What's With All the Twitter Doomerism?
The Sun comes up tomorrow, with or without Twitter. And the market will decide if it lives or dies
There’s a famous scene in Rocky IV at the end of the “exhibition” fight between Apollo Creed and Ivan Drago. After beating Creed to death in the ring, Drago says the following with no remorse or no contrition.
That’s where I’m at with Twitter right now.
I was a rather early adopter of Twitter, joining in April 2007. It has been an invaluable tool to me and it still is.
It is a good source of news, particularly about sports and the weather. There is no better social media tool for quickly disseminating severe weather information than Twitter since it is the last social media service that will provide information chronologically instead of algorithmically.
It has also served as a great networking tool. I’ve met some fantastic people on Twitter, including even my wife. It has allowed me to create networks, disseminate my work, and grow my audience. Even if it does sometimes devolve into a rotting cesspool of hate.
Many on Twitter, most of them power users, are lamenting the idea that Twitter is on its way out the door. There has been a practically eulogizing nature of people who often spend a good chunk of their day on Twitter dealing in news and commentary.
What I don’t understand is why there is such Doomerism surrounding Twitter and its plight right now. It’s a combination of concern over Elon Musk’s management of the operation, new settings being introduced, the disastrous rollout of the new “verified user” program only to be rolled back in less than a day, plus the mass exodus of advertisers from the platform.
But I don’t see the need for Doom and Gloom that everybody else sees for two very important reasons.
Twitter Has Never Been Profitable. Twitter is not worth what Elon Musk paid for it. Everybody knows that, most of all Elon Musk. No company built like Twitter is worth $45 billion, especially one that has never truly been profitable. That does not mean that Elon Musk wants to run Twitter as a loss leader, far from it. But he has the capital and the access to credit to keep the lights on for a long, long time. Plus, for every advertiser that pulls their advertising dollars from Twitter, there will be more who step into the void. All it will take is the leg work to reach those advertisers and convince them to spend.
Something New This Way Comes: CompuServe begat Prodigy begat AOL begat ICQ begat MySpace begat Friendster begat Facebook begat Instagram begat TikTok. The next big thing is always around the corner. If Twitter were to fail, those users would find a place to go. Whether it’s Mastadon (we’re there), Twitch (we’re there, too) or something else, internet users will adapt to the latest technology. Look, it is said that 90% of the activity on Twitter comes from 10% of the users or less. There will be enough people out there to migrate to something else to make that the new hot thing.
I don't think Twitter will be going anywhere in the immediate future. But at the end of the day, who really cares. If the market decides that Twitter is necessary, the market will ensure it stays afloat. If the market decides that Twitter is no longer worth the trouble, the market will move somewhere else. But there is no reason whatsoever to have a great national freakout about it.
The Sun comes up tomorrow, with or without Twitter.