Overall Record: 62-54-2
Whoa! A 9-5 week! I know I am supposed to act like I have been there before, but technically, I haven’t.
In honor of my surge, here are some NFL analysts I am beating this season. Jason La Canfora, Mike Clay, Mike Florio, Maurice Jones-Drew, all of Fivethirtyeight, Will Brinson, Daniel Jeremiah, Tim Colishaw, Benjamin Hoffman (NY Times still struggling, I’m sure eventually they will figure out there is no home field advantage), and lots more that are less known. Hey all ESPN analysts besides Mike Clay… how about you call games against the spread like a real expert (or a fake expert like me). Anybody could figure out the Chiefs were going to beat the Jets last week. Join me in the big leagues.
At any rate, if you were worried that reading my nonsense was causing you to miss out on expert opinions… you are safe. Nobody knows anything. This week was a lot less volatile than last week, and a lot less crazy than I was expecting for a full moon on Halloween weekend. Let’s take a look back.
Best Call: The Dolphins defense. In my preview, I acknowledged that I was uncertain about three phases of the game, but I was sure about the Dolphins defense. That assessment was spot on, as the Dolphin’s defense tortured Jared Goff, and should probably be arrested for stalking, harassment and assault. The Dolphins dominance got so confusing, even the TV graphics guy couldn’t keep up.
After years of bad Dolphins defense, I am not surprised there is still some confusion. Tua ended up being bad in his first start, but it didn’t matter. Dominant. Honorable mention for correctly identifying the karmic load the Bucs are now carrying.
Worst Call: Cincinnati surprised me (and pretty much everyone else) as they easily beat a Titans team that was nearly undefeated headed into the matchup. I really wonder about this game, and whether it was an aberration or if Cincinnati is turning the corner. The more experience Burrow gets, the better he will be. Counterpoint, the rest of their players are pretty bad.
Bad Beat: The Chargers blew their 4th straight double digit lead this week, this time as time expired, taking a cover with it. That was unfortunate. The tug-o-war for the title of Chokemaster Flex between Atlanta and San Diego (still not LA) continues unencumbered by success. This week, it was the Chargers flexing their lead incontinence. I’m not sure what’s more impressive, Justin Herbert building these leads, or the defense giving them up. Kudos all around.
Welcome to week nine. We have officially crossed over to the second half of the season. So far this season can be summed up pretty much the same way real life can be. Everyone is afraid of getting Covid and they were just hoping to get through the election in one piece without getting sucked into politics.
Since everyone is distracted reading about the election and all the horrors afterward, I doubt you are paying much attention, so let’s allow some Halloween hangover. This week, we will look at one thing on each team that is terrifying. We will arbitrarily assign each team’s item a terror level of one to five by movie director with no thought to accuracy. Like all of the polling websites. Level one will be Tim Burton. Level two will be Stephen King (the director remember). Level three will be John Carpenter. Level four will be George S. Romero. Level five is obviously Alfred Hitchcock. Hold onto something. This is going to get a little scary (no seriously).
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers +3
The 49ers injury list.
Holy shit. This feels very much like a curse situation. No way this injury list is an accident. The original 49ers shouldn’t have built their shacks on that old Indian burial ground. Oh, and Kittle is out for the year now, and Garoppolo is out again. Terror level: Romero
Aaron Rodgers crotch pumps.
Extra credit awarded on the terror scale for doing this on a TD that was reversed, with an ancient crotch, and for going on to lose this game by 100. Terror level: Carpenter
Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans -6
The Chicago Bears offensive punch.
No, not that punch. This one.
Yikes. That is some truly terrible, non-threatening offense. Terror level: Small Kittens
The Tennessee Titans lost to the Bengals.
Wow. That is scary stuff. After this, there isn’t much left for you as a team. This is like when a protagonist is bitten by a zombie. You know they are about to turn into a zombie, but they always let him live too long anyway. Once this happens, there is no going back. The Titans are now the Walking Dead. Terror level: Romero
I’ll take the walking dead to hold the line in this one. Titans -6.5
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings -4.5
The Detroit Lions being the best in the league.
At punting. Hey, best is still best. Terror level: Burton
Minnesota Vikings secondary.
When you are holding tryouts for people you plan to play that week, that is a bad sign. All year, the secondary has been the Achilles heel of the team, and the governor for any success. Terror Level: King
This last week against the Packers was a nice surprise for Vikings fans. It felt like the last heroic stand the gang makes in a zombie movie before they are overrun and all killed. Meanwhile, the Lions stunk. They do that sometimes. This game comes down to whether Stafford will play. I think he will. If he doesn’t, I lose. Don’t bet this till kickoff. Lions +4.5
New York Giants vs. Washington Football Team -2.5
The NFC East.
These teams don’t deserve their own section. Terror level: Hitchcock.
Just the thought of one of these teams winning is horrifying. Take the points and move on with your life. NYG +2.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills +3
The Seattle Seahawks defense
It’s not a good sign when you give up 27 points to a team that doesn’t have a quarterback. I don’t care if you win anyway. Terror level: Carpenter
The Bills’ Jekyll and Hyde.
This reality has gotten closer to the mean in recent weeks, without any clear reason why. He still has roughly the same players around him. The defenses haven’t been any harder. It’s almost like his performance is being randomly assigned by threads of the cosmos. Terror Level: Carpenter
I wish I knew which Josh Allen was going to appear here. My money is on Hyde. Jamal Adams will be back for the Seahawks which is good. I trust Russell Wilson more than anyone else here. Seahawks -3
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts +1.5
The Ravens clutch performance.
Not much scarier than a blank white sheet. Terror level: Romero
Philip Rivers needing to pass.
Philip Rivers put together his first week without an INT last week. Congrats. So, about the other 7 weeks… The Colts with Rivers are like the teen counselor who keeps signing up to work at that Crystal Lake camp those teens died at 25 years ago. Sure, it’s gonna be fun for a few days, but the ending should be obvious. Terror level: King
The Ravens lost their best cornerback and offensive lineman last week. Lamar Jackson seems to be having a lost season. Mark Ingram might come back. This is all bad news for Ravens fans. Counterpoint: Philip Rivers might lose the game. This could literally happen any week. It’s like the toilet bomb in Lethal Weapon. *Takes gun, spins chamber* Colts +1.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers +10
Sometimes… Patrick Mahomes doesn’t throw for 5 touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes is adorable. I love him so much it hurts sometimes. I’m surprised Rodgers didn’t shiv him under the table for keeping him there an extra 20 seconds. Terror level: Cute Puppies
The Carolina Panthers expectations vs. reality
The Panthers were supposed to be terrible this season. Nope. They are fine actually. Not great, not terrible. Of course, just like Paul Rudd, that doesn’t really mean I want to watch them in anything. Terror level: Burton
This game is the perfect brew for a surprise close game. Panthers strengths (getting McCaffrey back, pass defense, balanced offense) work to counterbalance some of the Chiefs strengths (primarily passing offense, defense designed to play from ahead). Carolina got an extra few days to prepare. The Chiefs have a major revenge game next week with the Raiders so it’s a look ahead week. The Chiefs might be rusty coming off their Jets bye. Panthers +10
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5
Jacksonville actually getting worse somehow.
Who the hell is that? He’s literally the red shirt. If a screeching bug monster doesn’t kill him by the third quarter, I am leaving the theater. Terror level: Romero
The Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins for nothing.
This is hilarious to the 3 of you that watched the Chornobyl mini-series. Look, it was one of the worst trades I had seen when it happened. It looks worse now. Dear NFL team that will hire Bill O’Brien this offseason despite this: you can do better. Do anything to get a better candidate. Maybe even seriously interview some minorities. I wonder where Hopkins ended up? Terror Level: Carpenter.
This spread is nowhere near big enough for a team with a quarterback who is going to have his head cut off when the matter transporter malfunctions. Texans -6.5
Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons +4
White boy dancing.
Oh, God no. Terror Level: Hitchcock
Atlanta’s new soft drink of choice
The battle is going to rage all season between them and the Chargers. Terror level: Carpenter
Say it with me… THE FALCONS LOVE TO WIN WHEN IT DOESNT MATTER. Falcons +4
Las Vegas Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers -1
The Raiders playoff hopes
This team’s never ending journey to 8-8 continues unabated. They will get there, but the road will be winding. Terror Level: Burton
Chargers wasting the best uniforms in the NFL.
Weird how this meme remains unchanged from San Diego days. It is deeply upsetting to see something that beautiful lose every week. This just shows you can take the team out of San Diego, but you can’t take the choke out of the team. Or something. Terror Level: Carpenter
This line is weird. Why are the Chargers favored? They are in much more dire straits. This is why. Vegas has to lose this one to keep the march to 8-8 going. This is the perfect unnecessary loss after a tough gutty win for them. Chargers -1.5
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys +14
The Steelers RN
Yikes. Watch your face NFL. ESPECIALLY you Dallas. Terror Level: Hitchcock
Dallas Cowboys trying to get through the year
Someday, it will be week 17. The terror isn’t really the Cowboys, its when you realize they are the only game on in prime time. Only like 4 more of those. Again. Terror Level: Hitchcock
Steelers -14
This line was 9 on Monday. Now it is 14. It’s not enough. During Halloween, a Yinzer witch opened up a portal to the future to look at Cowboys’ fourth string QB Cooper Rush from Sunday’s upcoming game:
Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals -4.5
The Miami Dolphins’ defense
Ouch. The sound of that hit was like the crunching of a skull with a mace. I'm assuming. This was 40% of Jared Goff’s drop-backs last weekend. Here’s a Dolphins linebacker throwing a fullback at a running back.
Holy hell. The Dolphins pounded, outsmarted and thoroughly outplayed the Rams. It reached the point where I was happy (as a Dolphins fan) when the Rams got the ball back. Terror Level: Romero
Kyler Murray’s happy face.
Hey, we figured out where DeAndre Hopkins went from that whole Texans thing! It's good to have things come full circle. Murray's joy has literally been sucked from the soul of Deshaun Watson like in Get Out. Terror Level: Romero
The Dolphins struggle against running quarterbacks. Always. Their three losses this year are Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. Tua is also clearly not ready to keep the Dolphins up in a shoot out. Cardinals -4.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5
Sideline tantrums
I am so tired of seeing Odell Beckham put his emotions ahead of his team. He even destroys team property. He needs to keep his emotions in check like a real man. It’s loser behavior. Just play better. Oops, this is Tom Brady. My bad. I forgot if you win the Super Bowl, this makes you a winner who cares too much.
Trading Michael Thomas
Saints ATS record last year without Drew Brees: 5-0. Saints ATS record without Michael Thomas: 2-5. Trading him would eliminate them as contenders moving forward. Terror Level: King
The Bucs will want payback for that loss earlier this year. Especially Tom Brady. Keep an eye on that karmic load the Bucs are carrying though. Bucs -4.5
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets +7
Cam Newton throwing
These throws are all AWFUL. And these are just the interceptions. So many incomplete throws coming up 2 yards short of the receiver. No one seems to be able to proffer up a good reason that he has been so bad. I will offer this. His only good throwing game in his last 20 games was against Seattle. Go back up and look at their bad thing. Terror Level: Carpenter
The worst football game in the world
This is the image that will haunt my nightmares. Jets vs. Jets. Imagine being a beat writer and having to watch this ALL WEEK. Terror Level: Hitchcock.
I genuinely believe the talent level on these two teams is a relative draw, but Belichick (who by now is seething at all the “Tom Brady was the key” coverage) is such a better coach than Gase, the spread would have to be 14 for me to take it. The Jets should not have any spread less than 10. Pats -7
"Yinzer witch" lol. Wasn't me :)