Week 3 record: 8-8
Overall Record: 25-22
The stench of mediocrity continued to wash over my picks this week. I did manage to pick out some good ones, but some truly terrible picks doomed my week. Let’s take a look back at what was.
Best Call: Carolina over the Chargers was the call I felt best about this week. My belief that the Chargers play to their competition was richly rewarded when they flat-lined a week after playing the Chiefs to a near draw. I feel as though this is one team I have a bead on.
Worst Call: Several come to mind, but probably the Cardinals, who buried me for claiming they deserved respect. That was probably the closest I got to payback last week. The Cardinals “paid back” my faith with a straight up “et tu, brute”. Thanks guys.
Bad Beat: Probably the PI call at the end of Bills/Rams as the Bills almost rewarded my prediction of a second half collapse. It would have been nice to attain the spoils for that near perfect assessment. The Bills are another squad I feel I have a bead on. The Rams on the other hand… not so much. Speaking of the Rams…
After three games we have a good enough sample size to spot some trends. The Jets (four games now) are an atrocity that would warrant UN intervention if it weren’t so on brand. The Chargers only fill their battery to the level of their opposition. The Bills open up leads and give them back. But some teams are more mysterious. This week we will play a little game called ‘What the Bleep Do We Know?’
Let’s also keep a close eye on the panic meter. Some of these teams are still in panic mode, and will be putting their best foot forward. And guess what, new coaches went 2-3 ATS (one win was over another new coach)! The gift that keeps giving.
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets +2.5
What a horrible game. The Jets are violently bad. Did you know I picked them to cover last week? Neat. I am learning. This week’s humorous Jets anecdote is Mark Sanchez claiming the Jets are not ready to compete. I mean, he would know. The Broncos have certainly struggled with most of their highest priced players out. Their prize defensive tackle is now out for the year. Still…
What the Bleep Did We Know?
The Jets are not good at any aspect of the game. The closest they come is in the passing game where I suspect they would be able to put up some points if they had their starting running back, top 2 wide receivers and a tight end that can catch. They actually did this weeek.
The Broncos have been ravaged by injury. Most of their key players have missed time with injuries in the early going. This is one of the teams that I feel we know the least about so far. What would this team be like with it’s key players in place? We might never find out.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears +2.5
The Colts have recovered nicely from a flat showing against the Jaguars. No matter how washed Philip Rivers looks, it won’t matter if their defense and ground game are dominant. The Bears burned me last week because they put in an NFL quarterback (no fair!) for the fourth quarter. Had I known they were going to do that, I would have been way more on board. It’s not a crazy idea, and it beats being a tromboner in the Titanic Trubisky Band.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Colts can run the ball. Like really well. Since Marlon Mack went down, Jonathan Taylor has Lou Gehrig’ed his Wally Pipp ass. Philip Rivers cannot be trusted. The defense is strong, but they still haven’t taken on a good team. The BEST team they have played so far is the Jaguars.
The Bears have been repeatedly tested and every time they have come out on top. The offense has struggled outside of maybe 3 quarters of absolutely mind blowing efficiency. The defense has dominated… the Giants and Lions without Kenny Golladay.
Due to a total lack of competition we still have no idea who these teams are. The one thing I do believe in 100% for these two teams is the Colts ground game. This game will probably conclude with 29 seconds left and Philip Rivers driving the length of the field with no timeouts, but… Colts -2.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys -4.5
The Browns took advantage of the lack of development in Dwayne Haskins this year to wreck the WFT. They also put up a lot of points on a good defense for the first time this year. It appears the team is starting to get the new offense by Kevin Stefanski. The Cowboys meanwhile can put up ALL the points. They also give up ALL the points. Like a black hole sucking in an incredible offensive spaceship, the Cowboys defense will continue to haunt them right up until they lose in the first round, despite (because of) being the first team to win their division at 6-10.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Browns’ offense has been showing signs of life. Baker Mayfield has quietly gotten better each week. The team has shown more comfort with their play action passing game, and they are dominating on the ground. Their defense was quite porous up to last week, when they put the throttle on the man who is now the worst starting QB with Mitch Trubisky out.
The Cowboys offense moves the ball VERY well when the other team is in prevent. Without a pass rush to put him off his mark, Dak Prescott picks teams apart. The defense is a black hole, but not the good kind from Interstellar. The bad kind from everything else.
Both of these teams are awesome at the things you need to do to back door cover and give up a back door cover. So let’s take the team getting the points. Browns +4.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions +4.5
The Saints are a mystery team to the ultimate degree. The Lions are not a mystery. They got better with Kenny Golladay back. They can throw the ball. That’s it. They solved their desperation situation last week as well. Now it is the Saints who cannot afford to lose again. These two teams are both 1-2, but they feel VERY differently about it. The Saints feel very bad. The Lions are fine.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Saints are a total mystery. Is Drew Brees good? He was last week, but not the first two. Is the ground game good? It was after the first week. Is the defense good? It stumped the Bucs, and got crushed by the Raiders and Packers. The one semblance of consistency is the rush defense, which has been good.
The Lions can move the ball in the air, but it takes everything they have not to blow every lead they get. They emptied the tank last week and when their backs were against the wall, they barely beat the Cardinals. The Lions need to control the ball with their offense to win.
I see the Saints in desperation mode this week. I also see a possibility of Michael Thomas returning (has there ever been a bigger gap between how interesting a person’s name is and their ability at sports?). I don’t think the Lions can control the ball against the Saints rush D. Saints -4.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins +6
This game has me weirdly nervous as an aggressive Seahawks shill. As predicted, Russell Wilson shredded a soft Cowboys defense, but yet again, the Seahawks let a lesser team put up big points. The LEAST points they have allowed is 25. Now, they have taken on 3 excellent offenses in the Falcons, Pats and Cowboys so I can give them some leeway there… The Dolphins have very quietly been a good offense. Over their last 8 games (let’s not count week one when they were clearly rusty against a good Pats D), they averaged 28 points per game. They are a more dangerous back door cover team than you realize.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Seahawks have been hit by a slew of injuries, including All Pro Safety Jamal Adams and star running back Chris Carson. The drop off from him to Carlos Hyde is startling. They have injuries across the offensive line. The defense has been very leaky. It hasn’t mattered. Remember my threat that Russell Wilson might transcend this plane of existence? He did. He now has 214 touchdowns this season (statistics courtesy of FiveThirtyEight).
The Dolphins also have a solid secondary when everyone is healthy, and Byron Jones might return this week. Their is at least a chance they can put the breaks to Russell Wilson and hold him to three touchdown passes. Their rush defense is awful.
It is going to be 85, wet, and near 100 percent humidity on Sunday. Teams often come down to Miami this time of year and they are totally unprepared for the horrors of the climate. It’s a west coast team going east at 1pm. The loss of Carson hurts the thing they have most dominance over the Dolphins in. Finally, the Dolphins offense is dangerous for covers and the Seahawks defense tends to give up points. This is probably my most controversial pick of the year so far. I am taking the Dolphins +6. My Seattle-based sister is going to be livid.
San Diego Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7
The Bucs have heated up. The offense has gotten stronger in all phases, and the defense is still strong, especially against the run. Tom Brady is still weak and gives up some plays, but it won’t matter if they can build a lead and hold it. The Chargers continue to play to the level of their competition. Every game decided in the waning moments by less than a touchdown. They muck things up and play in the dirt.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Chargers defense will limit your points. They have held down the opposition very effectively. While 21 points to the Panthers seems soft, their offense didn’t do much to help them. Their offense can move the ball on the ground and in the air, but the inexperience of Herbert means they struggle in key situations. HOWEVER, they have been crushed by injuries on the defensive side with 5 starters now on IR.
The Buccaneers are up and down on offense, but their run defense is devastating. Their pass defense is less so, but still very good. This is a defense first team, despite the names on offense. The offense just needs to avoid blowing it each week like in week 1.
I was going to take the Chargers here, but the rash of injuries on defense worries me. I don’t think they can get this under a touchdown, and I question their ability to back door cover.
Tampa Bay -7
Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans -4
The Texans are trapped in very dark corner right now. They are 0-3. They have no first round pick. Bill O’Brien made one of the worst trades of my lifetime in the offseason and it shows. He is probably coaching for his job, at least as GM. Last week they played better, but lost. The Vikings corner isn’t much better. Unlike the Texans though, they have 12 draft picks in the next draft. They have started shedding veterans and bad contracts. They are still likely playing for their coach’s job at this point. Last week they played better, but lost.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Vikings pass defense is very feeble. While it will likely improve as the season wears on, just due to the experience the young players will get, it is pretty bad right now. I’m not sure how much of a run defense they have, because teams haven’t needed to run. Kirk Cousins is… ok. Like usual. Kevin Stefanski’s departure to the Browns hurt, considering the team has a defensive-minded head coach in Mike Zimmer. Thus far, there isn’t much to feel good about.
The Texans have DeShaun Watson, and he is a well regarded veteran at this point, who knows what he is doing. The exchange of DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson looks like a colossal disaster so far, as Johnson still looks washed, and Hopkins looks like he wasn’t being used well enough in Houston, where he was an All-Pro. On defense, they have offered very little resistance and the Hail Mary for Earl Thomas this week won’t do much.
The Texans corner is a little darker than the Vikings corner, so I expect them to go full Captain America-in-an-elevator to try and escape. When in doubt, take the better QB.
Texans -4
Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Football Team +13.5
The Ravens were brought back down to earth by the Chiefs last week, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t great. They have shown they can move the ball in the air and on the ground. With Jackson and Ingram, they can punch it in once they get to the red zone. Their defense is still very good. Lots of teams struggle to contain a focused Patrick Mahomes. Meanwhile, the WFT stunk up the joint in a major way last week. They couldn’t move the ball, and as film mounts on Dewayne Haskins, his ability to open it up and throw downfield safely seems to decline. This team also shows no ability to move the ball on the ground.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Ravens struggle to beat good teams. Most of the major games they have played in the Lamar Jackson era have lead to difficulty or outright failure. They have obliterated bad teams in a way that is shocking. They have some of the biggest blowouts of the last few years. Once they get ahead and can balance their run and pass they can pull away like no one else.
The WFT has a very strong defensive line, and not much else. Their offense is a lost cause, and the more film teams have to evaluate to learn tendencies, the worse I think it will get for Haskins. On defense, they can slow teams with a weak offensive line and an immobile quarterback by collapsing the pocket.
This is a TON of points to give a team, but the Ravens will cover it. Here’s a list of why
This is very quietly a rivalry game, in that the Ravens LOVE to remind everyone that they are the real team of the Chesapeake.
The Ravens CRUSH bad teams.
The Ravens are angry after losing.
The one strength of the WFT is totally negated by a player who loves to see the pocket collapse.
Ravens -13.5
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers +3
Which one of these people is the worst? (feel free to leave a comment at the bottom)
The Cardinals (in the red shirt obviously) left me out on the limb, sawed it off, dug out a two story hole, filled it half full of water, and put a lid on after I fell in. I just watched in horror. Guess what? They are still good (he says as they pour concrete mix in the water). Kyler Murray had a bad game. That’s it. The Panthers are much more confusing. This did not seem to be their week with McCaffrey out, yet they won over the Chargers. They are part of that mid tier of teams that can do anything in any week. Can they run the ball? Sure, sometimes. Can they pass? SOMETIMES! Can they stop the run? Maybe. Can they stop the pass? A little bit.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Cardinals are not a juggernaut. They are just really good. Three interceptions will derail anyone. They clearly aren’t bullet proof, so one needs to monitor the points they get in each matchup carefully. I still feel very comfortable in my analysis, but being only a second year QB, Murray isn’t as reliable as, say, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, or Matt Ryan.
The Panthers have a new coach this year. That’s about all I am sure of. They won’t be as desperate this week, having avoided 0-3. Probably.
This line was going to be silly before the Cardinals coughed up last weeks game. Then the Panthers won. That only brought down the line, made the Cardinals angry and refocused, and helped the Panthers relax. And the Panthers have a new coach. Classic bounce back here, Cardinals -3
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals -3
I don’t have any idea why there is a favorite in this game. Sure, the Jaguars lost bad last week, but we explained that with the Dolphins desperation. Fresh off kissing their sister, the Bengals look… meh. So far the Jaguars have looked… meh. Let’s try not to waste time with this preview.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
This game probably should have been the Thursday Night Game. No one is going to watch this game. The Jaguars have very few fans other than Jason (and he is in the afterlife where ratings don’t count), and the Bengals have driven most of theirs away. These teams are probably both headed for 4-12, and it won’t be an interesting 4-12.
The Jaguars are the third most interesting professional football team from Florida. They can score points. They give up a lot of points.
The Bengals are the third most interesting professional football team from Ohio. They can score points. They give up a lot of points.
Since I have no idea what the hell will happen in this game, I will take the points. If you do bet on this game, please call 1-800-522-4700. Jaguars +3.
Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants +13.5
The Rams are a team that seems good. They score a lot of points. Sean McVay is a genius! Their defense seems pretty good. They have Aaron Donald! Their defense looked great against the Cowboys. Their offense looked great against the Eagles. Their determination looked great against the Bills, until it didn’t. So are they good? So far the only win their opponents, that they have beaten, have is that one insane Cowboys/Falcons game. I really am not comfortable saying they are. The Giants are bad. I am very comfortable with that.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
That the Rams are better than last year, but we don’t really know how much better yet. Their offense can look so good at times, but the key pieces won’t blow you away. They have a backfield by committee, some ok WRs and a QB who once had one of the worst seasons in NFL history, then one of the best. Understanding this team is like calculating the mass of the Higgs-Boson particle. We might get it, but it will take a long time, and there will definitely still be some questions. As soon as you think you see it, it decays into lighter particles that have a lower mass. The Rams I mean.
The Giants have no such mystery. They cannot run the ball. They cannot pass the ball. They cannot stop the run, and they cannot stop the pass. Could we be headed for a Subway battle for the number one overall pick? Dead ass? Dead ass.
I’m taking the Rams -13.5. Let’s play the new coach card here. I’m soooo scared of the Rams lack of mass though.
Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders +3
This game receives the honorary, “They Are Who We Thought They Were” game of the week. The Bills are exactly who I thought they were. A very good team with a strong offense, a defense struggling with injuries and a team that cannot seem to play with a lead in the second half of games. This has never been more apparent than in last weeks game against the Rams. The Raiders, meanwhile, are exactly who I thought THEY were. A pretty good team that can catch a team napping. The Patriots under Bill Belichick do not nap, so they were beaten handily.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Raiders can take advantage of teams on the ground and in the air, when said teams are weak defensively. They can also play a little defense when the opposing teams are weak offensively. They are so clearly headed for 8-8 it should be the new team motto. “Just win half the games, baby”.
The Bills really need to resolve the issue of the second half. The obvious offensive issue is that Josh Allen is still a young QB. When the plays leave the game script and they start to get into stuff they didn’t practice as much, he struggles. That in no way explains why the defense suddenly sucks in just the second half though. In String Theory, physicists propose additional dimensions and a flowing network of new universes spouting up. I like to think that every snap taken by Josh Allen causes two universes to spring up, one that is good (15 yard run) and one that is bad (fumble). In each of these timelines, the following play could be good or bad. So every possible outcome of Josh Allen’s career is playing out simultaneously and exponentially. In this way, every single person with a Josh Allen opinion is right. Look out for the darkest timeline Bills fans.
My friends have been caught up in this long argument with another person about who is better, Derek Carr or Josh Allen. Those who want consistency, uniformity and accurate throwing choose Derek Carr. Those who want chaos, upside and big plays down the field want Josh Allen. This week is the Super Bowl of that argument. I will take the upside of Josh Allen in this universe, and pray they hold on in the second half. Bills -3.
The New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
Bill Belichick has been his usual self this season. His teams have had no trouble holding down teams with bad quarterbacks. His offense has found interesting ways to move the ball with the personnel they have. They will be a playoff team for the 94th consecutive season (statistics courtesy of FiveThirtyEight) under him, as per the license of his pact with Satan. The Chiefs did exactly what I thought this last week against the Ravens. A slew of trick plays and interesting formations ruled the day as they took advantage of the fact that there is no possible way to stop them on offense when they are trying their hardest.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Patriots only weakness remains elite quarterbacks. Russell Wilson tore them apart like they were a plate of hot wings and Peter Griffin was stahving. Outside of that, they bottle (nosed) up the Dolphins, and swash-buckled the Raiders.
The Chiefs just showed you what happens when they try hard, in case we forget. They score… and score… and score. And, when the chips are down, their defense can surprise too. Especially when their team gets the lead.
The spread is too high. If there is one thing I am confident of with Belichick, it’s that he can keep it a one score game. Patriots +6.5
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers -7
The 49ers shopping cart pushed by Paulie Shore crushed the Giants last week, and they get to go back to back with probably the worst team in football so far this season (non-New Jersey division). Even with half their regulars out with injury they cruised so easily, Carnival would be jealous. It felt, somehow, like the Eagles were worse off after their draw against the lowly Bengals. Sure they are a HALF GAME out of first place despite not winning yet this year, but failing to score in OT and salt away a game they needed felt like a knockout punch for this season (IF THEY WEREN’T A HALF GAME OUT OF FIRST).
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Eagles are bad at all aspects of football, and Carson Wentz’s teammates don’t like him (still). He is not good. They can move the ball, and they can stop the ball, but only for short periods of time.
The 49ers could run the ball ON anyone WITH anyone. They don’t even need to throw. It feels like they are running a wishbone offense at times. It’s incredible to think that the two best teams in the NFL last season ran polar opposite schemes. Their defense is good when healthy, which it is not. Last week showed it can be good when not healthy.
F*** the Eagles. 49ers -7 (I’m putting this in language Philadelphiles can understand)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers -7
The Aaron Rodgers Express Revenge Tour continues to gain momentum down the tracks and I think we can, I think we can, I think we can assume that it will continue unabated. I recently texted my friend, who is a Falcons fan, offering an intervention. I let him know he was in an abusive relationship, and it was time to move on. His response was a gif of a child crying into its hands. Bomani Jones, (former) Falcons fan, said it best.
What the Bleep Do We Know?
The Green Bay offense is unstoppable right now. They lost one of the best receivers in football and still scored a million points on a solid Saints defense that held down the Bucs very recently. Their defense is… pretty good, but probably should be better considering the game situations they are in.
The Falcons are an eternal threat to cover any spread because Matt Ryan is really good at football still, after all these years. The one thing he isn’t good at, is lifting terrible curses. Their defense is that curse (what did you think it was voodoo from that time coach Dan Quinn drove over that Haitian voodoo priest per anonymous sources?). Here’s a fun fact. Dan Quinn is a defensive coach.
I’ll keep riding the Aaron Express until he reads that first article I wrote questioning him and kicks me off like I forgot a ticket to the Polar Express. Packers -7
Let's be real, IDGAF about football much. (Go stillers.) When the Ravens win my household is mildly more content than normal. But your writing makes even football amusing.
Also. For the tree photo. Gotta argue #3 is the worst.