November 2022 Republican Presidential Power Rankings
No more definitive proof exists as to why our #1 is sitting at #1.
Welcome to the latest installment of The Duckpin Republican Presidential Power Rankings. These rankings will list, in my estimation, the contenders for the Republican nomination for President on a 1-10 scale. This list will be updated every month; maybe more once we get to late 2023.
The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the Republican nominee, but who is best positioned to win the nomination at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time. And we know what happens over time; one day you’re the flavor of the week, the next you’re yesterday’s news. Just ask Kristi Noem.
#10: Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (FL) (Previous: NR)
Suarez, who thinks Americans are “thirsting” for a new generation of leadership, is back on this list. He’s again floating the idea that he might run in ‘24. Though Suarez may run, it isn’t a coincidence that no sitting mayor has been nominated for President, much less been elected
#9: Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) (Previous: NR)
Gabbard was a Democrat until basically twenty minutes ago and remains a staunch leftist. But because that doesn’t matter to Republican voters anymore, it probably will have no impact on any potential 2024 candidacy. Realistically, she’s probably angling to be Trump’s running mate were he to win the nomination in 2024 as much as anything else.
#8. Sen. Tom Cotton (AR) (Previous: 8)
Cotton is one of the few people who helped themselves in the wake of the January 6th attempted coup. He retreated from his position on supporting the silly claims of election fraud and has tried to turn the corner on his obsequious Trumpism. However, he remains enough of a Trump supporter that he hasn’t completely alienated Trump’s base. His legislative record and his military service will go far if he decides to run, though his small voting base in Arkansas could hurt him. He’s also showing up in Iowa and New Hampshire and other 2024 early primary locations pretty consistently now and is now trying to cull favor with donors. That’s a clue.
#7. Gov. Asa Hutchison (AR) (Previous: 7)
Asa Hutchinson is the latest candidate who is dipping his toe in the 2024 waters. Hutchinson has a resume that used to matter to Republican voters: two terms as Governor, time in Congress, and Executive Branch experience running the Drug Enforcement Agency. Hutchinson has a bit of a weird background, however, insofar as he is both critical of Donald Trump and his role in overturning the election and simultaneously endorsing election denier Doug Mastriano. I don’t think that Huthcinson’s attempts to thread this needle are going to work out too well for him, as the mixed messages will be confusing. If both he and Cotton run, two Arkansans running will complicate things (see Bush/Rubio in 2016).
#6: Sen. Tim Scott (SC) (Previous: 6)
No person helped himself more this spring than Sen. Tim Scott did with his rebuttal to President Joe Biden’s address to Congress. The speech didn’t even help his much as the wild Democratic overreaction to it did, particularly with all of the disgusting racist comments Democrats directed at Scott. Scott raised his profile, both within the GOP and nationally writ-large, with his speech. It is uncertain if he plans to run in 2024, particularly with Nikki Haley thinking about it, but it bears watching; especially true considering he is now raking in boatloads of fundraising dollars. The entire situation regarding what his book may or may not say about running in 2024 is beyond weird, even if the publisher admitted fault. But not as much as a top Senate aide moving over to his political operation.
#5: Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (KS) (Previous: 5)
Pompeo had a bit of a moment last year at CPAC and there’s a bit of a buzz around Pompeo at the moment. He won 3rd place at the CPAC straw poll (which only netted him 2% support). Pompeo’s problem, other than the obvious connection to Trump, is his general lack of a political base. Being elected as a member of Congress from Kansas is hardly a wide political base from which to launch a presidential bid. Pompeo, of course, is boosted by his service as Director of the CIA and as Secretary of State. Pompeo may run, and originally it was hard to imagine him becoming the nominee. But Pompeo is already in Iowa and making a compelling case regarding protecting the Republican win in the Iowa 2nd District. His work with Donald Trump and the surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban is going to do him no favors.
#4: Former Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) (Previous: 4)
There is no question now with Christie; he’s running for President and running hard. Christie recently said “I’m also not going to be one of these people who’s going to say, ‘Well, I’ll wait to see what President Trump’s going to do.’ You know, I’m not going to defer to anyone if I decide that it’s what I want to do, and that I think I’m the best option for the party and for the country.” He even says waiting for Trump is disqualifying. Christie missed his best shot to run in 2012, and the shine was gone by the time he actually ran in 2016. I struggle to see what constituency he appeals to if he runs in 2024, Trump or no Trump, no matter how much he tries to out-Trump Trump. However, he has a book now: Republican Rescue: Saving the Party from Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden. His recent appearance on the Ruthless podcast made a lot of waves. All this tells us that he’s certainly running but as an anti-Trump, not Trump-like, candidate.
#3: Gov. Glenn Youngkin (VA) (Previous: 3)
All of a sudden Glenn Youngkin is dropping hints that he may actually run. In the latest sign, Youngkin took a walk on committing to serve out his full term. He took office with guns blazing, and conservative voters are taking notice. And now he’s about to go campaign for candidates across the country. Youngkin seems to have somewhat cracked the code as to how to appeal to Trump voters without alienating non-Trump voters or bending the knee to Trump. It’s a helluva tightrope to walk, but it’s a model a lot of Republicans will be looking to emulate next year. His ability to do that, his already existing national profile, his personal wealth, and a lot of the national media living in his state is going to give him a chance to continue to raise his profile. If he wants to be President, this might be his best chance. And based on his 2022 campaign schedule, he knows it, which is why he keeps expanding his schedule and profile the closer we get to the election.
#2: Former Vice President Mike Pence (IN) (Previous: 2)
“Well, there might be somebody else I prefer more.”
Mike Pence’s answer as to whether he would vote for Trump in 2024 or not unequivocally answered the question of whether he was running in 2024 without answering. Not that his 2024 activities didn’t tell us already. Pence’s profile in this race is similar to that of Joe Biden when he ran in 2020. Arguably, Pence is the most qualified candidate in the field: he’s been a small business owner, a Congressman, a Governor, and of course Vice-President. That last part is what will trip him up. In a primary election, Pence will be hampered by the Trumpiest part of the Republican base that is mad because Pence didn’t violate the law, the Constitution, and common sense and unilaterally throw out the results of the 2020 Presidential Election. One thing, though, that does show the problems that Pence has with the pro-Trump elements of the party is his perceived “disloyalty” to Trump for not going allow with the attempted Trump coup of January 6th, for which he was booed at the Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference.
#1: Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL) (Previous: 1)
DeSantis answered the call when it came to the Hurricane Ian response. He passed that test with flying colors. But do you know how you can tell DeSantis is the frontrunner in this race right now? It’s because of Donald Trump’s scheduled rally in Florida with Marco Rubio that’s two days before the election. DeSantis is not invited. That speaks volumes.
Dropping Out: Larry Elder (#9), Liz Cheney (#10)