President Donald Trump trails former Vice-President Joe Biden in just about every conceivable poll and conceivable metric today, seventy days from Election Day. The Trump Campaign specifically and the Republican Party generally have shown no desire to get themselves out of this tailspin, nor do they even act like they recognize there is even a problem.
But Trump still has a path to victory. Here’s why.
It’s not a coincidence that the Trump Campaign and the Republican National Convention have been talking about the chaos and disorder going on in our streets. The chaos is real. The disorder is real. And it’s being caused not by peaceful protestors seeking justice for Jacob Blake. It’s being caused by radical left-wing rabble-rousers who will stop at nothing to see Trump driven from office.
And Democrats seem intent on not speaking out against these riots and these acts of wanton violence. The Democratic refusal to speak out and act leaves Trump the small opening he needs to win.
Look, average Democratic voters and just about every swing voter do not enjoy seeing chaos in the streets. It is not something that positively moves voters in the direction of Biden. The more these violent outbursts continue as they have all summer, the closer these happen to Election Day, the more likely it is Trump can put together a coalition to win.
This, incidentally, is the same way that Richard Nixon was re-elected in 1972. Now, Joe Biden is not nearly as radical as George McGovern. Nixon was not nearly as scandal-plagued as Trump (at least insofar as anybody knew about). It won’t be a 520-17 electoral blowout like Nixon’s win over McGovern was, but it will be enough to give Trump an electoral college victory.
To be fair, President Trump has a propensity to stick his foot in his mouth and grab defeat from the jaws of victory. But if this trend of violence and silence continues, the President’s re-election chances will improve considerably. Democrats would be wise to figure this out and condemn the chaos if they want to actually win this election.