Here we are for Part 3 of our Conference Predictions Rollout for the 2021 College Football Season, looking at order of finish, storylines that will dominate the discussion for each conference and the coach on the hottest seat heading into the season.
If you missed the previous two installments, check them out here:
Part 1 - AAC, ACC & Big 10
Part 2 - Big 12, CUSA, Independents, MAC & MWC
Today we’ve got the last two FBS conferences, the PAC 12 & the mighty SEC. As always – feel free to tell me how wrong I am in the comments or on Twitter at @ReadyCFB – here we go!
PAC-12 Conference:
Storylines:
1. Will the PAC 12 finally get a playoff participant again? No one really sniffed it in 2020, Oregon and Utah had shots in 2019 but both got bumped off (in Utah’s case by the Ducks) and USC has just been mediocre generally – even with a year last year where they were undefeated until the PAC 12 title game. Oregon is the best bet this year but needs to figure out QB.
2. When will USC be…USCish…again? What does Clay Helton have to do to either be fired or get off the hot seat permanently?
3. Is the Chip Kelly thing finally going to take off at UCLA?
4. What the heck is going to end up happening at Arizona State with recruiting violation investigations? And – can the Devils just ignore it for now and embrace having perhaps their best team in what feels like a decade or more?
Order of Finish:
North Division:
1. Oregon – the class of this half of the conference, the Ducks are recruiting better than anyone in the PAC 12 and have the talent to make a run to the playoff – but they do need a QB and avoid the stupid loss.
2. Washington – hard to get a read off a four game season but Jimmy Lake does look like he’ll continue the steady and above average to great level of the program that Chris Petersen left behind. I could see them beating Oregon out (they did last year) but questions on the offensive side of the ball particularly linger
3. California – “IF” they can just be average on offense – and I think they can if their QB stays healthy – the Cal Bears are ripe for a move up. They will scare more than one team that’s “better” than them. They also need to break the Stanford hold on the Big Game rivalry – I think they maybe just will.
4. Stanford – lost in the 2020 COVID kerfuffle was the fact that Stanford looked better than it did by far in 2019. The question is whether David Shaw and the Cardinal have their mojo back or if that was a canary in the coal mine moment caused by the chaos going on all over the PAC 12?
5. Oregon State – one of the toughest jobs in the Power 5, Johnathan Smith has done really well to restore the Beavers to respectability – including beating Oregon last year in the Civil War rivalry. Can the Beavers move up beyond the edges of bowl eligibility? I have them 5th out of 6 in the North but I believe they could be in a position to win 6-7 games if things fall right.
6. Washington State- there’s been a lot of strangeness around the program involving the head coach Nick Rolovich and his old school manner, plus some odd things kind of left behind by Mike Leach and his regime. Feels like a lot of smoke, and not the good kind. I’m saying this is a down year for Wazzu.
South Division:
1. UCLA – you heard it here first. Now is the time with Dorian Thompson-Robinson back and (hopefully) health at QB, recruiting improved and a lot of returning production for Chip Kelly and the Bruins to make their move. This is a bold pick but UCLA was right there in several games last year and would have been in a bowl game had they chosen to go. We’ll learn a lot about them in their second game when LSU comes to town.
2. USC – like clockwork – the Trojans will do just enough to make the decision about Clay Helton not obvious. I’m thinking 9-3/8-4 with underwhelming wins and crushing losses to a rival like UCLA. It’s really time to get someone who knows how to drive this sports car.
3. Arizona State – the Sun Devils have a lot of talent and a lot that could potentially district them (see Storylines above) but they may have the best QB in the PAC 12 and nothing to lose. This could go really well or really poorly!
4. Utah – always solid, occasionally very good, Utah has juggled QBs and other offensive skill people a lot in recent years without it catching up to them. It feels to me like this could be different. Will still have solid season, but no South title this time.
5. Colorado – the Buffs were one of the really great surprises in 2020, getting to within a game of being the South’s representative and getting an Alamo Bowl bid. However, there is a little bit of a smoke and mirrors quality to what Karl Dorrell and the staff pulled off with a defensive back playing QB and other things breaking their way. I’m not saying Dorrell won’t be successful long term (though I was very skeptical at his hiring at the time), but I do think Colorado comes back to earth, possibly even with a 4-8 or 5-7 type year.
6. Arizona – this Is a full scale rebuild with a coach that doesn’t seem like the first choice of anyone other than the AD that hired him. It’s going to take awhile to recover from the ashes of RichRod’s firing and Kevin Sumlin’s underwhelming-to-outright bad three years.
Conference Champion - Oregon
Coach on the Hottest Seat:
It’s Clay Helton of USC and it’s not particularly close although there are some strange rumblings about Nick Rolovich at Washington State.
The SEC:
Storylines:
1. Is this finally the year for Georgia to pay off all their talent and win the SEC AND National Title? They were achingly close in 2017 (hello 2nd & 26!) and then suffered through a weird regular season loss in two straight seasons that kept them from being able to lose the SEC Title game and still get into the Playoff. Then last year, lack of a healthy elite QB set them back. This year the pieces all seem to be in place.
2. Will Alabama finally drop off…a little…or continue rolling with a new, talented but very green fleet of skill position players on offense including highly touted Bryce Young at QB? Defense was actually a weakness the last two seasons but there’s greater depth and experience now – could the Tide go back to needing defense to carry them? A lot to watch for.
3. Can Texas A&M break all the way through and beat Alabama in the same year as they roll through the rest of the league? They need a QB but a lot of other things seem in place.
4. LSU and Ed Orgeron – after an ugly 2020 following a perfect 2019, will the real Tigers and Orgeron please stand up? A lot of new faces on the coaching staff for second year in a row can be a bad sign – but LSU recruits as well as just about anyone in the country. We’ll see.
5. I’m not going over theOU/Texas to SEC in the future storyline again…but it’s certainly going to come up A LOT.
Order of Finish:
East Division –
1. Georgia – they have their QB now in J.T. Daniels (who appears elite), they have improved the WR room and the defense should be one of – if not THE – best in the country. The time is now.
2. Florida – the Gators lost a lot of talent on offense to the NFL but there are still playmakers and it’ll be interesting to see what QB whisperer Dan Mullen does with Emory Jones, a highly recruited QB who has been on the bench mostly the last two years. He can run – can he consistently complete throws on 3rd & 7 to move chains? Biggest question mark besides QB is if the defense can turn the corner. Florida probably ended up out of the national title chase because they couldn’t stop elite teams (see – SEC Championship game and Cotton Bowl).
3. Missouri – a 5-5 beginning for coach Eli Drinkowitz was encouraging and the Tigers have their QB and some real talent on both sides of the ball. Missouri will never be able to out-talent most SEC teams but I think they build on last year’s beginning to have a solid 8-win type team.
4. Kentucky – Mark Stoops always rates highly in my book because of how he does more with less in Lexington. However, the Wildcats MUST improve and become more diverse on offense to continue their run of bowl appearances. An offensive coordinator change as well as some other talent upgrades makes me feel they’ll be improved over last year and right in that 7-9 win range. I view them and Missouri as essentially neck and neck for 3rd place in the East.
5. South Carolina – under new coach Shane Beamer – who comes with a special team and overall assistant head coach background - it’s not clear what identity the Gamecocks will have on either side of the ball but I would expect aggressiveness. I have them leading the bottom three, eaking out fifth over Tennessee.
6. Tennessee – I was not enamored with the Josh Heupel hire – but I don’t think it’s hopeless, I expect there will be some exciting moments for the Vols this year. However, there’s way too much turnover with multiple star players transferring and the QB picture is as clear as mud. It’s going to be another tough year on Rocky Top. If they win 6 games they should build Heupel a statue.
7. Vanderbilt – I believe Clark Lea will win in Nashville eventually – and by win I mean consistently be in a 5-7 win zone. But it’s going to be ugly early.
West Division –
1. Alabama – I believe Alabama will lose at least one regular season game (three most likely in my book are @ Texas A&M, @ Florida or Ole Miss at home). I expect they’ll still represent West in Atlanta but there will be growing pains this season. You can’t expect to stay at the elite offensive level they’ve been at since 2018 with no drop off and the conference is strong.
2. Texas A&M – if they can find a star QB out of the competition they are having now, I believe the Aggies are poised to again be on the edge of playoff contention. They get the Tide at home. Whether they can win that and avoid weird slipups is the question. A&M seems on the rise.
3. LSU – Orgeron needs a solid to really good season to right the ship. I believe he’ll get to 8-9 wins. Max Johnson, to me, looks like a QB that can win games and the team should be well-motivated to wipe the sour taste of 2020 out of their mouths. But if Orgeron struggles to win 8 or the Tigers win less…watch out. They still probably have more talent than everyone else in the West besides Alabama.
4. Ole Miss – Kiffin has the Rebels playing a really fun brand of offensive football. Did the bowl game show some progress for what was a pathetic defense? If the defense can just be average, Ole Miss could be very scary. I think they’ll beat a couple teams they shouldn’t but may lose a bad game too. Still – I expect the Rebels to be at least 7-5 to 8-4.
5. Auburn – Look – everyone knows I’m a Tide homer, but it’s clear that Auburn is likely to take a step back before maybe moving forward under Bryan Harsin. They get a lot of their toughest games at home but this is not going to be your typical magical-mystery Tiger team.
6. Mississippi State – both the Bulldogs and the next team could be improved over last year but still finish pretty far out of the money due to how tough the SEC West is. I expect MSU to make a run at bowl eligibility but the talent level still seems to be a year away at least to begin maximizing Mike Leach’s Air Raid system. Leach also needs some alternatives to beat the “rush 3 drop 8” strategy employed by a lot of teams against his system when he doesn’t have a lot of elite threats.
7. Arkansas – see MSU above…I actually think Arkansas is trending up…but that could mean still just 4-5 wins and last place. Hope for the best.
Conference Champion - Georgia
Coach on the Hottest Seat:
There was a lot of turnover in the last two off-seasons, yielding to first or second year coaches at 8…EIGHT…SEC schools. The hottest seat has to be Ed Orgeron of LSU, which seems unthinkable coming off a 15-0 National Championship in 2019, just over a year and a half ago and I still have Orgeron in my list of top coaches in the sport – barely. That’s how how bizarrely bad and mismanaged the Tigers looked in 2020 after Orgeron replaced his two coordinators with pretty bad hires in retrospect. The Tigers did make it to 5-5 on the strength of a huge upset late in the season at Florida and a closing shootout with Ole Miss. I say “made it” because it looked like they might finish 3-7. If Orgeron gets the Tigers back to 9 wins or so this year, he should be fine but a mediocre 6-7 win season coupled with the turmoil off the field in Baton Rouge (most of which is not linked to Orgeron) would likely mean his ouster.
The Sun Belt:
Storylines:
1. The Sun Belt has really become the Fun Belt - several years ago it was considered possibly the worst G5 conference by many - now it’s competing to be the best. You could argue that it’s top half last year (Coastal Carolina, Louisiana and App St) were the best top 3 of any G5 conference. The Sun Belt has probably passed the Mountain West - although the worst of the Sun Belt drags it down some. Will we see continued progression this year?
2. Can Louisiana shock the world (but the world shouldn’t be) and go beat Texas on the road to open the season? There are some other great Sun Belt matchups out of conference as well. Win a couple upsets early and Louisiana, App, Coastal and others may be in the national consciousness as we head into October.
3. Can Georgia Southern right the ship to ascend back to being one of the top programs in the league? What does Georgia State’s growth in metro Atlanta mean for Southern, and even for a power conference school like Georgia Tech’s recruiting? How will Butch Jones do back on the sidelines as a head coach - this time at Arkansas State which has become a modern “Cradle of Coaches”? So many good storylines!
Order of Finish:
East Division:
1. Appalachian State - they’ve been the bully on the block in the Sun Belt until last season. I think they will “rebound” (not that they’ve been bad) and get back on top of Coastal Carolina et al to win the East.
2. Coastal Carolina - following up on a dream season for this still-new D1 program, the Chanticleers will ride a creative offense and tough defense this year - I feel like there could be some adjustments and steps back so I have them second.
3. Georgia Southern - trying to build on a solid year to get back into championship contention
4. Georgia State - slowly building something in Atlanta, may be a year or two away from being a really good program. Will scare some teams.
5. Troy - the wheels seem to have come off following the loss of head coach Neal Brown to West Virginia a couple years ago.
West Division:
1. Louisiana - I expect them to be dominant. Billy Napier has built a machine and a great culture here - and turned down some high profile P5 head coaching opportunities to hang around. They have basically everyone back from an elite team last year.
2. Arkansas State - while the Wolves have not won the league recently, they have remained a solid program. Butch Jones brings an understanding of running a successful program (don’t laugh Tennessee fans, you’d kill for 8 wins now and he won at Central Michigan and Cincy). Plus he’s spent time with Saban at Alabama. This won’t be a dream season but I expect good things in Jonesboro.
3. South Alabama - breaking in a new coach - I could see all three of the teams I’m about to mention in any order of finish. I think USA’s future is bright - but this will be a year of adjustment.
4. Texas State - into year 2 of the Jake Spavital experience, Texas State has signed a TON of transfers out of the portal and is obviously banking on that to jumpstart the program. It’s really risky - even if it works you can set yourself up for trouble in a couple years because you didn’t sign a big enough recruiting class. I’m still expecting them to be not great.
5. Louisiana-Monroe - Terry Bowden and OC Rich Rodriguez et al really have their work cut out for them here. There’s not much institutional support, although there is access to Louisiana talent - but UL gets the pick of that. I actually think Bowden might work out to at least get interest going in program but it’s going to be a LONG long year.
Conference Champion - Louisiana
Coach on the Hottest Seat:
Chip Lindsay - Troy: Only two years in but the Trojans have failed to break .500 each year. This is a huge year on the Plains for Lindsay.
That’s a wrap on previewing the 2021 College Football Conference Season. Next I’ll be coming out with Top 25 and playoff predictions. As always, feel free to drop a comment or hit me up on Twitter @ReadyCFB.