crushed by massive injuries undercutting the hopes of this season. Finally, new coaches continue to struggle, going 1-4 against the spread again. Let’s keep riding that wave, too, where we can.
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -3
To a continuing lack of fanfare, I released my pick on Twitter, where I took the desperate Dolphins +3 to an easy win. The Dolphins fancy themselves as a deep sleeper playoff team. While I see the sleep more than the deep, I knew this was a must win game for them with that mindset. Also, the Bills and Pats are both playoff teams, so of course those games were tough. The Dolphins kept both games close throughout. The Jags are going to be frustrating to predict all season. They have a good enough offense to cover and a bad enough defense to get blown out. My hunch is you will need to bet the opposite of what is expected from them. They were expected to win this week, so they lost.
Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -4
The Texans went full-on, baby-steppin Bob and were absolutely smoked by two straight vastly superior opponents. The Steelers, on the other hand, cruised against weaker teams. Big Ben continues to look good (albeit not great), and the Defense has looked very strong, although they quietly gave up a lot of yardage and points to two bad offenses (one riding its backup for most of the game). These types of outcomes will probably lead people to downplay the Texans and overvalue the Steelers. Both of these teams avoided the injury bug in week 2. Both have experienced coaches… so we fall to desperation. I think the Texans NEED this game, and the Steelers will simply want it. Texans +4
Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings +2.5
The Titans continued to play strong football, building a large lead last week against the Jaguars; however, they failed to hold it, and nearly lost. The week before, as you may recall, they managed to let the Broncos stick around, before winning at the last second. The Vikings meanwhile, had the kind of collapse these last two weeks that you only see in those Engineering Disaster documentaries on the History Channel. The Vikings are clearly in the midst of what they feel is a retool, not a rebuild, but it is starting to look more like a rebuild to those of us on the outside. Ultimately, I think their own expectation is important here, and I think they are going to be desperate for a win, because they view themselves as contenders. I’ll take the Vikings +2.5
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons -3.5
This is a very strange line that sees the 2-0 Bears getting points from the 0-2 Falcons. I doubt this has happened very much in NFL history, but it doesn’t exactly feel wrong. The Trubisky Experience produced another half of good football, and also a not-so-good half of football. The Bears defense looks legitimately good, and they will make life much more difficult for the Falcons than the black hole of the Cowboys secondary. However, as we keep noting, the Falcons are desperate. At this point, the coach is coaching for his job. I expect them to empty the playbook here as they try to hang on to the last few droplets of hope for this season. They are probably also very angry after blowing an all-timer to the Cowboys last week. Falcons -3.5
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots -5.5
Cam Newton looks to be 100 percent back. Healthy for what feels like the first time in forever, he is back to being a force of nature on the goal line and a cannon between the 20s. The Pats defense, however, had a hard time stopping the best quarterback in the NFL. Overall, I think these two things even out and mean the Pats are still just fine.
As for the Raiders… one time I was rollerblading down a hill. I got up to max speed, but realized I was losing control. I reached out to grab something, and I barely grabbed it. This spun me around and I hurtled, unencumbered and back-first, into the grill of a parked Mack Truck. This caused me to face plant. The Raiders exist in the same way that truck does or a mogul a ski slope. If you hurtle into them without any plan, they will cause you pain. However, if you put in an effort (or remember what your instructor said), you can probably avoid the Truck/Mogul and continue on your way. The Patriots ALWAYS put in that effort. Patriots -5.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. NY Giants +4
If you just felt your knee twinge a little, it’s because you just saw those two team names above. Absolutely obliterated by injuries, the 49ers rolled to a routine victory over the Jets. The Giants, less fortunate in opponent, but more fortunate with their injuries (barely) fell just short against the Bears. The Giants are 0-2 and desperate at this point, but not as desperate as some of the previous teams. I don’t think anyone had them sneaking into the playoffs this year, so their 0-2 feels more “acceptable” than some of the others. On the other side is where we see the massive advantage: The Coach. Kyle Shanahan could get 200 yards rushing out of a shopping cart, Paulie Shore pushing it and a tackling dummy with the ball taped to it handing off. Joe Judge has never been more than a special teams coordinator who, thus far, has shown no ability to get his team to do anything. I will stick with the 49ers -4, thanks.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
The Bengals showed last Thursday that they can move the ball in the air and on the ground. Thus far the Eagles have shown they… can use Jalen Hurts sometimes. Despite looking much more competent than the week before, they still got bullied by the Rams. The reprieve is finally here though. In the Eagles, we have another team that fancies itself a contender, is 0-2, has continuity and saw most of the injured return last week. More than anything, this is the first bad defensive line they will see. For another week we can avoid deciding that Carson Wentz isn’t good, although it is still very much in question. My one worry here is that the line is awfully high for a team that got crushed the last 2 weeks and Pro Football Focus has rated as the worst in the NFL. Still… Eagles -4.5
Washington Football Team vs. Cleveland Browns -7.5
How the HELL did the Browns get 7.5 points? STOP GIVING THE BROWNS THIS MANY POINTS. The “WFT” (I like that this sounds like a wrestling alliance, although I think we all regret that it isn’t the Washington Team of Football) looked pretty bad in the Cardinals game, but so did the Browns against the Ravens. They looked great against the Eagles, and the Browns looked OK against the Bengals. Full disclosure, this should be a pick ‘em. I have no idea what is happening here. I am going to stop short of saying this is the easiest line of the week, only because the WFT offense cannot be fully trusted (as they showed last week). You know what else can’t be trusted though? EVERY SINGLE THING RELATED TO THE BROWNS. WFT +7.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills -2.5
This is going to be a tough matchup to call. Both teams have solid defenses and mercurial quarterbacks. Both teams made it look pretty easy in the last two weeks. Ultimately this game, like every Bills game, is going to come down to whether we see good Josh Allen or bad Josh Allen. The Bills also have another problem: the second half. They have shown consistently over the last several games they have played, dating back to last season, that they struggle to handle adjustments teams make to them in the second half. In their last six games (not counting the end of season Jets game no one played in) they have lost the second half 5 times in six tries. This includes week 1 against a Jets team that got destroyed by the 49ers practice squad last week. The Bills are still very good, but they need to address this issue. I will go Rams +2.5
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts -11.5
WOW. The Jets are unspeakably bad. There are so many things one could point too, but my favorite is the 54 yard run on 3rd and 31 (seen above). The Jets are headed to a battle for the number one overall pick. Their players are bemoaning a lack of effort in practice. Their skill position players are so bad that my namesake is considering them for The Replacements 2: The Lest of the Rest. The Colts, meanwhile, avenged their loss to the Jaguars, by giving the Vikings the old Stone Cold Stunner. So who are the Colts? I don’t know. Rivers still threw a pick. I still think he is washed. The ground game looks great though. The real problem here is the 11.5 points. That is just SOOOO many points. You don’t realize it until your team is up 14, playing prevent, and you realize the other team just needs a field goal to scuttle the whole thing. So will the Jets lose? Definitely. Will it be by 11.5? I don’t think so. I think Adam Gase knows he is coaching for his job at this point and he will throw everything out there this week. I’ll take Jets +11.5
Carolina Panthers vs. San Diego Chargers -6.5
The Chargers beat the Bengals by 3 and lost to the Chiefs in OT by 3. In both games, their defense shined, as they show the ability to play tough against teams that throw. In both games their offense looked limited, more so with Tyrod Taylor back there. The Panthers will be without the services of Christian McCaffrey. This is a very painful loss, as few players account for more of their team’s offense. Their defense has yet to stop anyone. This should be easy. I’m going to pass on the easy button, though. Here is the problem. I think the Chargers play to the level of their competition. I think the Panthers are desperate for a win, and I think this line will get warped by the McCaffrey news and the Chargers great showing against KC. I’ll try (is that non-committal enough) the Panthers +6.5
Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals -5.5
People need to start putting some respect on the Cardinals name. They are consistently beating their spreads by an average of 10 points. Their defense has been very good, and their offense nigh unstoppable. The Lions offense is fine, but their defense is full of holes. They are also likely desperate, but I simply think Matt Patricia is a terrible coach. Remember when the Lions hired Matt Patricia? That same week, the Colts hired Josh McDaniels. Bill Belichick flew into a panic and he and Kraft raced against time to save… Josh McDaniels. They might as well have carried Patricia’s bags to the airport. There is a reason for that. Matt Patricia simply isn’t a good coach. The Lions fired Jim Caldwell (the winningest coach in Lions history) after two straight 9-7 seasons. Matt Patricia also has 9 wins… in two plus years. It’s not the talent or the organization. It’s Matt Patricia. You’re damn right it’s him. Cardinals -5.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks -4.5
Wait a second. Are you telling me the Cowboys are getting the same amount of points as the Patriots got from the Seahawks? The Patriots. With Cam Newton and one of the league’s best defenses? The Cowboys, with a turn-style defense and hot and cold QB? If I took the points in that game, I am definitely taking them here too. As bad as the Cowboys defense was last week, Russell Wilson might transcend this plane of existence and throw for 8 TDs. This is just a repeat of the Falcons game. Literally. The Cowboys just needed a miracle to beat the Falcons. This is the easiest pick of the week, narrowly edging the Cardinals. Seahawks -4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos +5.5
Here we have a Buccaneers team that is overrated, and a Broncos team that sure looked like it got better with the Lock subtraction. I have a lot of respect for Tom Brady, just not this Tom Brady. While he was able to take advantage of a porous secondary last week, the Broncos are much tougher. The Broncos defense has put in good work the last two games. And the Broncos are…. desperate. They need this win to stay alive in the west, and there is no question Vic Fangio is on the hot seat. This spread would not have covered the Broncos game with the Steelers or the Titans, both of whom are as good as the Bucs. I will continue to take any large amounts of points I can be granted in Bucs games. Broncos +5.5
Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints -3
You know who is tired of hearing about Drew Brees’ numbers and accomplishments? Aaron Rodgers. You know who is still super angry about his backup being selected in the draft instead of WR help? Aaron Rodgers. You know who has thrown for 6 TDs so far this season? Aaron Rodgers. I am far more worried about the Saints offense with a limited Michael Thomas than a Packers offense with a limited Davante Adams. More than anything, I think Drew Brees has lost his fastball, and Aaron Rodgers is just discovering his again. I am going to stick with the hot hand. Packers -3
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Probably the best regular season game of the year, this matchup pits the two best teams in the NFL head to head. Without a home field advantage to speak of, this one is about talent and scheme. The Chiefs were clearly looking ahead last week, and their shit-the-bed performance nearly cost them the win. It also pushed this line to the Ravens, who have looked unstoppable so far. This game is an easy pick for me though. I'm taking the points. I don't think there is any real difference here. These teams are even. Either could win. It probably will come down to who has the ball last. In that case, I just want the points and hope to get lucky. Plus, if there is one player in the NFL I don't want to bet against on a late backdoor cover, it's Mahomes. I'll roll the dice on Chiefs +3.5.
Only one I don't agree on....... Take the Saints and the points..... IMHO
Good call on the Pack!!!