In what is a culmination of a season where they were the two clearly best teams in college football, the 13-1 Georgia Bulldogs will play the 13-1 Alabama Crimson Tide on Monday night in Indianapolis (I know, right?) in a rematch of the SEC Championship Game, where the Tide upset the Dawgs 42-24. Oddsmakers have set Georgia as a 3 point favorite. The semi-finals saw these two teams clearly defeat their opponents (Cincinnati and Michigan) – with Georgia looking impressive on both sides of the ball recovering from their disappointment in the SEC title game and Alabama eventually running the Bearcats into the ground and winning convincingly.
Alabama has been the Death Star of college football since 2009 and after dominating in 2020, including a 52-24 victory over Ohio State in the national title game, the Tide is back again. This was not an easy year – and this is not one of the better Alabama teams of this run under Nick Saban. Struggles on the defensive side of the ball earlier in the year and some sloppy play on offense led to a mid-season loss to Texas A&M and then near losses to, frankly, inferior competition in LSU and Auburn. However, just when just about everyone in the college football media (including yours truly) was skeptical that they could win, Bryce Young had the game of his life (so far) and the Tide defense forced three INTs, leading to a huge Tide win.
For Georgia – until the SEC Championship they were the only team in college football that had not even been tested in their regular season. They never trailed in the second half and had never been behind by more than one score. Then, after the disappointment in Atlanta, the Bulldogs curb stomped the Michigan Wolverines in the semi-final Orange Bowl. The Bulldogs responded to adversity very well and most (but not all) prognosticators are picking them to end their 41 year drought and win the national title – with Kirby and the Dawgs exercising the Saban/Alabama demons along the way.
So – to the game. The line is Georgia favored by 3 points. The score of the SEC Championship game is probably not indicative of what the final will be here. However, one thing was revealed about Georgia. The key for the Bulldogs is being able to run their entire offense and not have to throw down multiple scores, especially in the second half. If Stetson Bennett can run their entire offense and keep the Tide off balance, Georgia probably has the horses on defense to hold down the Alabama offense. That’s a huge recipe for success for Georgia. The second key is Georgia holding up better in the back end on defense. They had some big coverage busts, particularly in the first half of SEC Title Game, against Alabama and also failed to get consistent pressure with 4-5 (they got more than people realize – but Bryce Young is really really good).
On the flip side, Alabama’s defense has played lights out the last three games – if they can turn Bennett over like they have the last two times they’ve played (Bennett has thrown 5 interceptions in the two previous matchups he’s QB’d) AND Alabama can capitalize – that is the best recipe for a Tide win. The other huge factor is the injury to the Tide’s #2 WR John Metchie that happened right before half time of the SEC Championship. He had 100 yards receiving at that point and in the second half, even though the Tide scored 17 points to close the game out, one of those TDs was on an pick six and the other was on a deep ball TD to Jameson Williams early in the 3rd quarter. There was a lot of anxiety in the second half even as Georgia was behind by two scores most of the time.
The Big Things I’ll Be Watching:
For Alabama:
1. Can Alabama’s other offensive skill players step up to bolster the passing game with Metchie out. WR Slade Bolden had a very good semi-final but is more of a possession receiver. Ja’Cory Brooks has stepped up big twice late in season but can he provide every down consistency? Truthfully – the players to watch for me on the Tide will be the two tight ends, Jahleel Billingsley (elite but inconsistent playmaker this year) and Cameron Latu. If one of them has a huge game I think that’s what’s needed for the Tide to win.
2. Can the Tide run the ball effectively with a healthy Brian Robinson? They did very well in the semi-final but Cincinnati was clearly overmatched up front. Georgia won’t be. Robinson and his backup Trey Sanders were not healthy for the SEC Title game and as a result (along with offensive line problems) the Tide really didn’t try to run much.
3. Is Alabama’s offensive line mostly healthy? Two key linemen left the semi-final game and there’s not been a lot of updates since then. If both are out, could be a long day.
4. Can the Tide defense cover Georgia TE Brock Bowers up the seam and the RBs out of the backfield consistently? Huge X-factor is also WR George Pickens (see below)
For Georgia:
1. Stetson Bennett needs to stay turnover free. Can Georgia keep him in good situations – including run the football consistently?
2. As referenced above – can George Pickens stretch the Tide defense (there are some injuries in the secondary for Alabama for sure) and really put pressure on them vertically?
3. Can the Bulldogs block or play off Tide LB/DE Will Anderson – possibly the best player overall in college football? Georgia never let Michigan’s impressive pass rush get off the ground and stoned DE Aiden Hutchinson repeatedly. They won’t do that to Anderson but they can’t let him wreck them.
4. Georgia has to get more consistent pressure on Bryce Young – and do it without having to bring 5-6 all the time. Otherwise they may have the same situation they had in the conference championship game – I’m betting they’ll have that cleaned up. If Georgia can avoid giving Alabama any “cheap” touchdowns – or holding them perhaps to just one big play TD – have to like their chances in the game overall.
In honor of old White Sox baseball announcer “Hawk” Harrelson…players that may not be the biggest names but need to have huge game:
Alabama “Pick(s) to Click”: TEs Cameron Latu and Jahleel Billingsley – for the Tide to win they need some additional play makers in the mid-range to intermediate passing game and these two fit the bill. Billingsley in particular has the speed to line up at receiver and they both could be very useful down near the goal line or in 3rd/4th and medium. Will need them making key blocks as well in running game.
Georgia “Pick(s) to Click”: WR George Pickens – I’d expect the Bulldogs to try to get him the ball early and go downfield against smaller Alabama DBs when they can get the matchup they like. If he has a big game, it’s a really good sign for Georgia because it frees up the middle of field for TE Brock Bowers and the RBs. He’s also a punishing run/screen blocker.
The Bottom Line: (I don’t gamble, please rely on my advice at your own risk). I picked Georgia to win the national title at the start of the year. My heart says Alabama but my head says it’s really hard to win two straight national titles and beat the same team twice in about a month. I’m calling it Georgia 30, Alabama 27…but you know I’ll be rooting hard for the Tide. Should be a great game. Let me know your thoughts on Twitter @ReadyCFB.