Welcome to week 1 NFL preview. I guarantee 100 percent uncertainty with all my insider picks. I say insider picks because I do most of my writing inside on my leather chair. I say picks because each week I will take a team from each matchup against the spread. If you are new to spreads, a gambling line is set each week to make each matchup even. For example, last Thursday, the line for the Chiefs Texans game was Texans +10.5. This means that if you pick the Texans and they won, or lost by less than 11, then you would win. I won’t bother with the Thursday games each week, since I don’t really care about the outcome of Jaguars games that much. We will focus on Sunday and Monday. This week we have a full slate of games. This is also the first week of the season when the line setters have the least info to work with, so hopefully we can find some easy lines
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings +2.5
Home field advantage doesn’t mean what it used to be. For the time being, these teams are all playing on a neutral field, which is a step down for every home team except the Chargers. Last year the Packers exceeded their expected wins in a significant way. Their overall point differential pointed to a team that was much closer to average then their final result indicated. They also swept the Vikings last year. The first match-up came with the Vikings having not yet opened up their offense, and the second came with Cook and Thielen out. Aaron Rodgers has been in a steady decline for the last 5 years. I think the Vikings are out for revenge. Cook and Theilen are back, and I would rather have the points in this one. Minnesota plus 2.5.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions -2.5
The Bears are still trotting out Mitch Trubisky, after having done next to nothing to improve the quarterback position. They also haven’t upgraded any of the skill positions. There is no reason to believe this team will be any better on offense than last year. Meanwhile, the Lions secondary got significantly worse than last year, and it was already bad. So the key match-up here is the resistible force versus the movable object. The Bears actually got the sweep here last year, but there was a very important difference. Those games were started by a Driscoll and a Blough, not a Stafford. With Matt Stafford back, I expect the Lions to win, even with the loss of Kenny Golladay. Lions -2.5
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars +8
The Colts are obviously a lot better than the Jaguars (everyone will be this year). This match-up has me a little nervous though. First, Philip Rivers did not have much time to get rapport with his receivers in the pre-season (even if he already knew the offense). The Jaguars also have some interesting pieces for the inevitable late race to cover. Minshew and Chark Jr. are both solid players, not chumps. Ultimately, I am going to ride with the Colts, but it isn’t with much confidence. I am too worried that this year’s Jaguars are going to start out like last years Dolphins. Colts -8
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers +2.5
The Carolina Panthers are working a ton of new pieces together. They have a new coach, QB, coordinators and no Luke Kuechly (their defensive QB). Typically, a new offense and defense has an advantage in week one, because no one has really seen it yet to scout. This year, though, what it means is that the Panthers will have very little practice together on these new schemes. While I think the Panthers will cover a lot of lines this year, I like the Raiders continuity here, even if I don’t like their team much. Raiders -2.5
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills -6.5
The Jets got worse this off-season, somehow. They subtracted from their secondary, didn’t improve their skill positions, and didn’t provide a real second option if Sam Darnold continues to struggle. Meanwhile, the Bills added a number 1 receiver and more good pieces to their defense. There was a time at the start of last season when these teams were neck and neck. That feels like 5 years ago. The Bills defense itself will be overwhelming to the skill-less Jets offense, while I think another year of seasoning for Josh Allen leads to more from the offense. Bills -6.5
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons +1.5
This is the most confusing line of the week. The Seahawks are a dramatically better team than the Falcons. While they are typically weak on the road, the absence of a crowd here means the Seahawks are at a neutral site. They have full continuity in basically all aspects of their team, and added a critical piece in Jamal Adams to address their inability to cover tight ends. Meanwhile, the Falcons were flat out bad this year, got worse at tight end and running back and didn’t really address the total absence of a pass rush. I see no way the Falcons cover this line. I feel like it should be closer to 5 that 1.5. Free money if you want it. Seahawks -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team +5.5
I don’t like the absence of continuity for this Washington Footbal Team at all. They have a new coach in Ron Rivera, and they are working in some new pieces in several places. Here’s the thing though. Their coaching last year was so bad, that Ron Rivera is a huge upgrade. So, while continuity is an issue, the gap is completely neutered by the improvement in the coaching. They added some nice pieces in the off-season (namely Chase Young), and they have added speed in the skill positions. Their defensive line is going to wreak some havoc this year, even if the secondary is a bit porous. Meanwhile, I don’t trust the Eagles at all. Last year they made a habit of losing games they shouldn’t. They did nothing to improve at WR, Miles Sanders is out, and the defense has plenty of holes. I am still not even sure if Carson Wentz is good. I like the Washington team to cover but fall a little short of the win. Washington +5.5
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots -7
The Patriots are the Patriots, and this line reflects that. The oddsmakers are betting that Bill Belichick will have this team ready to roll right from the start. I don’t doubt he will either. Cam Newton will have some work to do to really get up to speed here, which is a concern, but a lot of the team is still the same. Their defense should remain excellent. However, I am concerned about them covering a line this big. I don’t think they are going to rack up a ton of points on vastly improved Dolphins secondary, and much stronger defensive line. I don’t think they have the skill pieces they had last year, and they weren’t that good last year either. The Dolphins offense has a lot of continuity and gets back Preston Williams. They also improved their offensive line. Ultimately, I think the Dolphins cover here, even if it is just a back door cover. If this line was less than seven I would be more concerned. I think the Dolphins are gonna muck up a lot of lines until odds makers realize how much more talent they have this year. Dolphins +7
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens -7.5
This line is almost identical than the one above, but the gap in talent between these two teams is much bigger. The Ravens are loaded, and angry after getting shocked by the Titans last year. Meanwhile Cleveland is in a similar boat with the Washington FT situation, where they have a new coach and they are missing continuity, but their old coach was so bad, it might be a new neutral. I think the Browns will be better positioned to beat the spread in their second meeting with the Ravens. This time, I think the Ravens take out a lot of anger here, and get the bad feelings from last season out of their system. Ravens -7.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals +2.5
This is another mystery line for me. The Chargers have full continuity (Taylor was the backup there last year and knows the offense). Their defense is loaded (sadly the loss of Derwin James will hurt). They are going to be a challenge for each team they match up with, and for the first time in 3 years, they aren’t playing every game on the road. They aren’t playing ANY on the road, really. I really like Joe Burrow, and I think he will become dangerous as the year wears on. However, I am not impressed with their coaching staff (which got next to nothing out of last years team), and their defense is shambolic (and Geno Atkins is out) still, with almost no improvements. I think the Chargers are going to crush the Bengals in this one, as Joey Bosa welcomes Joe Burrow to the NFL. Chargers -2.5
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers -6.5
The 49ers are sitting in the super bowl hangover slot this year, and they lost several pieces from last year. They added some young skill players, but those pieces aren’t really ready yet. I will never trust Jimmy Garoppolo. Meanwhile, the Cardinals shored up a major hole in the draft, adding a LB who can cover the tight end. I think this piece will be critical in slowing George Kittle a bit. Kyler Murray’s development will be helped by another offseason and the addition of star WR DeAndre Hopkins. While I think the 49ers will hang on, 6.5 is too generous for me. I will take the Cardinals +6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints -3.5
The kings of continuity Saints vs. the suddenly relevant Buccaneers should tell us a ton about what is going to happen in the NFC south this year. To me, the lack of practice time for Tom Brady in a brand new offense means the Saints will probably get the drop on them. I am also curious to see which quarterback looks more washed. At the start of last year, it looked like Brees was more done, but as the season wore on, Brees got better while Brady got worse. Mike Evans being questionable tips the scales for me, and I will go with the Saints -3.5.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams +2.5
Everyone has been ogling the new Cowboys WR situation, and this has most of America putting the Cowboys deep in this years playoffs. I have some major concerns however. First, 3/5ths of last year’s offensive line is sitting this one out. That line was one of, if not the best, in all of football. For the last 4 years Dak Prescott has enjoyed an unfathomable level of protection. When that protection has slipped, so have his stats. They also have a whole new coaching staff, after letting the mediocre jason Garrett go, for the mediocre Mike McCarthy. On defense, they lost their number one cornerback with no replacement. Meanwhile, the Rams have strong continuity, unloaded some weak pieces in the off-season and have a full off-season with Jalen Ramsey. The clever Sean McVay has had a whole month to plan for this one. I think they will catch the Cowboys buying their own hype this week. Rams +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants +6
The Giants have a lot of good pieces along the offensive line and the skill positions. They have a new coach, however, who has never coached beyond special teams coordinator. They have a horrific defense. Meanwhile, the Steelers get back their quarterback, after almost making the playoffs without him, and instead using someone who sounds like a nephew from Duck Dynasty. I love the Steelers here. The Giants are going to make me nervous with back door covers all season, but the Steelers are going to come out fighting, and their continuity makes them a safer bet to cover. Steelers -6
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos +3
These teams are pretty evenly matched, but the recent loss of Von Miller and Courtland Sutton hurts them here. While being in Denver usually helps the home team with adjusting to the altitude, I think the Titans punishing style on both sides of the ball is going to wear out the Broncos. I also don’t think that Drew Lock is for real, and I expect teams to adjust to his preferences and punish him all season. I am expecting the Titans to get ahead early and salt things away. I would be less comfortable at 3.5, but with the line at a field goal, I will take the Titans -3.