Well, I told you the post-Brady era was going to be interesting, didn’t I?
With little hint that it was coming, the Patriots on Sunday night added former NFL MVP Cam Newton to their roster as their third quarterback. That, of course, completely dashed my expectation from last week that Belichick wouldn’t sign a big-name free agent and was ready to roll with Jarrett Stidham as his quarterback and Brian Hoyer (who returned to New England last year) as his likely backup. Now, it would appear that order has been completely up-ended, as veteran Cam Newton - who has four years of postseason experience with the Carolina Panthers, including a Super Bowl appearance - seems to be the obvious choice as the starter.
Or is he?
Cam Newton is an intriguing, capable, versatile quarterback to be sure, but he also has an injury history that should give Belichick pause. He’s faced a number of injuries over his career, most notably last year, when he lost almost the entire season. Both he and the Carolina Panthers insist that injury has entirely healed, but they weren’t able to find anyone interested in trading for him, and so he was eventually released. Given the lack of interest in trading for Newton or immediately signing him, clearly not only Belichick but the entire NFL was concerned about his injury history. That’s why the Patriots were able to snag him on a one-year, incentive-laden deal that’s so team-friendly that if Newton doesn’t make his bonuses, he’ll make just the NFL veteran minimum. All of that says that Cam Newton was far more interested in playing for the Patriots than the Patriots necessarily were in signing him.
It also means that if he doesn’t end up being the starter, he’ll get paid more like a backup: Brian Hoyer is earning the same salary without incentives. That makes this a low-risk, high-reward move for the Patriots. Even if Newton ends up being the starter and hits all of his incentives, he’d still be a cheap option for the Patriots - adding a capable NFL quarterback for barely more than $7 million is quite the coup.
The real motivation for Belichick to sign him, though, is to at least add experience and competition to the quarterback room. Regardless of how many times he insisted otherwise, it was pretty obvious to all observers that there was little chance that Brian Hoyer would ever end up as the starting quarterback. If he and Stidham were the only two QBs on the roster, that would pretty much mean the starting job was Stidham’s, and everybody knows that. The addition of Cam Newton to the mix means that Stidham has a real competitor for the job, which Belichick always likes to see at every position. It also means that if Stidham, or Newton, got hurt, he’d have a better option to replace them.
Newton and Stidham are much more similar to each other than Hoyer is to either one of them, too, since both are running quarterbacks. We haven’t seen whether Stidham will be able to run against NFL-quality defenses yet, of course, but the addition of Newton makes it clear that that’s the direction Belichick sees the team heading. That’s a fascinating decision, as it’s quite the reversal after nearly twenty years of Tom Brady, who usually only got yards on the ground with the occasional quarterback sneak. That’s a fine approach, as it protects the quarterback from injury, but there are Patriots fans out there who have been clamoring for a running quarterback for years. It looks like this year they’ll get their chance in that department.
Just as most observers were presuming that there was little chance of Brian Hoyer being the starting quarterback, nearly everybody now seems to be operating on the assumption that Cam Newton has the job locked up. While that’s understandable, given his pedigree, it’s also a mistake, given the unpredictability of Bill Belichick. Newton may have a history of success as a starting QB, but he also has a history of injuries - and he’s coming in to one of the most complex offensive playbooks in the league. Now, Josh McDaniels may be modifying that playbook as we speak to better fit both Stidham and Newton, but he’s not going to completely toss it out the window and start from scratch. That means that Stidham (and Hoyer, if we’re really considering him a factor) have an advantage over Newton: They’re already familiar with not only the playbook, but Belichick and McDaniel’s approach to coaching. Stidham has the further advantage of having spent a year learning from Tom Brady as his backup, and that’s always a plus for any quarterback. Quarterback transitions frequently seem to be easier for teams when the new guy has spent time on the team and has learned the playbook, rather than the playbook being re-written to fit him.
It may be that Jarrett Stidham earns the starting job, and Cam Newton ends up the year as a highly capable backup before departing for greener pastures. That wouldn’t be terrible for him, as it would at least give him the chance to learn from Belichick for the season. If he ends up earning the starting job, he might last in New England for just one year, giving Stidham even more time to learn and develop into a starter. He could also end up staying in Foxboro for a few years if things go very well, extending his current contract. It’s hard to imagine that he’s truly going to be a long-term replacement for Brady, though, given his age and injury history. Clearly Belichick isn’t betting on that, either, or he would have given him at least a longer contract, if not a richer one.
Regardless of how it all plays out, Belichick now has more options than he did last week, and without breaking the bank on a hefty contract or losing a lot in a big trade. That’s clearly good for the team, and it’s going to make for a more fascinating season, whenever it begins - although almost certainly not in the way everybody expects.
Jim Fossel is a Maine native and weekly columnist for the Portland Press Herald who may be found easily on Twitter.
Im surprised you think this will be a competition. I dont think Cam signs on for what was probably a tiny salary to sit. I expect him to start from day one. He is really good when healthy. And he knows how to turn garbage skill players into a super bowl squad.