Do you remember last year when the national baseball media were burying the Orioles for not spending money on free agents and how the Orioles were “Exhibit A” for “non-competitive behavior?”
I do. I wonder what Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal would say about that today?
In April, ESPN predicted the Orioles would finish 54-108. They were given a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. David Schoenfield wrote:
If everything goes right ... Cedric Mullins builds on his All-Star season, Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez establish themselves as future stars, the pitching staff -- which had a 5.84 ERA in 2021 -- lowers its ERA by a run a game thanks to the fences getting moved back at Camden Yards, and the Orioles win ... 70 games.
The Sporting News predicted that the Orioles would win those same 70 games.
The Orioles of course won 83 games and were not eliminated from the playoffs until October 1st.
It’s actually an incredible feat that the Orioles won 83 games and finished above .500 when you consider everything that went wrong this year.
Incumbent All-Star starter John Means pitched all of eight innings this season.
Top prospect Adley Rutschman was injured and didn’t make his debut until May;
Top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez got injured and didn’t make his Major League debut at all;
Bruce Zimmermann, the starter for the home opener, both was injured and generally flamed out of the rotation;
The teams top two relievers coming out of camp were traded to Miami before opening day;
Veteran reliever Paul Fry was so bad he was designated for assignment;
Opening day third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez was so bad he was designated for assignment;
Former first-round pick D.J. Stewart exhausted his last chance.
And yet, this team got unexpected value from a collection of pitching castoffs like Felix Bautista, Cionel Pérez, Austin Voth, Bryan Baker, among others.
They also didn’t exactly have any player having an outstanding offensive season, either. The team batting average was .236. Cedric Mullins had the highest average on the team: .258, which was 33 points lower than his 2021 30-30 season. Only two players hit more than 20 home runs.
Yet, this team performed, roughly, to expectations too. The Orioles Pythagorean record was 79-83. In comparison, the 2012 wild-card team overperformed its Pythagorean record by 11 games.
It’s hard to keep a clear mind about all of this and focus on the successes when there were clear and obvious missed opportunities to make the playoffs. The Orioles ultimately finished three games behind Tampa Bay for the last American League Wild Card spot. In reality, it was four games since the Rays won the season series 10-9 against the Orioles. So there are a lot of what-ifs involving the club right now:
What if the Orioles did’’t trade Trey Mancini or Jorge Lopez at the deadline?
What if the Orioles didn’t get swept in the season series by the Detroit Tigers, a team that lost 96 games;
What if the Orioles split the early September four-game series with Toronto instead of losing three of four?
If the Orioles split with Detroit and won one more game against Toronto in early September, they would be playing playoff baseball Friday night.
With all of those what-ifs, it’s easy to compare this team to the 1989 Orioles team that improved by 33 wins and were not eliminated until the last weekend of the season.1 The rapid improvement alone makes those comparisons unavoidable. And yet, the teams are a little different. This Orioles team was expected to do better based on the emergence of some of the younger talent that was being stockpiled in the farm system. That 1989 team? Sure, they had a top prospect in Gregg Olson, who won the Rookie of the Year that year. Craig Worthington was the third baseman as a rookie, and he was a 1st round pick. Bob Milacki was, arguably, the best of the bunch going 14-12 as a starter and leading the league in games started.
And yet, the whole thing was a mirage. Guys like Milacki, Worthington, Phil Bradley, Jeff Ballard, and Mark Williamson all happened to have career years at the same time.
Everything you need to know about the 1989 team is that when the team finally made the playoffs in 1996, Brady Anderson and Cal Ripken, Jr. were the only players still on the team.2 The next Orioles playoff team will have a lot of guys on it from this year's team.
So what’s next for this team? Mike Elias says were are contenders now, and it’s easy to say way. But this is why Elias gets paid the big bucks. He has to figure out how to tinker with this team in a way that doesn’t mess too much with the chemistry this group has. Yes, glue guys like Rougned Odor and Robinson Chirinos won’t be back next year. But who do you subtract from this team? And who do you add?
Let’s assume this is the Orioles lineup right now going into the start of next season:
C: Adley Rutschman
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
2B: ?
SS: Jorge Mateo
3B: Gunnar Henderson
LF: ?
CF: Cedric Mullins
RF: Austin Hays
DH: Anthony Santander
Rotation: Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, Austin Voth?, ?
Is Kyle Stowers the answer in left field? Is Colton Cowser inevitable? Will Connor Norby get a shot to play second base? Will the Orioles sign a free-agent starting pitcher? Will Elias use the tremendous minor-league depth to swing a trade? Will Austin Hays even be back at all? Is Anthony Santander’s trade value at its highest? How does Terrin Vavra fit into this? Can the team afford to keep Ryan McKenna’s defense around?
All questions that will make this offseason fascinating.
For the first time in a while, the Orioles will be major players in the offseason. For those of us fans who stuck with them for five long, dark years of losing, ridicule, and rumors, waiting for this moment, we can’t way. We’re glad the team is back.
What if Pete Harnisch didn’t step on that nail? What if Mark Williamson doesn’t throw that wild pitch? What if Roland Hemond added more help at the deadline instead of just Keith Moreland (hit all of ONE home run in over 100 AB)? What if Brian DuBois was added to the rotation instead of being traded for Moreland?
Mike Devereaux and Billy Ripken were on both teams, but both left Baltimore and came back in 1996