… And for all a good blowout. The Ocho is here to take on the first round of the playoffs. As usual we will look at 4 surprises and 4 expected things.
Expected Thing Number one: Bills Mafia are the best fan base
I live in upstate NY, so I am surrounded by Bills fans all the time. Despite not actually being one, I have to admit, they are really, really great. They are unwaveringly loyal. So what if the Bills have never won Super Bowl, or gone decades without a playoff win until the last few years. I can assure you, they are all still 100 percent committed. In a cool twist, CURRENT NFL QB Ryan Fitzpatrick became a part of Bills Mafia Saturday night (and, uh, he doesn’t play for the Bills). Apparently Ryan just bought a ticket and came with his sons to just enjoy football. I love him so much. Bills fans had a fantastic time with him, as you would expect. They also made time to keep the annual tradition of chucking a Phallus (or should I say Phallice) on the field when playing the Patriots.
I love that Bills fans are so unruly, loyal, and passionate. I live up here, so I know how dark, gray, and cold it is in the winter. Getting by means finding fun where you can find it. Even if that means making one of the most unconscionable accusations there is:
Surprise Thing Number One: Kyler Murray is definitely not ready for prime time
Last night was a rough one for Kyler Murray, who looked totally out of sorts against a tough Rams defense. Earlier in the year, he performed much better, but as the year has gone on, he has been in a decline. This is the same thing that happened last year, and it opens the door for some questioning of the coaching staff, as well as Kyler. Are they making adjustments and self-scouting? Are they picking up on the changes teams are making? Beyond that though, Murray just had a terrible game. His decision to shot put the ball out of his own end zone was incredibly stupid (but not even as stupid as holding if for 4 seconds in the end zone to begin with). He missed numerous reads, held the ball, was inaccurate, and couldn’t generate much with his legs. It might be better to just burn the game tape here. It’s going to be a long offseason for him with that taste in his mouth.
Expected Thing Number Two: Elite quarterbacks and offensive coaches dominate the post-season.
If you were here to push for defense and running the ball, this weekend was not for you. The great offenses were flowing, putting up 34 ppg for the winning teams. The following non-offensive coaches found a quick exit: Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, and Rich Visaccia (also, Mike McCarthy isn’t good at offense, defense, special teams, clock management, or creating discipline, so he doesn’t really count as an offensive coach). Mike Vrabel remains thanks to his bye along with Sean McDermott. The following elite quarterbacks remain: Matt Stafford, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. Ryan Tannehill (again thanks to the bye) remains along with Jimmy Garoppolo as the only non-elite QBs left. If you think you are getting near the Super Bowl with a defensive minded coach and middling QB, you are really pushing against the odds. You need AT LEAST one, probably both.
Surprise Thing Number Two: Bill Belichick and his DC son are now responsible for the worst defensive performance in history.
No punts. No field goals. No turnovers. No Fourth Downs. The Patriots defense had 7 drives with a chance to stop the Bills from scoring a touchdown and couldn’t do it even one single time. That has never happened before in the VERY long history of the NFL in the Super Bowl era. This was bound to happen at some point, but it happening to a person who is widely viewed as the best defensive coach ever is startling. Why this happened is clearly up for debate. I worried heading into the game that the injury to Christian Barmore was going to be a huge blow for the Pats and open up the run game for the Bills, which could make them overwhelming. That is exactly what happened, but even that isn’t enough of an explanation. The Pats have a lot to focus on in the offseason, but this defensive performance is going to sit heavy for a while.
Expected Thing Number Three: The Raiders’ magic slipper fell off
The Raiders have had a marvelous run down the stretch of this season to get into the playoffs (for the first time in a while I might add). On Saturday, the slipper finally fell off against a better Bengals team. I admire that they kept the game close, only losing at the end near a potential game tying TD. This actually proved to be quite an accomplishment on a weekend filled with somnolent games. Ultimately, their shortcomings from a weak roster, to mediocre coaching, to bad timing lead to their demise. On the plus side, they fired perennially bad drafting GM Mike Mayock, and appear headed for a much needed reboot. The first, most important thing is to lock down Derek Carr. There won’t be a better QB available to them, so that needs to be step one.
Surprise Thing Number Three: Dak Prescott and the Cowboys run without timeouts pass on accountability after
While I am no Cowboy fan, I have largely expressed admiration in this space for Dak Prescott and his leadership. He usually says and does the right thing as the leader of the Cowboys, which is as pressure packed a role as you can find. With that said, he completely whiffed here when he offered support for fans throwing objects at the officials. Beyond being an obviously stupid thing to say for the danger involved, Dak dodged his opportunity to take responsibility for not getting down in time to prevent the officials having a role in the end of the game. He may also be upset about all the penalties called on the Cowboys, but that was not a one time deal. The Cowboys have been undisciplined all season, and it caught up with them here, most notably when they took a delay of game penalty after converting a fake punt, a wholly inexcusable blunder. The Cowboys cost the Cowboys this win through endless mistakes, penalties, turnovers and the kind of general mismanagement I would fully expect from Mike McCarthy (who remains a terrible coach). What I didn’t expect was for Dak to shirk responsibility for the outcome in this despicable manner. He is better than this, and I hope he realizes it and apologizes.
Expected Thing Number Four: The Buccaneers pound the Eagles soft zone defense
When I suggested it might be possible for the Eagles to upset the Buccaneers in my Mystery Box column (whew, what a miss), I was basing it on the Eagles offense, which I believed was capable of controlling the clock and keeping the game close. My biggest worry came to fruition instead. The Eagles zone defensive scheme, quite possibly the most conservative in football, let the Buccaneers control it instead. I was hoping the Eagles would get more aggressive and take away the middle of the field, which is the playbook for handling Tom Brady. Instead, they gave him those passes the entire first half, until the game was out of hand. The Eagles are going to have to get more creative and aggressive on defense to have any hope of being a serious playoff threat moving forward, and that is without even mentioning the improvements needed on offense.
Surprise Thing Number Four: The Steelers defense is dead
For decades, the one thing you could count on was the overwhelming nature of the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Even in recent years as Ben Roethlisberger moved from a borderline HOFer to a liability, the defense could at least be counted on to keep things close. Unfortunately, the tide turned on that this season. While TJ Watt was extraordinary, the rest of the defense took a huge step back. They were one of the worst teams in the league against the run (depending on your metric of choice). They didn’t see the magic of turnovers continue this year like in years past (they were average), and their secondary began to spring leaks, never more apparent than in the second quarter of Sunday night. While quarterback is the main problem for the Steelers, their defense is in need of a major upgrade if they want to seriously contend next year.
Yeah, the Defense minus Watt is rouuuuuugh.