September 2023 Maryland U.S. Senate Power Rankings

Is there even an election happening?

Well, it’s time for a new Power Rankings. Between now and the Maryland Primary next April, we will be ranking the announced and potential candidates for U.S. Senate in order of the likelihood of their election next November.

The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the winner, but who is best positioned to win the election at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time.

I’m not sure anything is actually happening in this race but let’s dive in.

#10: Token Republican Nominee (R) (Previous: #10)
The best outcome for Republicans, frankly, is to nominate this candidate.

After Dan Cox was nominated statewide, it’s the only way to avoid whatever embarrassment the likely choice of Republican voters is. And given the announced candidates so far? I mean, Ray Bly, Robin Ficker, and Lorie Friend combined L’s than a dictionary. Yikes.

#9: Brian Frydenborg (D) (Previous: #NR)
One of Frydenborg’s goals topics of interest is “How to defend the practical and results-oriented Democratic Party from far-left extremists that want to hijack it and put all that has been accomplished at risk.” He’s barking up the wrong primary voter tree with that in Maryland…..

#8: Moshe Landman (G) (Previous: #9)
The only bright side for Mr. Landman is that he’ll make it to the general election ballot, which is more than I can say for most people on this list.

#7: Jerome Seagal (D) (Previous: #8)
This is now Segal’s sixth run for political office if you count his abandoned plan to run for the Democratic Party Presidential nomination against Joe Biden for 2024. Segal’s run for U.S. Senate will ultimately end up just as pointless as all his other runs for office

#6: Delegate Jon Cardin (D) (Previous: #5)
Sure, why not take a shot at your uncle’s Senate Seat as he’s retiring right? Cardin ran a widely-panned run for Attorney General in 2014 that netted him only 30% of the vote in a three-way race. That might be enough to sneak through a Democratic primary if he gets in and muddles the field up. Cardin is probably best known for his stunt involving the misuse of Baltimore City Police Resources during his 2009 marriage proposal.

#5: Juan Dominguez (D) (Previous: #6)
A new Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate who, according to his website, “is a proud graduate of The United States Military Academy at West Point (‘89) and is a Gulf War Veteran.” His campaign is highlighting China, Crypto, Big Tech, and Israel as the biggest issues. That probably won’t go far in today’s Maryland Democratic Party. Nor will the fact that he served on a city council in New Jersey as a Republican (a fact weirdly omitted by Maryland Matters in a recent story). And yet Dominguez, the one Latino candidate for U.S. Senate, is being excluded from a Senate debate being held by the Prince George’s County Latino Democratic Club. Which is insane. So he’s obviously scaring somebody….

#4: Former Congressman John Delaney (D) (Previous: #5)
John Delaney was last seen making a quixotic run for President in 2020 that didn’t get very far. Delaney has, mostly, been out of the game since he dropped out of that race. With his wife considering a run for his old House seat, I can’t imagine both Delaneys would seek to run this year.’

#3: Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando (D) (Previous: #5)
The likelihood that a County Councilman is going to make the jump to U.S. Senate is slim and none, even if he did raise $525,000 in the 2nd quarter. Jawando first ran for Congress in 2016 before getting elected to the County Council the following cycle. My guess was always that Jawando is waiting to see what Jamie Raskin does and since Raskin is running for re-election, Jawondo will continue tilting at this windmill.

#2: Congressman David Trone (D) (Previous: #4)
Troune announced his candidacy the day after Ben Cardin announced his retirement, and the crowd went mild. There is no doubt that Trone will spend millions in order to buy the seat win the campaign, telling some associates he is prepared to spend up to $50 million. He’s already spent $5 million. While that is all well and good, can Trone create enough enthusiasm among the Democratic base to win the nomination? It’s not likely, but he is making the rounds of the rubber chicken circuit and campaigning in person with Democratic activists.

#1: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) (Previous: #4)
The second Alsobrooks announced her candidacy, she became the presumptive nominee. She would have been the likely frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Governor. Instead, Alsobrooks passed on the race and endorsed Wes Moore. For that, Moore and his political apparatus really owe Alsobrooks a lot. Not a coincidence that Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski passed on the race and endorsed Alsobrooks for that reason. With the Washington area suburbs playing an ever-growing role in Democratic primary politics and with the election occurring during a Presidential election year, Alsobrooks will likely remain the overwhelming favorite unless her campaign really, really drops the ball. She raised $1.7 million in the 2nd quarter, which will keep her competitive with David Trone’s immense spending.

Dropped Out: John Angelos (#7)