Overall record 10-5-0
Well that was easy! A 10-5 record last week to start things off (I didn’t offer a pick for the Thursday game). This week I announced my Thursday pick to little fanfare on twitter @natronbacon. Week one is usually the easiest to get right because the odds makers haven’t fully adjusted to the new year, and neither have the bettors. This week should be more difficult. Before we go into this week, let’s look at last week.
Best Call: Definitely the Seahawks. I assured everyone that they would cover a measly 1.5 points. That was decided before the 1st half was over. That will probably be the easiest pick of the year. My favorite counterpoint attempt comes from the NY Times which assured it’s readers the Falcons would cover because Matt Ryan is really good at home (apparently forgetting that teams no longer have home field advantage). Hey, you gotta get some content for that subscription price.
Worst Call: Probably the Colts. I was very nervous about them covering the spread and they lost outright. I am disappointed I didn’t listen to myself on that one. Hopefully you heeded my warning that the Jaguars aren’t total chumps, and not my suggestion to pick the Colts.
Bad Beat: Tough call between the Lions (dropped TD pass to win and cover) and the Titans. Let’s go with the Titans who saw the most accurate kicker in NFL history set fire to 10 points in missed kicks as they failed to cover by .5 points. Woof.
This week you will notice a theme. Favorites. Normally, it is not wise to take a ton of favorites like this, but I think we will get one more week before the odds makers and the betting public figure out what is happening. In the past, underdogs have been boosted by home field advantage. Regular gamblers know to be wary of the home underdog. There is a reason for this. Teams get juiced to play in their home stadiums. Crowd noise helps their defense be better than it should be. More than anything it helps with momentum. When an underdog takes the lead at home, the crowd buys in, and that flux can make a huge difference in the outcome. Remember this?
Playoff home underdog. All of that is gone. The crowd noise is gone, the momentum is gone, the help for the defense is gone. The reason teams are usually underdogs comes down to bad quarterbacking. Now that there are no road games to challenge the offenses that have great QBs, they can run amok with nothing left to hold them back against a bad defense. Last week, despite the short training camp, offenses were running at full steam for the most part (LOL Jets). I think this is a trend that will continue, and I think the winners are the teams with the great QBs. Those teams are typically already the favorites, so I am pounding the favorites for another week until the odds-makers adjust.
Thursday Night Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns -6
On twitter I chose the Bengals +6 and I was gifted the backdoor cover by a crummy Browns defense despite the Browns winning 35-30. The lesson here is: the Browns will let you down somehow. EVERY Browns fan knows exactly what I am talking about. As for the Bengals, Joe Burrow is already as good as Baker Mayfield and it’s been 2 games. Look out.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans -9.5
I am very worried about the Jaguars rush defense. They gave up a ton of yards to the Colts on the ground, and only Philip Rivers being totally washed kept them in the game. The Titans have the hippopotamic land mass that is Derrick Henry. The Titans defense will be better this year than last, when it was already good. I don’t think the Titans will make the same unforced errors the Colts made last week, and I don’t think the Jaguars can go back to back with good performances. Overall, I like the Titans -9.5 because I simply don’t think the Jags can slow Derrick Henry and his 6’3” 238 (they struggled with Nyheim Hynes’ 5’9” 196 last week).
New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears -5.5
Neither of these teams is very good. They are both confounding, and you could get a good or bad game out of either at any time (or a good or bad half… or quarter). For me, the difference is continuity. The Bears have it and the Giants don’t. We only get a few more weeks to use continuity, so lets do it while we can. This year there are 5 new coaches and they went 1-4 ATS (and 0-1 this week so far). Ron Rivera is the only one with a win ATS, and he is very experienced. While this is a lot of points to entrust to a very hit and miss Bears offense, I am deeply suspect of both the offense and defense of the Giants, as Saquon Barkley was held to 6 yards on 15 carries last week. That is one yard away from the fewest yards EVER on 15 carries. Ultimately both these teams are so enigmatic that I probably wouldn’t bother betting this game. Gun to my head I’d take the Bears -5.5.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys -5
Here is an image of our president and vice president warming themselves to the glow of the Falcons’ secondary, which hasn’t recovered from what Tom Brady did to them in that Super Bowl. After getting annihilated by a scintillating Russell Wilson week 1, they get to be carved up by the consistently strong Dak Prescott and his cadre of receiving stars. I still don’t love the Dallas defense or offensive line, but the O-line won’t matter this week because the Falcons can’t generate a pass rush. Plus, that guy at the NY Times said Matt Ryan was better at home, and this game is in Dallas, so I guess that means he will lose. I am still concerned about the Falcons ability to pull a backdoor cover out of their collective butts, but I have a bad feeling this is the year everything falls apart for them. I mean falls apart more than normal. Cowboys -5
Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Ben Roethlisberger shook off the rust (belt) to lead the Steelers to a convincing win over the Giants and the Broncos should have gotten smoked by the Titans (but for those 10 kicker points). I simply do not believe that Drew Lock knows how to use the weapons they have there, and the Steelers defense is smothering. The loss of Von Miller stings too, and I think Roethlisberger is going to continue to pick apart teams that can’t get to him. If it weren’t for Chargers/KC, this game would have the biggest gap in QB quality and the team with the good QB also has the good defense. I don’t see how the Steelers lose this game, and I expect them to cover. Steelers -7
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts -3
What a tough game to call. It’s going to be like watching Darth Vader and Kylo Ren compete to force choke themselves the fastest. These two teams choked big time in week one, putting the onus squarely on both of them to pick it up in week two. Both teams have fatal flaws: the Vikings secondary and the Colts quarterback, and those flaws counteract one another. I simply don’t think the Vikings will be able to take advantage of the glaring weakness the Colts have, and this being week two, Rivers should start getting a little more comfortable on offense, but let’s not forget that there is nothing in this life more certain than Philip Rivers down a touchdown, trying to drive the length of the field with 23 seconds left. Colts -3 but with great hesitation (no one should bet on the Colts this year without great hesitation). This is really just a condemnation of the Vikings for making me look stupid last week.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9
Tom Brady put up a vintage Dan-Marino-from-his-last-season performance this last Sunday. I know, because I watched that season. I recognize the decline in arm strength and accuracy, the lack mobility, the yelling at teammates after his mistakes, and the poor throw that turns into a pick six. He could potentially be down 2 receivers with Evans and Godwin both questionable. I think the Buccaneers will win this game, I just don’t trust them with 9 points. Last year with the Pats, in the second half of the season Brady beat one team by 10 points, the Bengals. The downside of this pick is that the Panthers need Christian McCaffrey to move the ball and no one is more adept at stopping the run than the Bucs. Their defense is the one unit in this game with continuity. I think the Panthers will have to throw to win, but with another week under his belt in the new offense, I think Bridgewater can do enough to cover the spread. This is my pick for backdoor cover of the weekend. It might even sneak up to ten if the WRs play, which would be great. Panthers +9
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins +5.5
The Dolphins are much better this year than last, especially on defense. The Bills, however, are a terrible matchup for them. The Bills swept the Dolphins easily last year, and the Dolphins consistently have trouble with running QBs. All five wins last year were against stationary quarterbacks and they went 0-4 when the QB could move. I expect them to have trouble containing Josh Allen here, and the Dolphins offense without DeVante Parker (questionable at best) should continue to struggle against a top notch Bills defense. This is the easiest call of the week in my opinion. Bills -5.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. NY Jets +6.5
If you remember from last week, I predicted the Jets to be downright terrible this year. Nothing about last week’s game changed my mind. The 49ers might not have George Kittle or most of their secondary, but I don’t think it will matter. An embarrassed and angry defense is going to rebound and smother the toothless Jets offense here (the player who was responsible for 45 percent of their offense last week, Jamison Crowder, is also out). Last week Josh Allen destroyed the Jets on the air and ground and also kept the Jets in the game with his turnovers and missed TD. I don’t think the 49ers will be so sloppy, and I don’t think the Jets defense will be able to slow the complex ground scheme of the 49ers. 49ers -6.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles +1
The Eagles looked just as pedestrian as I expected, succumbing to a Washington front 4 that obliterated their line without Lane Johnson (hopefully back this week along with Miles Sanders). The offensive line that was once best in the league has been decimated and the Rams will offer no relief. Aaron Donald will feast on the weak interior. On offense, the Rams are still capable, and the Eagles secondary is still bad. While I think they will be stout against the run, the Rams are more than capable of punishing them through the air. Are we sure Carson Wentz is good? Rams -1
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers -6.5
I have no idea how this line stopped at -6.5. The Lions were ok for the first 3/4 of last week, but then gave up 3 consecutive TDs to the worst starting QB in the NFL. They are still missing Desmond Trufant (no 1 corner) and Kenny Golladay. This week Aaron Rodgers will continue his revenge tour as he looks to obliterate everyone who once suggested he would Love being usurped by a new QB on the Packers. The Lions are fully capable of a back door cover here, but I love that the line is 6.5, not 7.5 to give me cover for a TD victory. I will also continue to NOT trust a coach who carries a pencil behind his ear and a laminated play sheet. That’s not how pencils work. The Packers defense gave up points to the Vikings last week in garbage time though, so this is something to monitor. Packers -6.5
Washington Football Team vs. Arizona Cardinals -7
Watch out for the Washington front four. Those guys single-handedly crushed the Eagles, and they can do it again. The Arizona line is weak, and has been for years. While Kyler Murray is fast and elusive, they are going to wreck the game plan for this
group. I also don’t think that Washington’s offense is terrible, and Arizona’s defense is not a world beater. The Cardinals held down the 49ers because Kittle went out and Jimmy Garoppolo is a dud, while Washington is at near full strength. What a difference decent coaching can make. Until odds-makers and bettors start to account for the ferocity of this defense, I am taking the, ahem, Football Team. I will take Washington +7 to cover, but I have to admit that Kyler Murray makes me nervous.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans +7
Houston is a mediocre team. Without DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson looks fallible, and the defense didn’t put up much resistance on the ground or in the air against Kansas City. Really, this game comes down to DeShaun Watson vs. the Spread. Can he provide enough points late in the game to save this cover? Maybe last year. The Ravens, meanwhile, are clicking on all cylinders and I expect playing on turf to make them even faster and more dangerous than they already were. Somehow, this home field is a slight advantage for the Ravens. I’ll take the Ravens -7
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers -8.5
I think the Kansas City Chiefs have unlocked their fullest offensive potential. Now that they can run efficiently with The Fresh Prince, there is no longer any weak point to attack. Teams that would sit back (like Houston last week) will simply be ground to dust. As a bonus, the Chargers are still without Derwin James, the only player who can match up with Travis Kelce. Last week’s game for the Chiefs was not even remotely as close as the final score indicated. I think we are experiencing a 2007 Patriots situation here, where the lines will have to keep escalating to a ridiculous level before they see betting action on the other side. The Chargers looked absolutely awful against the Bengals (who just gave up 35 points to the Browns) and were redeemed at the last second by what looked like a voodoo doll situation where someone shoved a pin in the leg of the Bengals kicker doll. I see no way they keep up with the Chiefs. I think that most of this line will vanish on the Chiefs opening drive, and you will have to play the rest of the game as a near pick em. No one wants that. Chiefs -8.5
New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks -4
This is the hardest game of the week to call. The Patriots were efficient and effective against the Dolphins, rarely struggling (they fumbled away a TD and missed a FG). Their defense looked like last year’s dominant group. Cam Newton has fit right in, and as long as he is healthy, he will look good. Whether he will stay healthy isn’t really a question for this week however. The Seahawks were nearly flawless in their dismantling of the Falcons. Outside of some garbage time points, they have no overt weakness now that they solved their trouble covering tight ends. It is tough to go against the Patriots here, but I think the Seahawks still have that continuity edge as Cam Newton looks to develop his knowledge of the offense. He won’t be anywhere near as effective running with Bobby Wagner hunting him down. The Patriots lost three games last year besides that one to the Dolphins that no one understands. They lost to Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. The theme here is that it takes an elite QB (that can move his feet) to take down the Pats. The Seahawks have this. Seahawks -4
New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders -5.5
The Raiders managed to hold on against a bad Carolina squad with no chemistry and an awful defense. They will get no such mercy here. The Saints are a juggernaut. While I don’t know if Michael Thomas will play, that is really helpful in driving the line down. They don’t need him to win this game. The Raiders have no pass rush and when the Saints show themselves to be a capable defense, it will be much harder for David Carr to throw. I don’t trust him to backdoor cover like some of the other better QBs. REGARDLESS of what happens with Thomas, I will take the Saints -5.5. You might want to wait till kickoff to see if he is confirmed out and the line dips a little more.